Why will Thanksgiving meals be cheaper for Americans this year? Is it enough?

This year’s Thanksgiving dinner is set to be a lighter financial burden for many American households, with prices for traditional holiday staples continuing to drop for the second consecutive year.

Despite this relief, costs remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, and economic pressures still loom large.

Why Thanksgiving meals will be cheaper this year

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s (AFBF) 39th annual Thanksgiving dinner survey, the average cost of a classic Thanksgiving meal for 10 people is $58.08 in 2024.

This marks a 5 per cent decrease from 2023’s average of $61.17 and a 9 per cent drop from the record $64.05 in 2022. While these figures signal an improvement, the cost remains 19 per cent higher than in 2019.

The centerpiece of the meal, the turkey, has been a key contributor to the declining costs. A 16-pound turkey now averages $27, down about 6 per cent from 2023. In total, turkeys account for 44 per cent of the meal’s overall cost.

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This price drop comes despite turkey supplies shrinking by 6 per cent in 2024, reaching their lowest levels since 1985 due to ongoing impacts of bird flu . However, demand has also cooled, with per capita turkey consumption falling by about a pound this year.

Zippy Duvall, President of the AFBF, remarked, “We are seeing modest improvements in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner for a second year, but America’s families, including farm families, are still being hurt by high inflation.”

What costs more, what costs less this Thanksgiving

The AFBF survey included the price of Thanksgiving staples such as turkey, cubed stuffing, sweet potatoes, dinner rolls, frozen peas, fresh cranberries, pumpkin pie mix, whipped cream, and whole milk. Here’s how the numbers stack up:

Falling costs:

• Sweet potatoes dropped by 26.2 per cent.

• Frozen peas fell 8 per cent.

• Whole milk, a key pie ingredient, is down 14 per cent, thanks to favourable weather boosting dairy production.

Rising costs:

• Processed foods like dinner rolls and cubed stuffing saw price hikes of over 8 per cent, largely due to rising labour costs, which increased nearly 4 per cent in the past year according to the US Bureau of Labour Statistics.

• A 30-ounce can of pumpkin pie mix costs $5.56, up 6 per cent from last year and nearly 70 per cent higher than five years ago.

For those opting to expand their holiday menu, the cost of a more inclusive meal — adding ham, russet potatoes, and frozen green beans — averages $77.34, an 8 per cent decrease from 2023.

What kind of savings have retail grocers promised

Major retailers have launched aggressive promotions to attract budget-conscious consumers:

• Walmart offers a 29-item Thanksgiving bundle for under $55, including a frozen turkey and sides, serving eight people for less than $7 per person.

• Target has a similar deal for four people at $20, $5 less than in 2023.

• Aldi is providing a meal for $47, below 2019 prices, featuring items like sweet potato casserole ingredients and a Butterball turkey.

• Meijer introduced a $37 meal for four to six people and frozen turkeys for as low as 49 cents per pound.

Walmart, which began its promotions two weeks earlier than last year, claimed its selected items are 3.5 per cent cheaper compared to 2023, reported Fortune.

Is it enough?

The easing of food inflation has provided some relief after years of skyrocketing grocery prices.

According to the USDA, food prices increased by 23 per cent between 2020 and 2023 due to factors like pandemic-driven disruptions, supply chain issues, and geopolitical tensions such as the war in Ukraine . Bird flu outbreaks alone led to the culling of 14 million turkeys since 2022.

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While food price growth slowed in 2023, experts caution that this year’s declines don’t erase the sharp increases of previous years. “Declines don’t really erase the dramatic increases we had,” CNBC quoted Bernt Nelson, an economist with the Farm Bureau.

How consumers can save even more

Shoppers looking to stretch their budgets can benefit from strategic choices between store and name-brand items. According to Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, opting entirely for store-brand items could save up to $17 for a meal serving 10 people.

However, some name-brand items, like canned cranberries, are cheaper than their store-brand counterparts this year, reported CNBC.

“When shopping this year, it really comes back to doing a little bit of research,” said Robin Wenzel of Wells Fargo.

Despite the mixed economic landscape, many Americans are finding ways to maintain the spirit of Thanksgiving. Indiana turkey farmer Greg Gunthorp observed that consumers are adding variety to their menus with brisket and ham. “We’ve had those outlier years when there just aren’t enough turkeys to go around. This is definitely not one of those years,” Gunthorp told Reuters.

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With inputs from agencies