Russia takes control of the Ukrainian city Avdiivka. What this means for the war

It’s Day 726 of the Russia-Ukraine war and Vladimir Putin is a happy man. Happy, because his troops have achieved an “important victory”— the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka. On Sunday (18 February), Russian troops raised the flag in several parts of the eastern town of Avdiivka after Ukrainian forces beat a hasty retreat from the ruins of a town they’ve been defending for a decade.

The fall of Avdiivka to Moscow is the country’s biggest win since capturing the city of Bakhmut in May last year and comes almost two years to the day since President Vladimir Putin triggered a full-scale war by ordering the invasion of Ukraine.

Earlier on Saturday, Ukraine had ordered the complete withdrawal from the city, after being unable to fend off the Russian assault. “Based on the operational situation around Avdiivka, in order to avoid encirclement and preserve the lives and health of servicemen, I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defence on more favourable lines,” General Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s top military commander, said in a statement.

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Confirming the same, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukrainian commanders had decided to retreat from the besieged city in the face of relentless “meat wave” attacks by Russian troops.

As Moscow claims a significant win, we take a closer look at why the fall of Avdiivka matters in this war.

The city of Avdiivka

The city of Avdiivka, also known as Avdeyevka by Russians, is situated around 15 miles from the Russian-occupied region of Donetsk and is a part of Ukrainian territory that Moscow has been trying to capture through direct and proxy assaults.

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The city had a pre-war population of around 32,000. However, authorities say that today that number is less than 1,000, with most of them living in cellars and basements. According to Ukrainian officials, not a single building in the city remains intact.

Incidentally, the city was home to a coke plant that was one of Europe’s top producers before the war.

Russia and Ukraine have been fighting over Avdiivka for years. In 2014, pro-Russian separatists invaded and briefly captured the city, only for Ukrainian forces to take it back and fortify it. A major uptick in violence in 2017 created a humanitarian crisis in the city, shrinking its population to just a few thousands.

The battle for Avdiivka

While both sides have been fighting for the city, the big offensive against Avdiivka began in October last year, with Putin’s troops launching several battalions against the edges of the city and shelling the area day and night.

It was only in January that Russia was able to breach the city’s borders and break into the residential areas. According to a New York Times report, Russia used its scorched-earth tactics , bombing the place to ruins, and then sending in wave after wave of troops in assaults that left thousands of dead and wounded, according to military experts. In fact, analysts noted that Russia’s battle in Avdiivka was extracting a huge human toll. Last November, British military intelligence said the fighting had contributed to “some of the highest Russian casualty rates of the war so far”. A member of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanised Brigade had told Radio Liberty, “Every day there are new fresh forces, regardless of the weather, regardless of anything — of losses. No matter what, they keep crawling — literally over the bodies of their own.”

And in recent days, Russia’s attacks had stepped up significantly, with Moscow carrying out air strikes with targeting assistance from special forces, and using artillery, drones, helicopters and tanks as well as infantry.

The Washington Post citing The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank, said Russian forces launched large numbers of glide bombs at parts of the city. “The Russian ability to conduct these mass strikes for several days in the most active part of the front line suggests that Ukrainian forces were not able to deny them access to the airspace around Avdiivka,” the ISW wrote. “Russian forces likely leveraged this temporary localised air superiority to facilitate the capture of much of the settlement.”

And on Saturday, the Ukrainian army chief realising the men were in danger, called for their retreat, saying that he had acted to “preserve the lives and health of servicemen”, stabilise the situation and move troops to more favourable defence lines.

Following their triumph of Avdiivka, Russia’s defence ministry spokesperson, Major General Igor Konashenkov said measures were being taken to “completely clear the town of militants”. Moreover, Russian media showed Ukrainian flags being removed and the installation of Russia’s white, blue and red tricolour being raised.

#Breaking : The Russian army is completing the occupation of the Ukraine city of Avdiivka. There was a battle there for many months , and here, Russia is hoisting its flag over one of the tallest buildings in the city . This is bad news for Biden and Europe. #Russia #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/o9IZt7xqBs

— Kbar57 (@kbar57) February 18, 2024

Following its retreat, Zelenskyy, who was present at the Munich Security Conference , said: “The ability to save our people is the most important task for us.

“In order to avoid being surrounded, it was decided to withdraw to other lines.”

Significance of Avdiivka

The fall of Avdiivka to Russia is a strategic and symbolic blow to the Ukrainian forces. Avdiivka was a stronghold of Ukrainian defences in the Donetsk region, protecting several key Ukrainian military positions farther west and putting the nearby Russian-controlled city of Donetsk under constant threat.

The fall of Avdiivka creates an opening for Russia. It would give Russian forces a step forward towards the strategic city of Pokrovsk, a logistical hub for the Ukrainian army. That would also bring them a small step closer to their goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region, which the Kremlin claims to have annexed but does not fully control.

The win also serves as a huge boost for Russian morale and demoralise Ukrainian forces. As Mykola Bielieskov of the National Institute for Strategic Studies, was quoted as saying that taking Avdiivka would not decisively tip the situation in Moscow’s favour but “would make the situation more tenable for occupied Donetsk as a major Russian logistics hub”.

The win in Avdiivka is also important for Putin ahead of the elections in March. The win cements his stature as a powerful leader and also gives credence to Putin’s unending war in Ukraine. As New York Times wrote the win could become a bragging point for President Vladimir Putin of Russia, as he seeks a fifth presidential term .

It remains to be seen how the Ukrainian Army, now undermanned and starved of ammunition, will react to the fall and also defend other towns in the face of unending Russian assaults.

As for the allies of Ukraine, this does not bode well as Kyiv will put more pressure for arms and ammunition. Zelenskyy has already pushed for countries to give Ukraine longer-range weapons and more air defence systems.

“Unfortunately, keeping Ukraine in the artificial deficit of weapons, particularly in the deficit of artillery and long-range capabilities, allows Putin to adapt to the current intensity of the war,” Zelenskyy said in Germany. “The self-weakening of democracy over time undermines our joint results.”

With inputs from agencies