A surprise attack by Syrian rebel forces on Aleppo, one of Syria’s largest cities and once-thriving commercial hub, has brought the 13-year civil war back into the spotlight.
It is one of the rebels’ strongest in years of conflict , whose destabilising consequences have spread well beyond the nation’s boundaries.
As US-backed Israel fights Iranian-allied Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the escalation in conflicts has increased the likelihood of another deadly front reopening in West Asia.
Here’s a look at some of the key aspects of the new fighting:
The surprise rebel offensive in Syria’s Aleppo
The opposition fighters launched their incursion on Wednesday, the same day that Israel and Hezbollah, a terrorist group supported by Iran, signed a fragile ceasefire in neighbouring Lebanon.
By Friday, they had wrested control of a dozen towns and villages in the northern province of Aleppo, which was controlled by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s government, backed by both Iran and Russia.
Then they entered the western districts of Aleppo, a city of some two million people before the war.
David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, said: “We’re deeply alarmed by the situation unfolding in northwest Syria.” “Relentless attacks over the past three days have claimed the lives of at least 27 civilians, including children as young as eight years old,” he told Reuters.
Syrian state news agency SANA said four civilians including two students were killed on Friday in Aleppo by insurgent shelling of university student dormitories. It was not clear if they were among the 27 dead reported by the UN official.
According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the toll in the ongoing battle rose to 182, which includes 102 fighters from the HTS and 19 from the allied forces.
Assad and his allies Russia, Iran and regional Shi’ite militias had retaken all of Aleppo city in late 2016, with insurgents agreeing to withdraw after months of bombardment and siege in a battle that turned the tide against the opposition.
Mustafa Abdul Jaber, a commander in the Jaish al-Izza rebel brigade, said, according to The Associated Press, their speedy advance this week had been helped by a lack of Iran-backed manpower in the broader Aleppo province. Iran’s allies in the region have suffered a series of blows at the hands of Israel as the Gaza war has expanded through West Asia.
The group leading the offensive
The primary force leading the charge is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS.
The US and UN have long designated the opposition force as a terrorist organisation.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani emerged as the leader of al-Qaida’s Syria branch in 2011, in the first months of Syria’s war.
For many in Syria’s opposition, who wanted to preserve the fight against Assad’s cruel regime free from violent extremism, it was an unwanted intervention.
Golani and the group took properties from religious minorities, sent religious police to enforce women’s modest attire, claimed responsibility for deadly explosions, and vowed to fight Western forces.
They have sought to remake themselves in recent years, focusing on promoting civilian government in their territory as well as military action, researcher Aaron Zelin noted.
His group broke ties with al-Qaida in 2016.
Golani now presents himself as the protector of various religions while cracking down on some extremist groups in his jurisdiction. This included permitting the city of Idlib to host its first Christian Mass in years last year.
By 2018, the Trump administration acknowledged it was no longer directly targeting Golani, Zelin said.
But HTS has allowed some wanted armed groups to continue to operate on its territory and shot at US special forces at least as recently as 2022, he said.
The reason behind the attack
The opposition fighters claim that the offensive was launched to prevent any attacks by the Syrian army and in reaction to increased strikes on civilians by the Syrian and Russian air forces in recent weeks on regions in rebel-held Idlib.
Lt. Col. Hassan Abdulghany, the rebel military leader, described the operation as a defensive necessity in a video statement launching the operation.
“To push back their fire from our people, this operation is not a choice. It is an obligation to defend our people and their land. It has become clear to everyone that the regime militias and their allies, including the Iranian mercenaries, have declared an open war on the Syrian people,” he said, according to the New York Times.
Reclaiming land, stopping airstrikes on civilian areas, and shutting off vital supply routes for government forces are among the rebels’ immediate objectives.
Assad regime’s response
The Syrian military said it continued to confront the attack, saying in a statement it had inflicted heavy losses on the insurgents in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib.
Russian and Syrian warplanes bombed the area near the border with Turkey on Thursday to try to push back an insurgent offensive that has captured territory for the first time in years, Syrian army and rebel sources said, according to Reuters.
Iran, one of Assad’s key allies, suffered losses as well in the operation. A senior commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards is among those killed, according to NDTV.
The Assad family has long depended on its partnership with Iran to maintain its hold on power. Since 2011, when President Assad initially encountered an anti-government rebellion, this alliance has been particularly advantageous.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Moscow regarded the rebel attack as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and wanted the authorities to act fast to regain control.
“As for the situation around Aleppo, it is an attack on Syrian sovereignty and we are in favour of the Syrian authorities bringing order to the area and restoring constitutional order as soon as possible,” said Peskov.
The fighting matters. Here’s why
An estimated half a million people have died in the 13-year battle between Assad and opposition factions vying for his downfall.
About 6.8 million Syrians have left the nation, a refugee crisis that fuelled far-right anti-immigrant movements and contributed to a shift in Europe’s political landscape.
A variety of opposition forces and foreign troops govern the approximately 30 per cent of the country that is not Assad’s.
About 900 American soldiers are stationed in northeast Syria, distant from Aleppo, to prevent an Islamic State resurgence.
Israel and the United States occasionally strike government forces and militias with ties to Iran in Syria.
In addition to having troops in Syria, Turkey also influences the large coalition of rebel fighters that are occupying Aleppo.
Coming after years with few sizeable changes in territory between Syria’s warring parties, the fighting “has the potential to be really quite, quite consequential and potentially game-changing” if Syrian government forces prove unable to hold their ground, said Charles Lister, a long-time Syria analyst with the US-based Middle East Institute.
Risks include if Islamic State fighters see it as an opening, Lister said.
Robert Ford, the last-serving US ambassador to Syria, said the fighting in Aleppo would become more broadly destabilising if it drew Russia and Turkey — each with its own interests to protect in Syria — into direct heavy fighting against each other.
The history of Aleppo in the war
Aleppo has been a hub of West Asian trade and culture for thousands of years, situated at the intersection of empires and trade routes.
Before the war, about 2.3 million people were living in Aleppo.
When rebels took control of the city’s eastern half in 2012, it became the most prominent example of the armed opposition forces’ progress.
The city was besieged in 2016 by government forces supported by Russian airstrikes.
Neighbourhoods were systematically levelled by Russian shells, missiles, and crude barrel bombs, which are containers filled with metal and explosives, such as fuel canisters.
That year, rebels who were starving and under siege surrendered Aleppo.
The battle changed course when the Russian military entered, enabling Assad to maintain his hold on the region.
According to an independent monitoring group, Israeli airstrikes in Aleppo this year hit the Syrian army and Hezbollah weapons storage, among other targets. Strikes against Aleppo and other government-held regions of Syria are rarely acknowledged by Israel.
With inputs from The Associated Press and Reuters