Thailand's most controversial dynasty is back at the helm. Can Paetongtarn Shinawatra tread her own path?

Thai politics has witnessed yet another twist.

The country’s most famous and controversial political dynasty returned to power today with Paetongtarn Shinawatra being sworn in as prime minister.

Paetongtarn’s ascendance comes nearly two decades after her father Thaksin was ousted by the military.

But can Paetongtarn avoid her father’s fate?

Remember, her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra too was removed by a military coup.

Paetongtarn took the oath of office today(September 6) along with her cabinet of ministers.

But many question the influence Thaksin will have on the new government.

Let’s take a closer look:

History of the Shinawatras

Thaksin established the Shinawatra political dynasty after winning back-to-back elections in 2001 and 2005 after making a massive fortune in the telecom industry.

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His “Thaksinomics” policies of debt relief and social welfare programmes earned him huge and lasting support from rural and working-class voters previously ignored by Thai politicians.

But his success infuriated the traditional elite of generals, senior bureaucrats, courtiers and business leaders who saw Thaksin as corrupt and his policies as a threat to the long-established social order. The army ousted Thaksin in a coup in 2006, and he fled Thailand for 15 years as mass street protests, elections and judicial interventions roiled the kingdom.

Thaksin’s parties kept winning elections, coming first in everyone until last year, only to be thrown out by court orders or coups. His sister Yingluck became prime minister after the 2011 election until she too was toppled by the generals in 2014.

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Reason for their popularity among the masses

For millions of poorer Thais, Thaksin’s government brought economic security and social mobility, Napon Jatusripitak of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute told AFP. The establishment’s attempts to suppress Thaksin and his allies served only to burnish his reputation among supporters, he added.

“Paradoxically this legacy has endured not because Thaksin continued to perform economic miracles, but because of the widespread impression that he had been blocked from doing so by forces threatened by his rise to power,” Napon said.

Paetongtarn carried the family brand to a new generation in last year’s election and, with her youth and taste for designer clothes, brought a dash of glamour to a political scene long dominated by elderly men in suits and uniforms. More prosaically, the Shinawatra family’s vast wealth has enabled it to maintain extensive patronage networks – a vital tool in Thailand’s shady political scene.

Challenges Paetongtarn may face

The economic picture is grim. Thailand has struggled to bounce back from the Covid-19 pandemic and the government has made little progress on its flagship “digital wallet” cash handout policy.

“There’s no honeymoon period for Paetongtarn and it will be a very, very tough job,” analyst Virot Ali of Thammasat University told AFP.

The tricky climate could endanger the long-enduring Shinawatra reputation. Thaksin has “never really been given the chance to fail in delivering on his promises – until now, that is”, Napon said.

Establishments likely to threaten Paetongtarn 

A bigger threat to Paetongtarn will likely come from the conservative elite that sank her father and aunt’s rule. Evidence of the establishment’s clout came last month when her predecessor as PM, Srettha Thavisin, was thrown out of office by the Constitutional Court following a petition by ex-senators appointed by the last junta.

Khemthong Tonsakulrungruang, an analyst from Chulalongkorn University, said that while a full-blown coup was “very unlikely”, trouble could come from judicial or anti-corruption bodies with close ties to the military old guard.

They will watch closely for Thaksin wielding undue influence over his daughter’s government. “If he makes a mistake, if the government makes a mistake, it is very possible that the court is going to aggressively review that mistake and might axe the government,” Khemthong told AFP.

The next step

The emergence of the progressive Move Forward Party (MFP) at last year’s election, where it won most seats, posed a threat to both the Shinawatras’ Pheu Thai party and the conservative establishment. Pheu Thai buried the hatchet with conservative pro-military parties to form a coalition to shut MFP out of government.

MFP was dissolved by court order last month but immediately reformed as the People’s Party, with the same pledges to reduce military influence, break up business monopolies and reform lese-majeste laws. “Right now the establishment’s biggest concern is the emergence of Move Forward – now the People’s Party,” Khemthong said.

“I think this is an existential threat.” For now at least, it seems to serve the establishment’s interests to keep Paetongtarn in power. But in the long run the deal with the pro-military parties could come to haunt the Shinawatras as it is seen by many liberal voters as a betrayal, Khemthong said.

With inputs from AFP