Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives now in third position in UK poll race. Who’s taken over in second place?

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party, which once held a strong second place in opinion polls, has now been pushed to the third spot. With snap elections approaching fast, the latest YouGov poll indicates that the Reform UK party has overtaken the Tories.

We explain the rise of the Reform UK party, led by the prominent political figure Nigel Farage, and explore the implications for the upcoming elections.

The rise of Nigel Farage and the Reform UK party

Nigel Farage’s political journey is a remarkable tale of persistence and influence. From his beginnings as a metals trader, Farage transitioned into politics, gaining notoriety as the head of the UK Independence Party (UKIP). His most notable achievement came with his relentless campaign for Brexit, which culminated in the 2016 referendum where the UK voted to leave the European Union.

After the Brexit vote, Farage founded the Brexit Party in 2018, aiming to ensure a complete separation from the EU. Following the UK’s official departure from the EU in early 2020, the party was rebranded as Reform UK. Farage’s decision to return to frontline politics and lead Reform UK has significantly bolstered the party’s profile and support.

Farage’s appeal lies in his ability to connect with voters who feel disenfranchised by traditional parties. His charisma and straightforward approach have made him a formidable figure in British politics, now positioning Reform UK as a serious contender.

Farage’s has successfully tapped into a growing sentiment of dissatisfaction among voters, who feel that mainstream political parties have failed to address their concerns. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among those who supported Brexit and now feel let down by the Conservative Party’s handling of the post-Brexit landscape.

What are the Reform UK’s policies?

Reform UK’s policies are a blend of populist and right-wing ideologies, designed to appeal to a broad base of voters dissatisfied with the current political establishment. The party’s key policy areas include immigration, tax cuts, and health.

• Take on immigration issues: Reform UK advocates for stringent immigration controls. The party’s platform includes achieving “net zero immigration,” which means balancing the number of immigrants with the number of people leaving the UK. They propose leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) to gain greater control over immigration laws and treating illegal immigration as a national security threat.Reform UK’s stance on immigration is one of its most defining features. The party argues that current immigration levels are unsustainable and contribute to a range of social and economic issues. By advocating for net zero immigration, Reform UK aims to drastically reduce the number of new immigrants entering the country, a policy that resonates with voters concerned about job competition and social cohesion.

• Tax cuts: Economically, Reform UK promises substantial tax cuts, arguing that the current tax burden under the Conservative government is unsustainable. They propose significant reductions in corporation tax and inheritance tax. Additionally, the party suggests raising the income tax threshold to £20,000, a sharp increase from the current £12,570, aiming to provide relief to working people.Reform UK’s tax policies are designed to appeal to both businesses and individual taxpayers. By reducing corporation tax, the party aims to stimulate economic growth and attract investment. The proposed increase in the income tax threshold is intended to benefit lower and middle-income earners, providing them with more disposable income and stimulating consumer spending.

• Health policy:  Reform UK has proposed a series of health policies aimed at addressing the NHS crisis within the first 100 days of governance. Central to their plan is the transformation of doctor and nurse availability by allowing all frontline NHS and social care staff to pay zero basic rate tax for three years. This initiative is intended to retain existing staff and attract those who have recently left. Additionally, Reform UK plans to cut waiting lists by using both UK and overseas independent healthcare providers.The party also proposes a 20 per cent tax relief on all private healthcare and insurance to incentivise wealthier individuals to seek private care, thereby reducing pressure on the NHS. They argue that this will lead to faster and better care for those relying on the NHS, as well as increased competition and lower costs in the healthcare sector. Further, Reform UK intends to end training caps for UK medical students and write off student fees pro rata over ten years of NHS service, encouraging more medical graduates to enter and remain in the public health system.

How the Reform UK is cutting into Sunak’s votes

Reform UK’s surge in the polls poses a direct threat to the Conservative Party’s voter base. Many traditional Conservative voters, disillusioned by unmet promises and ongoing issues such as high taxes and immigration concerns, are turning to Reform UK as a viable alternative.

This shift could have significant implications for the Labour Party. With the right-wing vote split between the Conservatives and Reform UK, Labour stands to benefit the most. Keir Starmer’s Labour Party currently leads in the polls with 37 per cent, and the division on the right could pave the way for a decisive Labour victory.

Farage’s rhetoric that a vote for the Conservatives is a wasted vote resonates with many voters who feel that the Tories have strayed from their core principles. This sentiment is particularly strong among those who supported Brexit and now feel betrayed by the Conservative government’s handling of the post-Brexit landscape.

Limited electoral success for Reform UK

Despite their rise in the polls, Reform UK faces significant challenges in translating this support into parliamentary seats. The UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system tends to favour larger, more established parties with concentrated geographic support. Reform UK’s support, while notable, is more evenly spread across the country, making it difficult to win individual constituencies.

Historically, smaller parties like Reform UK struggle to achieve significant representation in Parliament. However, their influence can still shape the political discourse and affect the outcomes of elections by drawing votes away from larger parties. The upcoming election will test whether Reform UK can break this pattern and secure a more substantial presence in Parliament.

The party’s limited electoral success so far does not diminish its impact on the political landscape. By drawing votes away from the Conservative Party, Reform UK could inadvertently help the Labour Party achieve a larger share of parliamentary seats. This dynamic underscores the complexity of the UK’s electoral system and the challenges faced by smaller parties in gaining a foothold in Parliament.