Texas floods: Did inadequate warnings and staffing cuts contribute to a high death toll?

Central Texas witnessed one of its deadliest natural disasters in recent history over the Fourth of July holiday, when relentless overnight rainfall triggered catastrophic flash flooding across Kerr County and surrounding areas.

The sudden surge of water in the Guadalupe River corridor has claimed at least 104 lives, with dozens more reported missing — including multiple children from summer camps in the area.

Among the missing are ten girls and a camp counsellor from Camp Mystic, a well-known Christian summer camp situated near the riverbanks.

According to Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha, 84 bodies have been recovered in Kerr County, including 28 children. The number of those still unaccounted for continues to fluctuate as search teams and emergency personnel comb the flood zone.

Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice stated on Monday that the total number of missing persons remains unclear, adding only that “it is a lot.”

The floods struck during the early hours of Friday morning, when most residents were asleep. Eyewitness accounts and survivor testimonies suggest the water rose with terrifying speed, catching communities completely off guard.

How the flood happened

The affected region — Texas Hill Country — is geologically vulnerable to flash floods due to its arid, clay-like soil that resists absorption. This, combined with the area’s rolling topography, channels rainfall quickly into streams and rivers, dramatically increasing flood risks.

Rain began to fall heavily late Thursday night and early Friday morning. According to weather reports, over 12 inches (30 cm) of rain fell during this time, with some areas receiving up to 15 inches.

A crucial period between 5:00 am and 6:30 am saw the Guadalupe River swell by over 26 feet (8 meters) — a rate that overwhelmed not just infrastructure but also evacuation timelines.

The National Weather Service (NWS) had issued a flood watch by 1:18 pm on Thursday, followed by a series of technical warnings later in the day.

One such alert warned that “rapid runoff is expected, with locally considerable flash and urban flash flooding possible… the nocturnal timing will also enhance the hazard potential and impacts.”

Still, those alerts appeared to have had limited impact on ground-level decision-making or public awareness.

Some survivors reported receiving no warnings before the flood struck. The speed and severity of the flooding were described by locals as a “pitch black wall of death.”

Emergency alert failures

Though warnings were issued by the NWS, they were not supplemented by local emergency alerts.

Kerr County authorities did not initiate messages via the Integrated Public Alert and Warning System (IPAWS), a federal system that sends emergency text alerts directly to cellphones. The only alerts that reached mobile users were those disseminated directly by the NWS.

According to CBS News, there were no county-initiated IPAWS alerts during the disaster, and this apparent lapse is under renewed scrutiny.

Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly admitted on Saturday that “the area does not have a warning system.” Although such systems had been discussed by local commissioners in previous years, financial constraints prevented implementation.

Former commissioner Tom Moser confirmed that a federal grant had been sought for a siren system but was not approved. Moser also said there had been public concern that such a system might be prone to false alarms.

Nevertheless, he remarked that the recent tragedy might finally push officials to act: “It’s a shame it took a disaster for it to happen.”

State leadership is now indicating possible intervention . Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick stated, “If they can’t afford to do it, then let us do it,” noting that the upcoming special legislative session may address funding for sirens and similar alert infrastructure.

Meanwhile, Dalton Rice, Kerrville’s city manager, said on Monday that he was unaware of any communication between law enforcement and summer camps during the critical window of 1 am to 4 am Friday.

He also highlighted that patchy cell service and possible tower outages during the storm may have disrupted emergency communications.

Weather forecasts and staffing cuts

In the aftermath of the floods, attention has also turned to whether federal staffing shortfalls and budget cuts may have undermined weather forecasting and emergency communication.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — which oversees the National Weather Service — has undergone staff reductions and lab closures under the Trump administration’s fiscal plans.

Critics, including meteorologists, have raised alarms about the decline in weather balloon deployments — a critical source of upper-atmosphere data.

Reports indicate that 20 per cent fewer weather balloons are being released due to budget constraints, potentially compromising forecasting models.

Additionally, as of the flood event, the San Antonio and San Angelo NWS offices, which serve the affected area, were operating with 10 vacancies out of their full staffing complement of 33.

Notably, the San Antonio office lacked a Warning Coordination Meteorologist, a vital liaison position for communication between forecasters and local officials.

Still, some experts have defended the performance of NWS staff. Jason Runyen, a meteorologist in the NWS office responsible for central Texas, told media that they had five staffers on duty, exceeding the typical overnight count.

Tom Fahy, the legislative director of the NWS Employees Organization, asserted that field offices had “adequate staffing and resources” and issued warnings in a timely manner.

Missed warnings and delayed responses

The first flash flood warning for areas including Camp Mystic was issued by the NWS at 1:14 am Friday, and was marked to trigger emergency alerts on cellphones.

Subsequent warnings at 4:03 am and 5:34 am escalated the threat, culminating in alerts that read: “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”

Despite these messages, many residents say they never received any alerts or were unaware of the danger until it was too late.

According to CBS News, public alert fatigue and the absence of a county-level response likely contributed to this communication breakdown. Furthermore, while NWS used IPAWS to push notifications, these were only effective if users had not disabled alerts and if their phones had reliable network service.

By the time the river burst its banks — estimated around 5 am — entire communities had only minutes to react. Homes were uprooted, campsites erased and entire sections of land submerged as the floodwaters surged downstream.

What comes next

In the wake of the disaster, over 1,000 volunteers have mobilised in Kerr County to assist in the search and recovery operation. Emergency responders are working with national teams to locate missing individuals and identify the deceased.

Officials have pointed out that rescue efforts will continue before any formal review begins. “We want to finish the search and rescue and then review possible issues with cell towers, radios and emergency alerts,” said Rice.

US Judge Rob Kelly, after surveying the devastation from a helicopter, summarised the scope of the disaster: “It’s going to be a long time before we’re ever able to clean it up, much less rebuild it.”

Some local businesses and residents fear that, like in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, the destruction may drive people to relocate permanently.

US President Donald Trump has announced plans to visit the affected areas this Friday.

With inputs from agencies