The Wars of 2024: Where they stand and what we can expect in 2025

 In 2024, the world continued to be gripped by conflict and chaos.

Russia’s war in Ukraine continued to grind on with both sides digging in and refusing to give way.

Israel has devastated large swaths of Gaza in the wake of the October 7, 2023, attack led by Hamas.

Syria’s civil war took a shocking turn with rebels ousting Bashir al-Assad in a lightning offensive.

The brutal civil war in Sudan continued between the army and the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Myanmar’s civil war raged on with the rebels continuing to make inroads against the junta and gobble up territory.

Let’s take a look at the wars of 2024 – where they stand and what happens in 2025.

Ukraine-Russia war

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which kicked on in February 2022, dominated headlines in 2024.

According to BBC, Russia has steadily made gains in Ukraine’s east.

Russia’s troops in November – when the war crossed 1,000 days – took 30 square kilometres of Kyiv’s territory.

However, this Russia’s progress has been painstakingly slow and come at a cost of much blood and treasure.

The UK Ministry of Defence has pegged Russia’s losses at 70,000 soldiers killed and another 500,00 either killed or injured.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has responded by opening a counter-offensive into Russia.

Kyiv has even claimed that its forces have encountered North Korean soldiers in Russia’s Kursk region.

While Moscow and Pyongyang have not confirmed this development, Nato has cited evidence of the same.

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine the all-clear to use its long-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles against Russia.

Though experts insist that Kyiv being given permission to use these missiles is not a game changer, Moscow has responded by lowering its threshold for using nuclear weapons.

The development, what is seen as a likely warning from Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to the West to avoid escalation, came after Russia for months warned that that if Washington allowed Ukraine to fire US, British, and French missiles deep into Russia then Moscow would consider those Nato members to be directly involved in the war in Ukraine.

Russia, for 2025, has set itself lofty goals in Ukraine.

Kyiv Independent quoted Russia’s Defence Minister Andrei Belousov as saying that Moscow wants to completely capture Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia in 2025.

“In 2025, Moscow plans to achieve victory in the war,” he added.

Experts say there is a very good chance that Russia could fulfill at least some of the goals of what it refers to as its ‘special limited operation’ in Ukraine.

The Guardian quoted Ukraine’s ex-foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba as warning that Ukraine “will lose this war” unless something changes.

Samya Kullab, AP correspondent, Ukraine, told the outlet that the situation is far different from when the war began.

“The jubilation and the joy from those initial moments has kind of turned into this incredible feeling of gloom and coming to terms with what we’ve always known — that Ukraine is at a terrible disadvantage. I would describe it as being bled out slowly,” Kullab wrote.

What makes the situation even more difficult for Ukraine is that Donald Trump is set to take office in January and that the Republicans, many of whom are against US continuing to support Kyiv, will gain control of all the levers of federal government in America

Trump – a self-styled deal maker – will likely pressure Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to cut a deal with Putin by threatening to cut off military aid to Ukraine.

Putin has already said that he is willing to reach some compromise with US President-elect Donald Trump and that he would set no preconditions to begin talks with Ukrainian officials.

This is somewhat of a departure from what he said in June.

As per Kyiv Independent, Putin had claimed that Russia would agree to a ceasefire and peace talks only if Ukraine withdrew from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia and disavowed its goal of joining Nato.

Putin also demanded that Ukraine acknowledge Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory.

“As soon as Kyiv declares readiness for such a decision and begins a real withdrawal of troops, as well as officially abandons its NATO ambitions, we will immediately cease fire and begin negotiations,” Putin said at the time.

But Putin has said any deal could only be signed with Ukraine’s legitimate authorities, which for now the Kremlin considered to be only the Ukrainian parliament.

Zelenskyy, whose term was due to expire earlier this year but has been extended due to martial law, would need to be re-elected for Moscow to consider him a legitimate signatory to any deal to ensure it was legally watertight, said Putin.

Putin has dismissed the idea of agreeing a temporary truce with Kyiv, saying only a long-lasting peace deal with Ukraine would suffice.

But Ukraine isn’t without friends.

A piece in The Conversation noted that European foreign ministers in December vowed to keep backing Ukraine.

Ex-Estonian prime minister Kaja Kallas, currently the EU high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, said Ukraine needs “not just to hold on, but to tilt the balance to their favour because Putin will not stop, unless he’s stopped”.

Th EU also continued to sanction individuals and companies in Russia.

However, a piece in The Guardian argued the only way Kyiv will be able to prevail is if the rest of Europe steps up and fills in America’s boots.

The newspaper noted that despite the realisation of what a Russian victory could mean for Europe, it remains to be seen whether politicians and public have the will to fight on.

The Conversation piece too noted that Zelenskyy has few good options.

“The best that Ukraine can hope for is playing for time. Zelensky will need to placate Trump. He’ll need to be open to the idea of negotiations with Russia while avoiding a collapse of the frontlines before a ceasefire can be achieved,” the piece argued.

The piece continued that the only way Europe will be able to deter Putin is if finally starts standing up for itself and its Nato allies.

“So far, they have talked the talk. In 2025, they will need to prove that they can walk the walk,” the piece concluded.

Israel-Gaza conflict

Israel in 2024 continued its merciless bombardment of Gaza.

Israel and Hamas have been at each other’s throats since  gunmen from the Palestinian militant group in the Gaza Strip stormed into southern Israel in October 2023.

Over 1,200 were killed and 253 taken hostage by the terror group.

Israel has responded with a brutal military assault.

Over 45,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to Gaza health authorities.

Nearly the entire population of 2.3 million people in the enclave has been displaced from their homes and much of the territory has been laid to waste.

According to CFR, Israel’s attempts at freeing the rest of the hostages have come to naught.

Efforts to free the more than one hundred remaining Israeli and foreign hostages taken by Hamas have been largely unsuccessful, and their location and health status are unknown.

As per Al Jazeera, such has been the devastation and the damage to civilians that Amnesty International released a report saying that Israel’s actions in Gaza fulfilled the legal definition of a genocide.

Human Rights Watch too has claimed Israel is  committing “acts of genocide” by Palestinians in Gaza clean water.

The rights group has demanded that the international community issue ‘targeted sanctions’ against Israel.

The group in its report claimed that Israeli officials “deliberately obstructed Palestinians’ access to the adequate amount of water required for survival in the Gaza Strip.”

Israel’s foreign ministry accused the rights group of lying, saying Israel had facilitated the continuous flow of water and humanitarian aid into Gaza since the start of the war despite constant attacks by Hamas.

Meanwhile, US and Arab negotiators are working around the clock to hammer out a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas

The mediators, at talks in Egypt and Qatar, are trying to forge a deal to pause the 14-month-old war in the Hamas-ruled enclave.

Mediators had managed to narrow some gaps on previous sticking points but differences remained, the sources said.

Last month, the International Criminal Court (ICC) in November issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his former defence chief for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.

But there’s a good chance the Israel-Gaza war could well end in 2025.

Yet again the shadow of Trump looms large over a conflict.

As per The Times of Israel, Trump in July told Netanyahu he wants the fighting ended before he takes office.

Trump, at the time the Republican nominee, gave Netanyahu the diktat at a meeting at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

The account was confirmed by an Israeli official and a former Trump administration official.

As for what comes after?

Netanyahu has repeatedly said Israel will keep hold of Gaza for the “foreseeable future” after the war ends.

Other Israeli officials have talked about the Israeli Defence Forces setting up a ‘buffer zone’ within the strip as it tries to clamp down on Hamas trying to reform.

The Netanyahu government also seems dead set against allowing the Palestinian Authority to take any role in Gaza’s administration.

A second Israeli official has said this is why the war in Gaza has stretched out.

Well, Josef Federman, AP news director, Israel-Palestinian territories-Jordan, said there are signs that the war is in its final stages.

“But even if it ends, I don’t see how anybody would want to invest into rebuilding Gaza again, given the history where every three or four years there is another war where all your work gets destroyed. So for them to get investment this time on that the scale that’s needed, there are going to have to be some big changes in the way people think.”

Federman said there is no turning the clock back to before the attack.

“That’s where diplomacy comes in — who’s going to run it? It has to be somebody that’s trusted by all of the sides. It has to be somebody that’s confident they can do things differently. And you’re going to have that constant threat of Hamas undermining the work if they’re not part of this anymore.”

Syrian civil war

Syria’s civil war, which began in 2011, took a dramatic turn in late 2024.

Bashar al-Assad, who had been in power in Syria in 2000, fled the country after being ousted by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS).

Assad had succeeded his father Hafez al-Assad as president. Hafez had ruled Syria since 1971.

As per CBS, the war had kicked off after pro-Democracy protests kicked off against Assad – who responded by killing his own people.

Around 500,000 people are thought to have been killed in the civil war.

However, for the past few years, none of the sides had managed to gain an advantage.

The year 2024 began with the status quo.

As per Vox, Sunni militants had established dominion over Syria’s North East, the Kurds backed by America had claimed the North West.

Assad, meanwhile, was in control of the rest of the country including Damascus.

As per Washington Post, violence began in October as insurgents and government forces clashed.

Russia too conducted airstrikes on rebel groups.

The first sign of trouble for Assad began in late November when the Islamist-led rebel alliance began conducting its offensive.

The HTS and its allies quickly took control of Aleppo – a key city in Syria home to two million people – for the first time since the beginning of the war.

This, for Assad, was a catastrophe.

As per Vox, he had spent four years trying to take Aleppo, which before the war began had been Syria’s biggest city, back piecemeal – and had reduced much of it to rubble in doing so.

It had taken the rebels just days to overwhelm government forces.

Syria responded by conducting airstrikes on Aleppo with the help of its ally Russia.

“We of course continue to support Bashar al-Assad and we continue contacts at the appropriate levels, we are analyzing the situation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at the time.

Iran’s foreign ministry too pledged its support for the regime of the dictator.

“Our military advisers were present in Syria, and they are still present. The presence of advisers from the Islamic Republic of Iran in Syria is not a new thing,” Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei was quoted as saying.

Iran’s top diplomat, Abbas Araghchi, even went to Syria to give Assad a message of support.

But some experts were already expressing scepticism about Assad’s chances.

Aron Lund of the Century International think tank told CBS, “Aleppo seems to be lost for the regime.”

“And a government without Aleppo is not really a functional government of Syria.”

They cited the fact that Russia was heavily distracted by the war in Ukraine and that Iran and Hezbollah were left weakened by their conflict against Israel.

Aaron Stein, president of the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute, said, “Russia’s presence has thinned out considerably and quick reaction airstrikes have limited utility.”

Stein at the time called the developments “a reminder of how weak the [Assad] regime is.”

They said the rebels had been biding their time for years.

“This has to do with geopolitics and local opportunity,” Emile Hokayem, senior fellow for Middle East security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies told Washington Post. “The rebellion at large had regrouped, rearmed and retrained for something like this.”

The offensive had the international governments calling for de-escalation.

Many, including the United States, which had declared the HTS as a terror group, were taken aback.

“It goes to show that sometimes there’s a tendency in Washington for people to sit there and say, ‘Oh, well, you know, the conflict is frozen. We don’t worry about it anymore,’” Brian Carter, an analyst who tracks militant groups in the Middle East for the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats project told Vox. “This offensive shows how flawed that sort of thinking is. It’s going to have big impacts for the region and for US policy.”

The rebels, however, were in no mood to relent.

Having tasted the success of taking Aleppo, the rebels pushed on to the strategically-vital city of Hama.

On the way, they went on freeing inmates who had been held in Syria’s jails for years.

As per Washington Post, Daraa then quickly fell to the rebels in short order.

Rebels also took the city of Homs – which effectively split the Assad regime in two.

Then, on December 8, the Islamist faction entered Damascus.

They proclaimed the beginning of a new Syria.

“This is a momentous moment, not just for the Syrian people, but for the people of the Middle East, Lebanese, Palestinians, Syrians or otherwise,” Firas Maksad, a senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Middle East Institute, told CNN.

“This is a regime that, for over 50 years, under the mantra of freedom, unity and socialism, oppressed, tortured and disappeared many millions in Syria.”

Assad, meanwhile, quickly fled to Moscow – where state media confirmed he had been granted asylum.

Around the world, millions of Syrians who had fled the country began declaring their intentions to return.

Meanwhile, the Joe Biden administration in the US, which had been watching the dizzying events, chimed in.

“Our approach has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East,” President Joe Biden said.

He credited action by the US and its allies for weakening Syria’s backers — Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

He called the fall of Assad a “fundamental act of justice” but also a “moment of risk and uncertainty,” and said rebel groups are “saying the right things now” but the U.S. would assess their actions.

Experts say West Asia could see massive changes in 2025.

A US official told CNN that developments in Syria mark the collapse of “Iran’s artifice” across the region.

A piece in CFR noted that West Asia is set to be the focus of attention next year.

“Will post-Assad Syria unify disparate opposition groups? Or will it remain a failed state, only this time, run by Islamists?”

The piece contended that what happens in Syria next will have an impact on its immediate neighbors – Turkey, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.

Danny Citrinowicz is a nonresident fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, told the website said the Assad regime’s demise will likely cause Tehran to reexamine its security strategy in West Asia.

“In a matter of weeks, Iran lost its pillars in the Axis of Resistance. After the heavy blow that Hezbollah suffered at the hands of Israel, the fall of Assad is a fatal strike on Iran’s influence efforts in the Middle East,” Citrinowicz said.

Citrinowicz argued that the fall of the Assad regime has dramatically weakened Iran’s chances of rebuilding Hezbollah and threatening Israel.

“…the collapse of the regime shows how much the tools in Iran’s hands to save Assad without Hezbollah were almost non-existent. This fact also indicates Iran’s weakness and its limited ability to influence what happens in the Middle East without its proxy.”

Citrinowicz said Iran will have to chart a new course without the support of proxies.

Sudanese civil war

Sudan’s civil war entered its second year in 2024.

As per CFR, the war erupted in Sudan’s capital Khartoum between Sudanese Armed Forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the paramilitary group RSF spearheaded by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo in April 2023.

The war, which has lasted 20 months, came ahead of a planned transition to civilian rule.

The RSF now controls swathes of central and western Sudan including most of the capital Khartoum and the Darfur region, its traditional base.

According to CFR.org, almost 15,000 people have been killed, and more than 8.2 million have been displaced – the largest such crisis in the world.

However, researchers say the toll is likely far higher. Even in peace time, many deaths are not registered in Sudan, they contend.

As fighting intensified, people have been cut off from places that record deaths, including hospitals, morgues and cemeteries.

Repeated disruptions to internet services and telecommunications has left millions unable to contact the outside world.

As per Bloomberg, Russia and Iran have provided Sudanese Armed Forces with and drones, while the UAE has emerged as a key backer of the RSF.

China, meanwhile, has provided weapons to both sides.

“We are very grateful to our friends and appreciate the help we have received,” Malik Agar, the deputy to al-Burhan, was quoted as saying. “We know who our friends are and who has chosen not to back us.”

“The most important ambassadors today in Port Sudan are the Russian, the Turkish, the Egyptian and the Iranian,” said Magdi el-Gizouli, a Sudanese academic and a fellow of the Rift Valley Institute, told _Bloomber_g. “Nobody in Sudan can fight without external support — it’s just not possible. You don’t make enough weapons in Sudan. You don’t make enough ammunition. You don’t generate fuel.”

Meanwhile, a humanitarian crisis has unfolded on the ground.

The UN says nearly 25 million people, half of Sudan’s population, need aid as famine has taken hold in displacement camps and 11 million people have fled their homes.

It warns that the “world’s largest hunger crisis” could be at hand.

UN refugee agency UNCHR has confirmed a famine in Darfur.

“It’s an invisible crisis,” UN’s humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told the BBC in November. “Twenty-five million Sudanese, more than half the country, need help now.”

Nearly three million people have left for other countries.

This includes two million who have sought refuge in Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan.

According to UNCHR, 1.2 million have fled to Egypt, 712,288 to Chad, 192,280 to South Sudan, 180,000 to Libya, 60,808 to Uganda and 39,984 to Ethiopia.

The US and rights groups have said both sides have committed atrocities, and accused the RSF of carrying out ethnic cleansing in Darfur.

According to the BBC, both sides have been alleged to be using starvation as a weapon of war.

Sexual violence, the UN says, is ‘an epidemic’ in the country.

Both sides have dismissed all the charges.

The civil war may see fresh hostilities in 2025.

Russia in November vetoed a United Nations Security Council draft resolution that called on Sudan’s warring parties to cease hostilities immediately and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid.

The move was hailed by the army-aligned Sudanese foreign ministry.

All other countries of the 15-member council, including China, voted in favor of the measure drafted by Britain and Sierra Leone.

The SAF and RSF may be preparing for a do-or-die battle.

Bloomberg quoted a United Nations security assessment as saying that that both sides “are actively replenishing their weapon supplies, including drones, to strengthen their positions.”

This comes even as the RSF has said it will work with a planned new government to oversee territories they control.

But that brings with it its own set of problems.

Any new administration ruling that area would be a challenge to the internationally recognised and army-led national government which was forced out of Khartoum last year and now operates on the Red Sea coast in Port Sudan.

A group of civilian politicians and armed group leaders have agreed to set up what they describe as a “peace government”, members of the group told Reuters this week.

They said it would be civilian-led, independent of the RSF and set up to replace the government in Port Sudan which they accused of prolonging the war.

Western diplomats told Reuters they were aware of discussions about a new administration, and said that any institution that emerged would be controlled by the RSF.

“I see no one rushing to recognise them,” one Western diplomat said.

“The biggest weakness of the RSF is no functioning chain of command. All the atrocities we see, how do we see that in a government?”

Regardless of who comes out on top, outsiders will be looking to take advantage.

“Sudan seems to be an easy win that you can get on the cheap,” el-Gizouli told Bloomberg. “You can get the Red Sea coast, you can get political influence in Khartoum, you can get mineral resources at a very cheap price. You can make a hell of a profit out of a country like Sudan.”

Myanmar civil war

Myanmar has been in chaos since 2021 after the junta toppled the democratically-elected regime of Aung San Suu Kyi.

Anger against the junta in the aftermath of the coup has given rise to a nationwide armed resistance movement.

Fighting has only grown more intense over the past year.

According to DW, the uprising is fiercest in regions dominated by ethnic minorities.

In these areas, ethnics groups and civilian-led defence forces have stitched together alliances to challenge the military across vast swathes of the country.

While rebels have made inroads across the war-torn Southeast Asian nation, this is particularly true for areas near the China border.

According to BBC, the army has suffered humiliation upon humiliation this past year.

Rebels in December took control of the country’s western border with Bangladesh after insurgents of the Arakan Army (AA) drove out the junta’s Border Guard Police (PGP5) in northern Rakhine State.

The entire 270 kilometre with Bangladesh is now governed by the rebels.

The BBC noted that in Rakhine State only the capital Sittwe remains in military hands – which is isolated from the rest of the nation.

The army has suffered defeat after defeat at the hands of the Arakan Army.

The AA will likely be the first insurgent group to take complete control of a state in Myanmar, as per BBC.

Amid the fighting, there has been much devastation and human suffering.

The Conversation quoted UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk as saying that the military has killed more than 5,000 civilians since 2021.

Over three million people have been displaced across the country.

Around 18 million people – a third of the populace – do not have food, housing access to electricity and heating.

Among those that have suffered most are the Rohingya population of Myanmar.

“We cannot deny the fact that Rohingyas have been persecuted by Myanmar governments for many years, and the Rakhine people supported that,” a Rohingya man told BBC.

“The government wants to keep Rohingyas from becoming citizens, but the Rakhine people believe there should be no Rohingyas at all in Rakhine State. Our situation today is even more difficult than it was under the rule of the military junta.”

As per The Conversation, nearly 750,000 people have fled to Bangladesh.

China has been pushing for a ceasefire in Myanmar.

Two out of three members of the Brotherhood Alliance have agreed to it.

While the insurgents have demanded that the military be cut off from politics, they may ultimately seek to hold onto their gains rather than push for a complete reform.

Myanmar’s neighbours are worried.

Thailand in December hosted talks to resolve the political crisis.

The meeting was attended by foreign ministers and high-level representatives from Myanmar as well as  Laos, China, India, Bangladesh and host Thailand.

But experts say this approach is unlikely to bear fruit.

David Scott Mathieson, an independent analyst working on conflict and human rights issues on Myanmar, told DW, “Unless the Myanmar military is serious about peace, these talks will be extremely limited. You can’t approach any diplomacy on Myanmar without a clear understanding that the military is the root cause of all the problems,” Mathieson said.

He added not to give any credence to the junta’s vow to hold polls.

“No one should be taking these claims seriously. This is a trap of diplomacy. If any interlocutor takes election preparations seriously, they have doomed the country to prolonged conflict,” he underlined.

Kyi, the 78-year-old Nobel laureate, meanwhile, is now under house arrest.

She faces 27 years in prison for crimes ranging from treason and bribery to violations of the telecommunications law.

She denied all charges  against her.

Kyi was previously held under house arrest for a total of 15 years under a previous junta. Her son fears she will be used as a ‘bargaining chip’ or a human shield.

In November, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC), Karim Khan, requested an arrest warrant for junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.

It remains to be seen if the junta can hold on in 2025 – or even mount an unlikely comeback.

With inputs from agencies