Russian plane crashes near Ukraine: The unanswered questions around the incident

On Wednesday (24 January), a Russian IL-76, a heavy-lift military transport aircraft, came crashing down in the Belgorod region near the Russia-Ukraine border. Shortly after the plane crashed, Moscow blamed Kyiv for the incident, with the Russian defence ministry saying, “The plane was destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the area of Liptsy, Kharkiv region, using an anti-aircraft missile system.”

On the other hand, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for full clarity over the crash, accusing Moscow of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners of war”.

However, there are several questions surrounding the incident. First, were there Ukrainian prisoners of war on board, as claimed by Russia? Secondly, did Kyiv shoot down the plane? Third, if not Kyiv, then who attacked the aircraft?

We take a closer look at what’s happened so far and try to unravel the mystery.

Russia’s IL-76 crashes down

Around 11 am Moscow time, a Russian IL-76 aircraft crashed in the Belgorod region during a routine flight. Visuals of the crash, which had been shot from a distance, showed the jet rapidly losing altitude and heading straight to the ground. The video clearly showed that the pilot had lost control of the plane and it crashed near a residential area.

The crash occurred in the Korochansky district, northeast of Belgorod region of Russia, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said on Telegram.

A video posted on Telegram by Baza, a channel linked to Russian security services, showed a large aircraft falling and exploding in a vast fireball.

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Shortly after the crash took place, the Russian ministry of defence said that Ukraine had shot down the IL-76 was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) who were to be swapped, along with six crew and three Russian servicemen. All of those on board were killed, Russia said.

Russia’s parliament speaker, Vyacheslav Volodin, was quoted as saying by local media, “They shot their own soldiers in the air. Their own. Our pilots, who were carrying out a humanitarian mission, were shot down.”

Andrei Kartapolov, a senior lawmaker in Russia’s parliament and a retired general, also said during a parliamentary session that the plane had been shot down by three missiles. He didn’t provide any source for his information, adding that investigations would confirm that the missiles were Western-provided — Patriots or IRIS-Ts.

In a later statement, posted on Telegram, the defence ministry blamed Kyiv for the crash, which it labelled a “terrorist attack”.

The plane was destroyed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the area of Liptsy, Kharkiv region, using an anti-aircraft missile system,” the ministry said.

Hours after the plane crashed, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, speaking in front of the United Nations, called it a “terrorist attack”. “The Ukrainian side launched an air defence missile from the Kharkiv region… it was a fatal strike,” he said.

Ukraine reacts

Following Russia blaming Ukraine for the crash, Kyiv said it regarded Russian military aircraft approaching Belgorod as legitimate targets but stopped short of acknowledging it fired at the plane.

When asked about the prisoner swap, the Ukrainian state body responsible for prisoner exchanges said that a planned prisoner exchange with Russia was “currently not taking place” following the crash.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a video address late on Wednesday accused Russia of “playing with the lives” of Ukrainian prisoners of war and called for an international investigation.

“It is obvious that the Russians are playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners, with the feelings of their relatives and with the emotions of our society,” he said.

He stressed the need to wait for “facts”, as he outlined how he has coordinated government departments to look into various aspects of the crash — something made difficult by the fact that it occurred on Russian soil.

“GUR (Ukrainian military intelligence) is engaged in finding out the fate of all prisoners,” he added.

Questions remain

But even as Russia and Ukraine trade barbs on the incident, experts have pointed out that there are some details that don’t necessarily add up.

Sky News analyst Professor Michael Clarke doubt on the Russian claims, as the plane appeared to be “in one piece” as it came down over Belgorod. He said footage of the crash shows “an aircraft that’s pretty well in one piece”.

“If it had been hit by three missiles, as the Russians originally said, it certainly wouldn’t be in one piece,” he says.

There’s also doubts being cast if the plane was indeed carrying Ukrainian POWs. A Forbes report stated that the video from the crash site does not depict a lot of bodies. And a list of prisoners the Russians claimed were on the Il-76 reportedly includes names of Ukrainian POWs Russia already exchanged.

There’s also another factor that is casting aspersions over the claim of the plane carrying Ukrainian POWs. As per Russia’s account, the plane carried three Russian personnel to guard the POWs. However, a former Ukrainian PoW, Maksym Kolesnikov, said Wednesday in a post on X that when he had been transported by plane from Bryansk to Belgorod, there were about 20 military police for 50 prisoners.

А ось перша 100% брехня про Іл.
Міністерство війни росії заявило, що на Іл-76 було 65 полонених, 6 членів екіпажу і 3 (ТРИ) супроводжуючих.
Це повний пиздьож. Коли мене везли літаком з Брянську в Бєлгород, то на 50 полонених було десь рил 20 з їх воєнної поліції. 3 охоронця, ага.

— Max Kolesnikov (@mx_kolesnikov) January 24, 2024

There are also questions being raised if Ukraine, did indeed, bring down the plane. This is because shortly after plane crashed, the Ukrainska Pravda news website quoted an armed forces source saying it was “their job”, and that the plane had been carrying Russian S300 missiles.

However, that was later corrected. But this indicates that Kyiv could very well have been responsible for bringing down the plane. Also, the statement from the Ukrainian Military Intelligence does hint that they were behind the incident.

Only thorough investigations, preferably by an independent body, will be able to decode what exactly happened. But experts note that the incident proves that the Russia-Ukraine war continues to grind on — it will complete two years next month.

With inputs from agencies