Two years on, the cost of Russia’s war in Ukraine

It is the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It was on 24 February 2022 that Moscow commenced its “special military operation” to “demilitarise and denazify” its neighbour Ukraine.

Two years later, there is still no sight of peace and an end to the conflict. Relentless bombings, destroyed homes, displaced people and growing war fatigue have become a reality in Ukraine.

Russian president Vladimir Putin seems in no mood to end the war unless his terms are met. “Russia is playing the long game, and Ukraine is fighting for its continued existence. This a war of attrition that will not end anytime soon,” Mary Kate Schneider, director of global studies at Loyola University Maryland, told USA TODAY.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine proceeds to third year, let’s take a look at the conflict in numbers.

Ukraine war: Death toll

As many as 315,000 Russian soldiers have died or were injured since the conflict began, Reuters reported last December citing a declassified intelligence report by the United States.

According to the report, Russia went to the war with 360,000 personnel in February 2022, of which 87 per cent died or sustained injuries.

As per Ukraine’s count, Russia has lost 405,000 personnel in two years of war. Days after Moscow captured Ukraine’s strategic eastern city of Avdiivka last week, Kyiv’s military claimed 1,200 Russian fighters were killed in a single day.

In January, Britain’s armed forces minister James Heappey told UK lawmakers that about 350,000 Russian troops had been killed or wounded in action in Ukraine.

Russian officials reject Western estimates of casualties, saying they are highly exaggerated.

The US estimated in August 2023 that Ukraine’s military casualties were 70,000 with 100,000 to 120,000 wounded, as per The New York Times (NYT) report.

Russia’s fatalities are higher as its troops outnumber Ukrainians on the battlefield almost three to one.

Last November, Moscow reportedly claimed that 383,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed or wounded in the war. The exact figures are difficult to determine as neither Kyiv nor Moscow have provided details of their total military casualties.

The war has also claimed thousands of civilian lives in Ukraine.

As per the latest report of the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine, 10,582 civilians have died since the conflict began in February 2022. An additional 19,875 civilians had been injured.

“The actual numbers are likely significantly higher,” it said.

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Displaced population

The human cost of the conflict must be discussed when looking at the two years of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

As per the United Nations, over 14 million (1.4 crore) people – almost one-third of Ukraine’s population – were forced to flee their homes during the two years of the conflict. Of these, over 4.5 million people returned home from either abroad or displacement within Ukraine.

The UN’s International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates that about 6.5 million people are living as refugees outside the country, reported Al Jazeera. Nearly 3.7 million people continue to be internally displaced in Ukraine, IOM says.

Ukraine’s population reached 37.9 million in early 2024. Russia’s population of 144 million is over three times larger.

Ukraine’s territory loss

Since the war began, Russia has seized an estimated nearly 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory, noted USA TODAY.

After four months of relentless attacks, Russia finally captured Avdiivka this month in its biggest victory since Ukraine’s failed counter-offensive last year.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed to regain all territory captured by Russia.

As per US think tank The Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft experts Anatol Lieven and George Beebe, “there is now little realistic prospect of further Ukrainian territorial gains on the battlefield, and there is a significant risk that Ukraine might exhaust its manpower and munitions and lay itself open to a devastating Russian counterattack.”

They say the best and only solution is for all sides to enter negotiations before Ukraine is destroyed.

The cost of Ukraine war

A senior US defense official said recently that the Ukraine war has probably cost Russia up to $211 billion. Moscow has also lost $10 billion in cancelled or delayed arms sales, Reuters reported citing the official.

The US Congress has allocated $113 billion in funding to Ukraine through various packages since February 2022. Of this, $45.2 billion in funds were given for military assistance and $46 billion in economic and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, noted Responsible Statecraft’s article.

The US spent $4.7 billion on rearming allies and $15.2 billion in expanding its military operations in Europe. After two years, Washington is struggling to get more funding approved for Ukraine, with a $60 billion aid package for Kyiv still pending.

So far, Britain has pledged a total of £12 billion in support for Ukraine, of which £7.1 billion is for military assistance. In January, the UK announced an additional £2.5 billion in funding for the year 2024-25.

In terms of weapons, the US has provided 3,097,000 rounds of artillery to Ukraine so far, as per the Responsible Statecraft report. Most of these – 2,000,000 – were 155 mm shells. It also sent 400,000,000 grenades and bullets to Ukraine.

The Pentagon delivered 76 tanks to Ukraine, including 31 Abrams and 45 Soviet-era T-72Bs. Ukraine also got 3,631 American armoured vehicles, ranging from medical trucks to infantry fighting vehicles, and 39 US-made mobile rocket launcher HIMARS, the report noted.

Russia’s defence ministry said this week that the Ukrainian military had lost over 15,100 tanks and armoured vehicles in the two years of war. According to the US-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War, Moscow had lost more than 3,000 tanks since February 2022.

From homes to power plants, missile strikes and shellings have damaged hundreds of thousands of buildings and infrastructure in Ukraine. A World Bank report last year found that Ukraine will need $411 billion over the next decade to recover and rebuild from the conflict, reported Al Jazeera.

With inputs from agencies