Has share of Hindu population in India declined, Muslims increased? A look at the PM-EAC report and the controversy

Hindus vs Muslims… It is a sensitive subject in India. Now a new analysis by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (PM-EAC) has led to a slugfest between political parties.

According to the research, the share of the Hindu population has dipped and that of the minority – Muslims, Christians, and Sikhs – have seen a rise between 1950 and 2015.
We take a look at the PM-EAC report and why politicians are sparring over it.

What does the PM-EAC report say?

According to the working paper of EAC-PM , which was released on Tuesday, the share of the Hindu population in India decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015. In the corresponding period, the share of the Muslim population saw a 43.15 per cent increase.

The share of other religious minorities, barring Parsis and Jains, saw a rise in population up to 6.58 per cent in these 65 years.

According to the report, the share of the majority Hindu population in India decreased by 7.82 per cent between 1950 and 2015 (from 84.68 per cent to 78.06 per cent). The share of the Muslim population in 1950 was 9.84 per cent and increased to 14.09 per cent in 2015 – a 43.15 per cent increase.

The share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 per cent to 2.36 per cent – an increase of 5.38 per cent between 1950 and 2015. The share of the Sikh population increased from 1.24 per cent in 1950 to 1.85 per cent in 2015, a 6.58 per cent rise. The share of the Buddhist population also witnessed an increase from 0.05 per cent to 0.18 per cent over the said period.

There was a decline in the share of the Parsi and Jain population. The Parsis witnessed a stark 85 per cent decline, reducing from 0.03 per cent share in 1950 to 0.004 per cent in 2015. The Jain population saw a drop from 0.45 per cent to 0.36 per cent.

Titled ‘Share of Religious Minorities: A cross country analysis’, the report researched data on the religious composition of populations in 167 countries. A dip in the majority population is a global trend also seen in Europe. However, India stood out compared to countries in the neighbourhood.

In SAARC countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and the Maldives) and Myanmar, the share of the majority religious denomination has decreased in four countries and increased in five, the PM-EAC report says.

Among these, all Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination. However, the Maldives was an exception, where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Muslims) declined by 1.47 per cent, according to a report. Among the five non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination while Sri Lanka and Bhutan saw their share increase.

The analysis relied on the “Religious Characteristics of States Dataset 2017” to study religious composition across countries with a focus only on nations where a majority religion accounted for more than 50 per cent share of the total population in 1950.

The study said it was “agnostic to the underlying causes of such demographic change” and focused on the share of the minority population as a “cumulative measure of their well-being”. It concluded that “minorities are not just protected but thriving in India”.

Why are BJP and its rivals sparring over the report?

The report has invited some sharp reactions with Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders linking the decline in the share of the Hindu population and the rising Muslim share to the Congress’ appeasement of minorities.

Amit Malviya, the party’s in-charge of the National Information and Technology Department targeted the Congress over the analysis, saying that if the country is left to Congress, then there would be no country for Hindus.

“Share of Hindus shrunk 7.8% between 1950 and 2015. The Muslim population grew by 43%. This is what decades of Congress rule did to us. Left to them, there would be no country for Hindus,” he wrote on X.

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BJP MP Sudhanshu Trivedi slammed the Grand Old Party on the subject of reservation. “If by this pace the population is increasing and Congress is hell bent on giving reservation to Muslims on the basis of population, then the share will be cut from whom? From the SC/ST and the OBC in the future”

“The possibility of increase in Muslim population is higher because of multiple marriages, conversion, infiltration. They (Muslims) are having secular cover. This needs to be answered,” he was quoted as saying by the news agency PTI.

Union minister Rajeev Chandrasekhar claimed that one particular community is “increasing its population in a manner where demography of India is being altered, changed” and it “leads to some questions” like “how much of growth in the Muslim community is being caused by illegal immigration and conversion”, reports Deccan Herald.

Keshav Prasad Maurya, Uttar Pradesh’s deputy chief minister, also pointed fingers at the Congress, claiming that the Muslim population was increasing due to the party’s appeasement politics. “This is a topic of concern and this imbalance in the population–rise in Muslim population and decline in Hindu population, has happened because of the Congress’ Muslim appeasement.”

However, BJP rivals have criticised the report. All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen leader Asaduddin Owaisi on Thursday called it a “report from Whatsapp University”.

Asked about the declining share of the Hindu population, Owaisi said, “Forward me the report then I will respond. Whose report is this? Who made this report? Report from Whatsapp University. Who made this report?”

RJD’s Tejashwi Prasad Yadav on Thursday cast doubts on the EAC-PM report, questioning how the Centre could determine the Hindu and Muslim population without even conducting a Census. The former deputy CM alleged that the ruling dispensation at creating a rift between Hindus and Muslims to divert attention from “real issues”.

“You arrived at numbers without holding a Census? Wasn’t Census due in 2021? You are the PM of the country… please give up your Hindu-Muslim binary and talk about issues,” taking a potshot at PM Narendra Modi.

Meanwhile, the Population Foundation of India (PFI) expressed deep concerns about media reports misrepresenting the data published in the EAC-PM report.

The PFI, an independent think tank working on population trends and reproductive and sexual health, said that media outlets were misreporting the findings contained in the working paper “to spread alarm regarding the Muslim population”. “Such interpretations are not only inaccurate but also misleading and baseless,” it said, according to The Hindu.

With inputs from agencies