Russia election: What Putin’s win means for the war and the world

The Russian election result is out. No surprises there. President Vladimir Putin has claimed his fifth term in office.

After a three-day election, Putin won by a landslide of 87 per cent, according to the country’s exit polls. With anti-war candidates barred from the election, there was no serious challenger to the Russian president.

With another six-year term, the leader will remain in office until 2030. Now what he does from here on is concerning.

We take a look at what Putin’s victory means for the Russia-Ukraine war and the world. And should we be worried about what happens next?

What happened in the Russian election?

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The Russian election was predictable but saw some drama. There were sporadic acts of defiance carried out during the voting.

On the last day, Sunday, heeding a call from Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s widow, Yulia Navalnaya , voters turned out in large numbers at noon in Russia and outside Russian embassies to show their dissent against Putin and the war.

“The Kremlin did not want this to happen,” CNN’s former Moscow bureau chief Jill Dougherty told the publication. “The long lines in Russia were significant.”

It is unlikely that the protest could snowball into a sustained movement because of the repressive measures in Russia. At least 80 protesters were arrested on the final day of the polling. In February, the Russian government cracked down on those who came out to mourn Nalavny.

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In the election, Putin faced three candidates all wetted by the Kremlin. However, when election officials said that the results gave the Russian president more than 87 per cent of the vote, he claimed that the country’s democracy was more transparent than many in the West.

Voting also took place in the occupied regions of Ukraine, which were annexed but not in complete control of Russia. In some cases, election workers took ballot boxes to people’s homes along with soldiers, forcing them to vote. In these regions, Putin’s margin of victory was higher than Russia, according to a report by The New York Times.

Also read: Russia election: Why Putin will never announce a successor

Why the election win matters to Putin

The election results were predictable. Yet this vote was important to Putin. The victory gives him a full three decades of leading Russia as either president or prime minister, adding to his legitimacy.

“Just winning has never been enough for Putin. He must win in a fashion that demonstrates that he remains the master of the Russian political system,” a distinguished fellow at the Council of Foreign Relations wrote before the election.

That is exactly what the Russian president has achieved with the win. The result of the first election since the invasion of Ukraine will be seen as a show of unity behind Putin’s war efforts. The public support, the Kremlin will claim, remains intact despite the conflict taking a toll on the country with high casualties and amid West sanctions that pressure the Russian economy.

So what does the win mean for the war?

Putin will see the win in Russia as a mandate to press ahead in the war in Ukraine. The dictator was already seen flexing his muscles on Monday.

He warned the West that a direct conflict between Russia and the US-led NATO military alliance would mean the planet was one step away from World War III , but added that hardly anyone wanted such a scenario. He has vowed to strengthen the country’s armed forces and prioritise what he called Russia’s “special military operation” in Ukraine

“These elections are a means for Putin to legitimise his decision to go to war in Ukraine,” Andrei Kolesnikov, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, based in Moscow, was quoted as saying by the Guardian ahead of the polls.

There is speculation that the president could order a second military mobilisation to fight in Ukraine. The first came in September 2022, leading to protests and Russians feeling the country. It could be an unpopular move but it might mollify relatives of soldiers who were drafted 18 months ago.

“Russian leaders are now talking of ‘consolidating the whole of Russian society around its defence needs,’” Brian Michael Jenkins, a senior adviser at the RAND Corporation think tank told The Associated Press (AP).

“The precise meaning of this phrase is not entirely clear, but it suggests that Russia’s leadership understands that the war Putin describes will go on for a long time, and therefore resources must be mobilised… In other words, Russian society must be organised for perpetual warfare,” he added.

What does Putin’s sixth term mean for the world?

The president continues to maintain his iron grip over Russia. He has squashed dissent, the Russian economy has survived sanctions, and recent gains on the battlefield point to a growing advantage towards Putin’s side.

In the US, which is Ukraine’s largest military backer, there are early signs of fatigue. The November elections could further disrupt support for Kyiv.

Meanwhile, Russia continues to strengthen its ties with its allies, especially China. In his victory speech, Putin forecast that the relationship between the two nations would grow stronger in the coming years.

“The relations between Russia and China are a stabilising factor, while good personal relations between the leaders of the two nations allow to develop ties even further,” Putin said at his campaign headquarters, according to Tass news agency. “Our relations have been taking shape over the past two decades. They are very strong and we are complementing each other.”

As tensions between Washington and Beijing rise, Xi Jinping sees Putin as an important partner. Though China maintains neutrality, it has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“…China’s stance enabled Xi to stay focused on deeper goals: he sees Putin as a crucial partner in the face of rising tensions with the US and in reshaping a world he believes is unfairly dominated by rules and values set by Washington and its allies. A stable relationship with Moscow, too, allows Beijing to focus on other areas of concern such as Taiwan and the South China Sea,” writes Simone McCarthy in the CNN.

But Xi is not alone. North Korea’s Kim Jong Un is also growing closer to Putin. He met the president in Russia on a rare trip to a foreign nation recently. Kim is reportedly deploying weapons to Moscow and this comes amid growing coordination between the US and South Korea.

India has also maintained neutrality in the war. It continues to strengthen ties with the US but has not alienated Russia and buys oil from the country at discounted rates. Putin has been all praise from Prime Minister Narendra Modi .

So while the West portrays the Russian president as the villain, that is not the case in several countries, especially those with developing economies. For some, taking a neutral approach could be for economic reasons; for others the idea of a new world order without a dominating US is alluring.

With Putin’s six more years in power, many are likely to be reassured about their stance on Russia.

With inputs from agencies