Rishi Sunak shelves flagship Rwanda, smoking policies before election: What this means for his campaign

For the Conservatives in the United Kingdom, the Rwanda deportation bill, as well as the recently proposed smoking ban for a certain age group have been their flagship policies in recent times. Now, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announcing snap elections, these policies have been shelved. They can not come into effect before the elections begin.

This development has adversely affected Sunak’s campaign.

We explain why the policies have been shelved and how they are negatively impacting the incumbent PM’s bid for a new term.

The unexpected election call

On Wednesday afternoon, Conservative MPs were caught off guard by Rishi Sunak’s sudden decision to call for an early general election. Even senior cabinet ministers were left in the dark on purpose. To keep the decision under wraps, they had even been sent a fake agenda for their meeting for the day.

This abrupt move sparked a range of emotions within the party, from enthusiasm to outrage. It has also affected policies that are in the pipeline.

The Rwanda policy setback

The Rwanda immigration policy has been a cornerstone of the Conservative Party’s approach to handling the immigration crisis in the UK. Initially proposed over two years ago, the policy aimed to deport people who crossed the English Channel in small boats to come to the UK. A small fraction of them would be shipped off to Rwanda. Sunak had earlier promised that the first flight carrying illegal immigrants to the African nation would take off before the elections.

However, on the first day of his campaign, Sunak backtracked. He admitted that these deportations would not take place before the election. “The election is about the future,” Sunak stated. “If I’m elected, I’m going to get those flights off,” he said in response to a BBC reporter’s question.

The smoking ban delay

Another flagship policy of the Tories was his promise to ban young people from ever being able to buy tobacco legally, with the aim of creating a “smoke-free” next generation. However, this promise was left in doubt as the tobacco and vapes bill was conspicuously absent from the final business in the House of Commons. Leader of the Commons Penny Mordaunt did not include the bill among the legislation set to be rushed through by MPs before parliament was to be prorogued on Friday.

Media reports indicated that the bill could not be pushed through due to the constraints of a free vote within the limited legislative timeframe.

Implications for Sunak’s campaign

The shelving of the Rwanda and smoking policies has severely dented Sunak’s campaign credibility. These setbacks highlight his inability to fulfill the ambitious promises he made, which in turn fuels frustration among Tory MPs and supporters who had hoped these measures would address critical issues such as immigration and public health.

Embarrassment and erosion of credibility: Sunak’s inability to deliver on these flagship policies underscores a broader issue of credibility. His failure to implement the Rwanda deportation plan, a policy that had been promoted as a tough stance on immigration, reveals a significant gap between his promises and actual deliverables. This discrepancy is likely to erode trust among his supporters and the wider electorate, who may view his campaign pledges with increased scepticism. According to the latest Ipsos poll results, conducted as local election results were announced in early May, 62 per cent of the general public say the current Conservative government has been running the country poorly.

Internal party frustration: The backlash from within his party cannot be underestimated. A former minister expressed their dismay, saying, “If the PM truly believed in the plan, which ministers have spent so much time getting right, he would have seen it through, whatever it took. Instead, it will be difficult if not impossible to defend because it has not been shown to work.” Tory MPs and senior figures who had backed the Rwanda plan are now left in a difficult position, having to defend policies that have not been executed. The frustration among these members could lead to a lack of cohesion and support within the party, further weakening Sunak’s position as he heads into the election.

Opposition attacks: The Labour Party has been quick to capitalise on these setbacks. Labour leader Keir Starmer seized the opportunity to criticize Sunak, asserting, “I don’t think he’s ever believed that plan is going to work, and so he has called an election early enough to have it not tested before the election.”

By framing Sunak as a leader who makes grand promises but fails to deliver, Labour can strengthen its appeal to voters who are disillusioned with the current government’s performance.

How Sunak handles this remains to be seen.

With inputs from agencies