 "13 governments in 16 yrs: How Nepal continues to see political churn")
Nepal is once again witnessing a political churn. In fact, many political observers note that political instability has been the only constant for the Himalayan nation.
On Monday (4 March), Nepal prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ severed his Maoist party’s 15-month alliance with the Nepali Congress and forged a coalition with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), a party that had, incidentally, withdrawn support to him last February.
We take a closer look at the current political instability — what facilitated this move — and also take a deep dive into Nepal’s ever-changing political scenario.
Prachanda forges new alliance
On Monday (4 March), Nepal’s Prachanda formed a new alliance with KP Sharma Oli, dumping his 15-month partner Sher Bahadur Deuba. The move came owing to differences between Prachanda and Deuba, said a CPN-Maoist Centre party leader.
After calling it quits on the alliance, Prachanda’s party, Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), joined hands with the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) [CPN-UML], led by Oli, who was once regarded as Prachanda’s top critic.
And shortly after that Prachanda reshuffled his Cabinet, with three ministers — Padam Giri from the CPN-UML, Hit bahadur Tamang from CPN and Dol Prasad Aryal from Rashtriya Swatantra Party — being sworn in. However, they have not been assigned a portfolio yet.
With this move, Prachanda has aligned the two largest Communist parties and pushed the Nepali Congress party, which has 89 members in the 275-member House of Representatives. In fact, shortly after the new partnership was formed, Prachanda accused the Nepali Congress of being a “reactionary force” that was trying to use him.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsIn turn, Nepali Congress leader and former Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba told his party colleagues that he did not expect this “dishonesty” from Prachanda.
But what caused this rift just 15 months into the partnership?
According to a PTI news report, the partnership began developing cracks over differences between Nepali Congress leader and Finance Minister Mahat and Prachanda over the issue of budget allocation to certain projects.
And this situation worsened as Deuba wanted newly elected National Assembly member Krishna Sitaula to be made the Chairman of the National Assembly, against Prachanda’s plan to appoint his party’s fellow to the key post.
Nepal’s history of political instability
Interestingly, this is another switch in alliances in Nepal, which has seen 13 different governments since 2008, when monarchy was abolished and the country became a republic. In fact, since 2008, all the governments in the Himalayan nation have been coalitions of two or more parties, giving rise to instability.
Rewind to 2008 when the first Constituent Assembly elections were held. The Maoist Centre, spearheaded by Prachanda emerged as the single largest political force and joined hands with the CPN-UML to form a government.
However, Prachanda couldn’t hold on to power and in 2009, he resigned after President Ram Baran Yadav revoked his decision to fire Army chief Rookmangad Katawal. Then the CPN-UML joined forces with Nepali Congress with Madhav Kumar Nepal as its leader.
This partnership didn’t last long either, with Nepal resigning in 2010. In the following years, Jhala Nath Khanal and Baburam Bhattarai also became prime ministers but couldn’t hold on to power, leading to instability in the nation.
In February 2014, Sushil Koirala of the Nepali Congress was elected prime minister when his party and the CPN-UML joined hands. Eventually, it was under his tutelage that Nepal adopted a Constitution.
Then CPN-UML’s KP Sharma Oli led another coalition, including the Maoist Centre, Rastriya Prajatantra Party-Nepal, and Madhesi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik. In July 2016, Oli resigned after the Maoists withdrew their support. The Maoist Centre blamed Oli for failing to address the disputes over the constitution and the issue of transitional justice in cases related to the Maoist insurgency.
In August of the same month, Prachanda rose to the top again with the support of Congress and some fringe parties.
It was in the following year, 2017, that Nepal held elections for parliament. The Leftist alliance of the CPN-UML and Maoist Centre won the largest number of seats, almost two-thirds, in the Nepalese parliament, with Oli being re-elected as prime minister. It was also decided that Oli and Prachanda would divide the prime ministerial tenure between them. But when the time came, Oli refused to hand over the reins.
This led to a new political crisis when Oli dissolved the House of Representatives and ordered for fresh elections. However, acting on a plea by the opposition parties, the country’s supreme court intervened, and in July 2021, reinstated the House of Representatives and directed President Bidya Devi Bhandari to appoint Nepali Congress chief Sher Bahadur Deuba as prime minister.
In November 2022, the country witnessed another election with Deuba’s Nepali Congress emerging as the single-largest party. However, it fell short of the majority mark and therefore had to forge a coalition. It was then that NC partnered with Prachanda’s party and others.
However, in a shocking turn of events, Prachanda surprisingly walked out of the ruling alliance and in December 2022, with the support of the Oli’s party on the basis of an understanding between Prachanda and Oli to lead the government on a rotation basis.
This alliance didn’t last long either; in February 2023, Oli and his party, the CPN-UML, pulled out when Prachanda supported the opposition coalition’s candidate for the presidential elections.
This situation forced Prachanda to seek a vote of confidence in March last year, which he subsequently sailed through with the support of Nepali Congress, and others such as Rastriya Swatantra Party, CPN-Unified Socialist, Janata Samajwadi Party Nepal, Lokatantrik Samajwadi Party, Nagarik Unmukti Party and Janamat Party.
Impact of political flip flops
According to experts, these flip flops and political instability in Nepal is owing to politicians trying to quench their thirst for power. Political observer Jagat Nepal in a report published by The Kathmandu Post said the political parties have been joining coalitions merely to quench their thirst for power, leading to splits. “Politicians have not been honest with their ideologies. They fear that without power, they can’t survive in politics. They all rush to grab power, seeking advantages, mostly economic,” he said.
And its instability also hinders its growth. As experts note, this instability affects domestic industries. Political crises have also led to a more frequent switch of policies, creating volatility and thus, negatively affecting macroeconomic performance. If cultural and ethnic groups feel that there is economic, political, and social inequality, conflicts are more likely to occur, causing further poverty.
As others point out, the political instability also has an impact on foreign aid and investment, which the country heavily relies on.
With inputs from agencies
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