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This Week in Explainers: Will Trump’s tariffs lead to job losses and recession?

FP Explainers April 6, 2025, 11:26:49 IST

Donald Trump has unleashed chaos and confusion by imposing a slew of tariffs on countries across the world. A trade war is in the making; economists have painted a bleak scenario, warning of a possible global recession. We talk about this and more in our weekly roundup

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A man reads a newspaper outside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) after Trump's tariff plan announcement, in Mumbai, on April 4. The levies have led to fears of global recession as a trade war looms. Reuters
A man reads a newspaper outside the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) after Trump's tariff plan announcement, in Mumbai, on April 4. The levies have led to fears of global recession as a trade war looms. Reuters

The world is on the brink of a massive trade war. On April 2, dubbed “Liberation Day”, Donald Trump unveiled expansive tariffs, sparing no trade partner. The levies amount to the highest trade barriers in more than a century.

The tariff crisis has unleashed chaos and confusion. US stock markets tanked after Trump’s announcement, marking the worst day since Covid in 2020; the US dollar wiped out all gains since the re-election. Global markets also saw a sharp fall.

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As the impact of the levies sank in, China retaliated with 34 per cent levies on American goods; Canada and the European Union have vowed to hit back. The others are waiting and watching. There are fears of inflation in the US and a possible global recession. It’s impossible to predict when this will end and where this will take the world.

Trump might be pleased with himself, but Americans are not. His approval rating has dropped to 43 per cent, the lowest since he took office. However, he has been constantly talking about a third term. But can he run again?

Talking about people in power, South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol has been removed from office after months of uncertainty following the brief declaration of martial law in December.

There is also speculation that Elon Musk will step down from Doge . And there is a warning that a megaquake will hit Japan.

We talk about all this and more in our weekly roundup.

1. Four months into 2025, we can say one thing with certainty – tariff is the dreaded word of the year. Donald Trump has sent the world into a tizzy, as he unveiled a slew of new tariffs from the White House Rose Garden. No one was spared, not even an island that is inhabited only by penguins. The tariffs start at 10 per cent and go up to over 50 per cent. Which countries were the hardest hit? Did India get a concession? The big takeaways from “Liberation Day” .

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US President Donald Trump appears on a television screen at the stock market in Frankfurt, Germany, on April 3. Global markets have fallen sharply since Trump’s new set of tariffs announced on April 2. AP

2. Donald Trump announced a universal tariff of 10 per cent across all countries, along with additional reciprocal tariffs with higher rates for 60 trading partners. The percentage varies. India was slapped with 26 per cent , while China with 34. He imposed 20 per cent duties on the European Union and a lower 10 per cent on the United Kingdom. But how did the White House arrive at these questionable figures? We explain .

3. Make America Wealthy Again. That’s the big goal Trump hopes to achieve with his tariff policy. But there is a likelihood that this will backfire. As some of the US’s big trading partners retaliate, inflation is imminent. America and the world could see a downturn as the economy slows. Is recession then unavoidable?

4. Trump has been in power for four months, and he has upended the world. His presidency lasts for four years, but he has plans to stick on. Potus has been repeatedly talking about a third term. However, the 22nd Amendment of the US Constitution restricts a presidential term to two. Is there a legal loophole which will allow him to run again? This story explains.

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President Donald Trump waves as he arrives on Air Force One at Miami International Airport. The US president has openly spoken about a third term and reiterated in a recent interview that he was not joking. AP

5. Days of uncertainty are over for South Korean politics. The country’s constitutional court on Friday (April 4) unanimously voted to uphold the impeachment of Yoon Suk Yeol. His short-lived declaration of martial law plunged the country into turmoil in December, leading to the suspension of his powers. Now the court’s verdict means the end of the Yoon chapter. What is next for the country?

A person holds a tablet displaying an image depicting impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol behind jail bars during a rally to celebrate his expulsion, in Seoul, on April 4. Reuters

6. Days after the 7.7 earthquake rocked Myanmar and neighbouring Thailand, Japan has warned about a megaquake in the nation’s Nankai Trough. The temblor could unleash a massive disaster, claiming close to 3,00,000 lives and leading to losses amounting to $1.81 trillion. Here’s what we know so far .

A worker looks at a car stuck on a broken road in the aftermath of an earthquake, near Anamizu, Japan, on January 3, 2024. The country is prone to such disasters, and now there is a warning of a megaquake. File photo/Reuters

7. Nithyananda, the self-styled godman, is back in the news. Accused of child abduction, sexual assault and abuse, he fled India in 2019. He founded the fictional nation of ‘Kailasa’ , which he claims is a ‘haven for Hindus’. Now, ‘representatives of his country’ are in trouble for trying to take over Bolivia. Here’s the complete story .

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Members of Nithyananda’s fictional country, Kailasa, were deported from Bolivia for allegedly attempting to seize land belonging to indigenous communities. Image courtesy: @SriNithyananda/X

8. You’d be living under a rock if you haven’t heard of ChatGPT’s Ghibli-style art. The trend that allows you to transform images into the stylistic Japanese art form has gone viral. From politicians to brands, everyone has jumped onto the bandwagon. As with all things popular, it has left the internet divided. Questions of privacy are being raised. Is ChatGPT using Gibli to steal your data? Find out.

That’s all from us this week. Have a good Sunday. If you are curious about tariffs, trade wars and other world affairs, come back to this page for more .

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