Russia-Ukraine war, climate change: Two major sticking points at G20

While India is set to host a blockbuster edition of G20 Summit this weekend, a couple of sticking points have emerged in the way of a ‘Delhi declaration’ – climate change and the Russia-Ukraine war. Saudi Arabia and China are opposing language about phasing down or phasing out fossil fuels. Russia is at odds with the West about a strong condemnation of the war in Ukraine. India, meanwhile, has sought to ‘accommodate the views’ of Russia and China regarding the war in order to break the deadlock. A failure to produce a joint statement – which is normal diplomatic practice at the end of such a meet – at the G20 summit in New Delhi would be a first in the G20’s history. India assumed the rotating presidency of the G20 from Indonesia in December 2022. Let’s take a closer look: Russia-Ukraine war Leaders including US President Joe Biden gather in New Delhi this weekend for a summit aimed at boosting food security, climate action and debt relief for poor nations.

But the deliberations of the world’s 20 biggest economies have been hindered by differences over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine that have hardened since last year’s Bali summit, delegates said. Western nations are demanding a ‘strong condemnation’ as a condition for agreeing to a Delhi declaration. But Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov – standing in for his boss President Vladimir Putin –has warned that Moscow will block the final declaration if it does not adequately reflect its stand. [caption id=“attachment_13067422” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is attending the G20 Summit in New Delhi in place of Vladimir Putin.[/caption] The United States has remained upbeat about the joint statement. US National Security Council (NSC) coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby was quoted as saying. “We hope so. We certainly hope so. But, I mean, I think you know it’s difficult to get 20 clocks to chime at the same time, so we’re going to have to – we’re going to work on this. We know that the Indians also would like to see a joint communique if you will, so we’ll see where it goes,”

However, it has also flagged potential issues.

“Often times the sticking point tends to be the war in Ukraine because countries like Russia and China are less likely to sign on to language that the rest of the international community is more uncomfortable signing on to, so we’ll see where it goes. But we’d like to see that, absolutely,” Kirby added. US NSA Jake Sullivan earlier this week said getting ‘absolute consensus’ on Ukraine would be challenging because Russia has a seat at the table, as per Deccan Chronicle. Sullivan also harshly criticised Moscow, saying, “The reality is that Russia’s illegal war has had devastating social and economic consequences, and the poorest countries on the planet are bearing the brunt of that.” Sullivan also vowed that his boss would continue to back Ukraine. “And, he (Biden) will continue to emphasize that the US will support Ukraine for as long as it takes to redeem these principles,” he added. India plays peacemaker India, playing peacemaker, has proposed that a G20 statement condemning the war in Ukraine also accommodate the views of Russia and China to avoid an impasse for the divided bloc. India has suggested that the G20, while condemning the suffering caused by Russia’s invasion, also reflect Moscow and Beijing’s view that the forum is not the place for geopolitics. G20 sherpas have been going back and forth over the document for four days before leaders begin deliberations on Saturday. The G20 Sherpas made a last-ditch effort during a meeting in Nuh on Wednesday but failed to break the deadlock, as per Deccan Chronicle. “As long as everyone endorses the structure of the document, that is a consensus. We are trying for a situation that everyone including Russia, G7 and China are happy that their views are there,” one of the Indian officials said. The other option is a more general statement on the war in the joint declaration, another official said. Both declined to be named because of government rules. External affairs minister S Jaishankar, speaking on the sidelines of the G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting, was quoted as saying by CNBC, that there were “divergences.”

“…Very frankly they were concerned with the Ukraine conflict. There were divergences.”

But the US, UK, EU and other Western states have not acceded to India’s suggested changes – to make the statement palatable to Russia and China – to the language on the Ukraine war, as per Deccan Chronicle.  The Wire quoted a senior EU official as saying India’s language over Ukraine does “not go far enough”. [caption id=“attachment_13084342” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has admitted the two sides are apart on language about the Ukraine war. ANI[/caption] At the G20 Bali summit held in November 2022, leaders managed to produce a declaration at the eleventh hour after wrangling over Ukraine for days. As per Deccan Chronicle, the declaration at the 17th G20 Summit noted “other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions”. Russia and China had initially opposed the declaration before changing their minds.  The countries have seemingly had a change of heart since India took over the G20 presidency. According to the newspaper, they are now vociferously in opposition to the Bali Declaration’s language on the Ukraine war.  Climate change As per NDTV, despite G20 sherpas having advanced on several issues, the climate change declaration remains a major stumbling block. Tripling the capacity of global renewable energy, getting off fossil fuels especially coal and funding green energy in developing nations are the main climate issues that will be discussed. While many countries want pledges to reduce the use of fossil fuels and greenhouse gases and greater reliance on renewable energy, China and Saudi Arabia remain opposed to such language. According to India Today, New Delhi is siding with Moscow, Beijing and Riyadh when it comes to the West’s notion of a massive push towards renewable energy by 2030 in concert with massively tamping down on greenhouse gasses by 2035. A meet of the G20 energy ministers in July did not even mention coal in their joint statement, as per NDTV. Instead, it said nations should “phase out and rationalize, over the medium term, inefficient fossil fuel subsidies that encourage wasteful consumption and commit to achieve this objective, while providing targeted support to the poorest and most vulnerable, and in line with national circumstances,” as per Indian Express. What do experts say? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has sought to use India’s leadership of the G20 to showcase its emergence as a major power with an ability to forge unity on big global issues. Experts say if the Delhi meeting fails to produce a joint statement, that would potentially raise questions about the group’s viability. Senior trade economist Rahul Roy-Chowdhury seemed downbeat about the chances, telling News18, “…There’s no hope of any agreement between the differing sides on the Ukraine conflict in the G20.” He added that New Delhi is in a tough spot as it has not criticised Moscow.

A piece in India Today noted the stark divide on climate change between the two sides.

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“There seems to be a pulsating urgency from G7 nations to escalate to net-zero commitments swiftly, a perspective counteracted by developing nations keen on safeguarding their energy requisites and economic trajectories,” the piece stated. It noted how India has been discussing the ‘first-mover advantage’ enjoyed by the West and has asked for the Global South the opportunity to develop while taking on climate change. “Globally, wealthy nations missed their pledge to provide, by 2020, $100 billion a year in climate finance to poorer nations, which has put a question mark on the intent of the “historical” polluters in helping vulnerable countries who have had little to do with global warming,” the piece noted. Tejal Kanitkar, associate professor at the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru, told CNBC developing nations ought not to agree to any global target unless it comes with a clear commitment from Western nations to achieve these goals. Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center think-tank, told BBC the lack of a joint declaration would certainly reflect badly on both India and the G20. However, Kugelman noted India’s successful history of working with nations that have had issues – particularly Russia and the United States. “So Delhi could be that country which is able to work through their differences. It wants to leverage its reputation of a balancer, but it’s going to be very difficult,” he told BBC. [caption id=“attachment_13091402” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is hosting the first G20 Summit in Southeast Asia. ANI[/caption] “It would certainly lead to a crisis of confidence in the Group,” said Creon Butler, director of the Global Economy and Finance Programme at London’s Chatham House thinktank. Butler predicted there would be plenty of handwringing and speculation over the India summit, but ultimately countries will stick to the G20 format because it was a crucial link between the G7 bloc of wealthiest nations and the developing world. But Tanvi Madan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, the lack of a joint declaration won’t necessarily be seen as a failure. Madan said Delhi as host can issue a chair’s summary – showing agreement on 90 per cent of matters. India remains confident But India’s sherpa remains confident. India’s G-20 sherpa Amitabh Kant on Friday was quoted as saying by India Today that the declaration is ‘almost ready’. Kant was further quoted by Business Today as saying that the statement would reflect the sentiments of developing nations and the Global South. “No document in the world would have such a strong voice for the Global South and the developing countries,” Kant added. Kant, however, added that he could give no voice to the declaration until the final decision is made. “G20 is an economic forum discussing growth and development. In Bali last year, issues of conflict that impact development like food, fuel and fertilisers were discussed and this year it has been a discussion, too. But the leaders will have to take the final decision,” Kant added. G20 nations represent around 85 per cent of the world’s GDP, 75 per cent of the world’s trade and around two-thirds of the global population. The grouping includes Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the UK, the US and the European Union. Spain is invited as a permanent member. It has been reported that the African Union may be joining the group imminently. With inputs from agencies