As Pope Francis remains critical, what happens next? Who could be the next pope?

Before Pope Francis was hospitalised he reportedly told an aide he won’t make it this time. Now the 88-year-old pontiff remains critical with blood tests showing mild signs of kidney failure, “which is currently under control”. He is also battling double pneumonia.

As the Pope’s condition does not improve, there is speculation about what happens next. Who could succeed him?

How serious is Pope Francis?

Pope Francis was admitted to Rome’s Gemelli Hospital with severe bronchitis on February 14 after experiencing breathing difficulties. He was then diagnosed with pneumonia in both lungs.

Now Vatican has said that there are mild signs of kidney failure. Some of Pope Francis’ blood tests indicate “an initial, mild, renal failure, which is currently under control,” the Vatican said, adding that he continues to be “vigilant and well- oriented”.

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“The complexity of the clinical picture, and the necessary wait for pharmacological therapies to provide some feedback, require that the prognosis remain reserved,” the Vatican said.

On Sunday morning, the Pope “participated in the Holy Mass, together with those who are taking care of him during these days”, according to the statement.

Earlier on Sunday, the Pope received high flows of oxygen after suffering a respiratory crisis but the Vatican said he had a peaceful night. He did not deliver the weekly Angelus prayer on Sunday, having skipped it only the third time in his 12-year papacy.

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Meanwhile, the Pope has asked Catholics to pray for him. In a message, released on Sunday, he thanked the doctors and health workers at the hospital and well-wishers.

“In recent days I have received many messages of affection, and I have been particularly struck by the letters and drawings from children,” he wrote. “Thank you for this closeness, and for the prayers of comfort I have received from all over the world! I entrust you all to the intercession of Mary, and I ask you to pray for me.”

However, there is a growing concern about the Pope. The 88-year-old has become increasingly frail and has had a long battle with lung-related medical conditions. His health concerns and age have raised questions about his succession.

How is the new pope elected?

The leader of the Roman Catholic church is chosen at the Vatican in gatherings known as the conclave. This private gathering is convened after the death of a pope or in case of a rare resignation like that of Pope Benedict XVI.

Francis is reportedly also open to stepping down. “There is no question that if he was in a situation where his ability to have direct contact [with the public] was compromised, then I think he might decide to resign,” senior cardinal Gianfranco Ravas was quoted as saying by The Sunday Times. However, the Vatican has denied any plans of resignation.

Since 1379, the Pope has been selected from a College of Cardinals, who cast the vote at the conclave. There are 138 electors of the 252 cardinals and only those below 80 can take part in the secret ballot at Sistine Chapel.

There are four rounds of voting every day – two in the morning and two in the afternoon –until a candidate receives two-thirds of the vote. The selection of the pope could take anywhere between 15 to 20 days.

The process is a closely guarded secret and the outside world knows if a Pope is picked by watching smoke from the Vatican rooftop. Black smoke indicates that no consensus is arrived. If the smoke is white, then a new Pope has been picked.

Who could succeed Pope Francis?

Several names are doing the rounds as the successor to Pope Francis. One of them is of Cardinal Pietro Parolin.

Cardinal Pietro Parolin: The 70-year-old Italian has been the Vatican’s secretary of state since 2013 and is the highest-ranking cardinal in the conclave, reports The Independent. He is said to be a moderate, not leaning to the left or right.

Cardinal Robert Sarah: According to The College of Cardinals Report, 79-year-old Robert Sarah, a Guinean is a favourite among the traditionalist faction of the Church, reports The Times.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi: He is said to be close to Pope Francis. The 69-year-old Italian is seen as a spiritual successor to Francis, according to Edward Pentin, senior contributor for the National Catholic Register and author of “The Next Pope”.

He was made a cardinal in 2019 and went on a peace mission to Ukraine, where he met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He also went to the US and met then-President Joe Biden.

Like Francis, the Zuppi has spoken in favour of the LGBTQ+ community. But this was before he was picked as cardinal.

Cardinal Peter Turkson: From Ghana, Cardinal Peter Turkson is also in the race. His views on LGBTQ+ rights are seen as many as an attempt to woo liberals. “Homosexuality should not be a criminal offence and people should be helped to understand the issue better,” he said in 2023.

Cardinal Peter Erdö: The 72-year-old Hungarian cardinal is conservative. He was against divorced or remarried Catholics receiving the Holy Communion. He was made a cardinal in 2003 by Pope John Paul II.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle: The 67-year-old is the seventh Filipino to become a cardinal. If made Pope, he will become the world’s first Asian pontiff. He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI.

Tagle like Pope Francis is left-leaning, having criticised the Church over its attitude towards homosexuals, divorced or unmarried people and unwed mothers.

Pope Francis exerts a lot of influence over the conclave. Among the 138 voting cardinals, 110 were created by him. It will be interesting to see if his successor is a liberal or a conservative.

With inputs from agencies