From missile launches to sending poop balloons to South: What's North Korea up to?

North Korea seems to be in a frenzy this week. After a failed satellite launch, floating hundreds of trash-filled balloons into the South and firing a volley of 10 short-range ballistic missiles, Pyongyang seems in no mood to keep calm.

Experts believe that the flurry of recent activity from North Korean supremo Kim Jong Un’s regime might be viewed as a sharp retort to China, South Korea, and Japan, who recently held a rare summit, especially in light of their joint statement this week addressing Kim Jong Un’s nuclear arsenal.

What is North Korea up to? Let’s take a closer look

What’s triggering the rogue nation?

This week, China, South Korea, and Japan convened a trilateral summit and sought a three-way cooperation on security. In a joint statement, they even reiterated positions on regional peace and stability and called on “denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula”.

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It’s a standard phrase the trio – even key Pyongyang diplomatic ally and trading partner China – have long used.

The denuclearisation drama began during a high-profile summit in Singapore in 2018 with then-US President Donald Trump, Kim Jong Un personally signed a joint declaration pledging to completely denuclearise the Korean Peninsula.

It was Kim’s sincere attempt though, as per former South Korean President Moon Jae-in. He said in his recent memoir that Pyongyang’s leader would have abandoned his nuclear program “if there was a guarantee of regime survival.”

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Then what irked Kim Jong Un?

Since Kim’s second summit with Trump collapsed in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea has abandoned diplomacy, doubling down on weapons development and rejecting Washington’s offers of talks.

The historic summit between the two leaders had ended abruptly on a bitter note without any agreement on nuclear disarmament or easing tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

Since then, North Korea has overhauled its laws.

While Pyongyang first called itself a “nuclear-armed state” in its constitution back in 2012, it passed a new law in 2022 that Kim said made that status “irreversible”. It was even formally enshrined in North Korea’s constitution in 2023.

This law also outlined the hierarchical structure for controlling the country’s nuclear weapons, placing Kim firmly at the helm, and asserted the nation’s right to engage in pre-emptive strikes “automatically” when threatened.

This week, Pyongyang further denounced efforts to dismantle its nuclear arsenal as an attack on its “constitutional position” and a “grave political provocation”.

Is Pyongyang upset with China?

North Korea is showing their “discomfort towards China” for allowing denuclearisation to be included in the joint statement with Japan and the South, Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.

As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China has previously condemned North Korea’s nuclear tests and lent support to sanctions aimed at curbing its nuclear ambitions. However, against the backdrop of deteriorating relations with Washington, Beijing has progressively impeded US-led initiatives to impose stricter sanctions on Pyongyang. Instead, China has pointed to joint military drills between the US and South Korea as a factor exacerbating regional tensions.

But that’s not enough for Pyongyang. It “may have been dissatisfied with Beijing’s stance” at this week’s trilateral summit, Yang stated, adding that the North Korean leader may have felt “China was being too ‘passive’ and therefore wasn’t doing enough for them”.

‘Poo warfare’ with South

South Korean activists have long sent balloons filled with anti-Kim propaganda, cash, and even USBs of television dramas northwards, infuriating Pyongyang, which recently vowed to retaliate in kind.

From Tuesday night to Wednesday, the North sent some 260 balloons carrying bags of trash including batteries, toilet paper, and plastic waste into South Korea.

Initial reports claimed there was animal faeces in the bags of waste, sparking “poopaganda” headlines. The South Korean military responded and deployed its explosives ordinance unit and chemical and biological warfare to inspect and collect the objects. The military’s even gave a stern warning to North Korea to cease its “inhumane and crass action.”

Kim Yo Jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un described the waste-filled balloons as a “genuine ‘gift of sincerity’” and mocked Seoul saying it’s an act of “freedom of expression”: a justification Seoul has previously used to explain its activists’ actions.

What is next for North Korea?

North Korea is drawing ever-closer to Russia, said Kim Dong-yup, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies, pointing to Monday’s failed satellite launch.

On Monday, North Korea tried to launch a new military reconnaissance satellite, but that mission came to its fiery end after its newly developed rocket engine exploded in flight.

The North Korean attempt the professor said, “used new technologies, such as liquefied oxygen and kerosene, which are primarily utilised by Russia,”, adding that this showed the North was trying to advance and apply Moscow’s technical assistance.

Seoul has alleged that North Korea is sending weapons to Russia in exchange for satellite assistance for use in Ukraine.

Asan Institute research fellow Lee Dong-gyu said that China may also have a window to draw closer to South Korea later this year if Trump is re-elected as US President.

He added, that cracks may then appear in the so-called “ironclad” US-South Korea security alliance, which would give China an opening “to expand its influence to South Korea by leveraging the North Korean issue”.

With inputs from AFP