Can you now legally bet on the next US president and make money?

The popular crypto-based prediction market Polymarket has announced its return to the United States after years of operating offshore.

The decentralised prediction market gained notoriety during the 2024 US presidential election.

This shift comes after the platform acquired a federally regulated derivatives exchange, paving the way for legally sanctioned event-based trading, including bets on political outcomes.

After years of operating from offshore jurisdictions due to regulatory pressure, Polymarket’s strategic acquisition of QCX, a registered options exchange based in Florida and Delaware, signals its entry into the US regulatory framework.

This move comes on the heels of the closure of two major investigations into the platform by the US Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) — clearing longstanding legal hurdles that had previously kept the company out of the American market.

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How the Polymarket model works

Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, Polymarket enables users to stake digital assets on the outcome of real-world events.

Its design is decentralised and non-custodial, meaning the platform does not retain user funds or profit from trades.

All transactions are conducted using cryptocurrency and executed through smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain, ensuring transparency and automation without intermediaries.

The platform operates by posing binary questions about future events, such as election outcomes, sports results, or geopolitical developments. Users buy and sell shares in each outcome, with market prices adjusting in real time based on trading activity.

A correct prediction yields a profit, while an incorrect one leads to a loss — creating a financial incentive for users to speculate based on genuine beliefs rather than guesswork.

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By November last year, Polymarket had seen over $6 billion in global prediction trading, according to company statements.

This included more than $3.3 billion wagered specifically on the 2024 US presidential race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.

That cycle marked Polymarket’s most active period to date, with political forecasting dominating user engagement.

Why Polymarket was under the lens in the US

Despite its growing popularity, Polymarket had been effectively off-limits to users in the US since 2022, after federal regulators determined that it had been operating without proper authorisation.

The CFTC concluded that Polymarket was offering binary options contracts without necessary approvals and required the platform to restrict access to American users.

At that time, Polymarket agreed to geoblock users in the United States.

This enforcement action was followed by further scrutiny from both the CFTC and DOJ, which investigated whether Polymarket had allowed US residents to continue using the platform indirectly.

In late 2023, the FBI raided founder Shayne Coplan’s residence in New York City and seized his laptop. However, no charges were brought, and both investigations were officially closed this year.

Polymarket’s acquisition of QCX and QC Clearing, collectively referred to as QCEX, was made public just days after the inquiries were dropped.

The $112 million deal provides Polymarket with a regulated US entity through which it can legally offer its prediction services, including political betting, to American users.

“Laying the foundation to bring Polymarket home — re-entering the US as a fully regulated and compliant platform that will allow Americans to trade their opinions,” Coplan announced after the acquisition was finalised.

What we know about QCX

Little was known publicly about QCX prior to the acquisition, but the exchange had received its license from the CFTC early this month, following an application that was first submitted in June 2022.

QCX is officially categorised as a Designated Contract Market, meaning it can legally facilitate trading in futures and options contracts, including event-based derivatives.

The company is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida, and operates alongside QC Clearing, its affiliated clearinghouse. Together, these entities provide the legal and infrastructural foundation for Polymarket’s US expansion.

“Shayne has built a cultural phenomenon in Polymarket,” said Sergei Dobrovolskii, founder of QCEX.

“I am excited to bring our companies together and leverage our licences, technology, and expertise in the retail trading sector to help Polymarket reach its full potential.”

What happened during the 2024 US election

The 2024 US presidential election was a watershed moment for prediction markets. Polymarket alone processed billions of dollars in bets on the election, while its rival Kalshi claimed to have handled around $1 billion.

Polymarket markets were widely cited in political analysis, especially after they predicted notable shifts before they occurred.

Following the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, Polymarket projected a 70 per cent chance that Joe Biden would exit the race, up from just 20 per cent days earlier.

Biden formally withdrew weeks later.

In early August, Polymarket odds placed Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro at 68 per cent as Harris’s likely running mate, while Minnesota Governor Tim Walz trailed at 23 per cent.

The next day, Harris announced Walz as her pick.

Such data-driven forecasts helped bolster Polymarket’s reputation.

High-profile figures took notice: Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight, joined Polymarket as an advisor in 2024.

The platform also formed a partnership with Elon Musk’s X, integrating its Grok chatbot to provide users with real-time, contextual insights into current events.

However, not all attention was positive.

As Trump’s odds surged on Polymarket in October 2024, some observers questioned whether these market shifts reflected genuine public sentiment. Investigations later revealed that four massive bets totalling $30 million had likely influenced the price trajectory.

Polymarket launched a formal inquiry and ultimately concluded that the activity stemmed from a single French trader acting independently. The trader reportedly won $85 million upon Trump’s election victory.

The company found no evidence of coordinated manipulation or political interference.

How Trump 2.0 paved the way for Polymarket’s US comeback

Polymarket’s US comeback is happening in a dramatically different regulatory environment than just a few months ago.

During the Biden administration, federal agencies were highly active in pursuing enforcement actions against crypto firms. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and CFTC launched hundreds of cases, keeping prediction markets like Polymarket operating offshore.

The change in political leadership has shifted the landscape. Donald Trump’s second term has been accompanied by a warmer posture toward cryptocurrency and related industries.

His campaign received substantial backing from crypto advocacy groups, and Donald Trump Jr now serves as an advisor to Kalshi, one of Polymarket’s direct competitors.

While past administrations approached crypto betting platforms with scepticism, current regulators have signalled openness to prediction markets, provided they operate within licensed and regulated frameworks.

For the first time, Americans may now be able to legally wager on the outcome of the next presidential election — provided they do so on platforms operating under federally approved exchanges like QCX.

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With inputs from agencies