 "Supporters of Samagi Jana Balawegaya party leader and presidential candidate Sajith Premadasa, wave posters with his portrait during an election rally in Kadawatha on September 17, 2024. AFP")
Sri Lanka is holding its first presidential elections since the 2022 mass protests over the economic crisis that led to the fall of the Rajapaksa clan. All eyes are on how people in the Indian Ocean island will vote on Saturday (September 21).
India, Sri Lanka’s neighbour, is among those keenly watching the presidential election. The results of these polls could change New Delhi’s relations with Colombo.
Here’s why Sri Lanka’s presidential election matters to India.
Sri Lanka’s strategic location
Sri Lanka’s proximity to India and its strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region makes the September 21 elections important for New Delhi.
The island nation has a significant number of Tamils – who make up 11 per cent of its population – in the Northern and Eastern provinces. As The Diplomat noted, not only do Tamils in India and Sri Lanka share linguistic and cultural similarities but also kinship bonds.
The condition of Tamils in Sri Lanka has long affected India. The island nation has failed to implement the 13th Amendment to Sri Lanka’s constitution signed as part of the India-Sri Lanka Accord in 1987. Under this pact, some powers would be transferred to the local governments of Sri Lanka’s nine provinces.
Last July, Sri Lanka President Ranil Wickremesinghe visited New Delhi, during which Prime Minister Narendra Modi stressed the need to “ensure a life of dignity” for the Tamil community in the island nation. He also told Wickremesinghe that he hoped the Sri Lankan president would implement the 13th Amendment.
As the new president comes to power, India is also likely to push for provincial council elections in Sri Lanka, which would give greater autonomy to Lankan Tamils.
Sri Lanka’s location near southern India, where India’s key installations such as nuclear power plants, space research centres, and naval bases lie, also matters.
Decreasing allies
The changing realities of India’s neighbourhood also explain India’s interest in Sri Lanka’s election. Since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in Bangladesh, ties between New Delhi and Dhaka have turned frosty.
The rising anti-India sentiments in the Maldives are not good news. New Delhi and Malé have been trying to repair ties after President Mohamed Muizzu , who is seen as a pro-China leader, asked India to withdraw its troops from the island nation.
India’s relations with China have not been “normal” since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. Myanmar is grappling with civil war, with rebels controlling half the country. Afghanistan is under Taliban rule since 2021. India’s ties remain sour with Pakistan.
Now, an unfavourable change in guard in Sri Lanka is the last thing India wants. Amid surprise political changes in South Asia, including the reduced majority of the BJP-led NDA government and Hasina’s fall in Dhaka, “India is obviously going to look at this election with very, very sharp eyes,” Uditha Devapriya, chief analyst at Factum, a Sri Lanka-based foreign policy think tank, told South China Morning Post (SCMP).
India will hope for a friendly government in Sri Lanka to continue the “strong relationship” that PM Modi enjoys with Wickremesinghe’s administration.
President Wickremesinghe, who is fighting the elections as an independent candidate, is considered friendly to New Delhi. However, he also keeps Beijing close. It was Wickremesinghe, the Lankan prime minister in 2017, who gave the nod to handing over the strategic southern port of Hambantota to China on a 99-year lease.
Nilanthi Samaranayake, a visiting expert at the US Institute of Peace, told SCMP that India would seek to protect its positive relationship with Sri Lanka, especially after the “challenges” posed by Hasina’s toppling in Bangladesh.
The China factor
China’s growing influence in the region is a cause of worry for India. According to The Diplomat, New Delhi has stakes in the Sri Lankan presidential elections due to its “desire to counter Chinese influence” in the island nation.
Analysts predict Sri Lanka’s future ties with New Delhi and Beijing will depend on the winning candidate’s policies.
Besides the incumbent president Wickremesinghe, the opposition leader Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) and Anura Kumara Dissanayake of the National People’s Power (NPP) coalition are the other prime contenders. Namal Rajapaksa, the 38-year-old scion of the Rajapaksa clan, is also in the race but is mostly viewed as a symbolic candidate seeking to revive his family’s legacy.
Premadasa is more inclined towards India and his SJB is suspicious of China, while Dissanayake is seen close to Beijing. Premadasa vies to develop strong relations with all major powers, including India, the US and China, making Sri Lanka a “non-aligned” nation, as per Times of India.
Sri Lanka has tried to maintain friendly ties with both India and China. However, analysts believe this geopolitical balancing act could be in jeopardy if NPP’s Dissanayake comes to power.
Harindra B Dassanayake, an analyst at Muragala Centre for Progressive Politics and Policy in Sri Lanka, told SCMP that the NPP’s rise has Delhi “on edge”. “India will be compelled to be cautious with a potential NPP leadership, while China will see it as an opportunity to increase their presence in the region,” he said.
India has tried to engage with Dissanayake, the head of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP). In February, External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar and National Security Adviser (NSA) Ajit Doval met a Dissanayake-led delegation in India.
For its part, Beijing would engage with any candidate who wins the presidential election. Speaking to SCMP, Samaranayake said China has made inroads in Sri Lanka and would not let a leadership change upset its “strategic foothold”.
Whoever wins in the island nation, India cannot lose another strategic partner in its neighbourhood.
With inputs from agencies