 "India Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Kazan, Russia. Reuters")
It was a handshake that was, perhaps, watched by the world. On Wednesday (October 23), India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Brics summit in Russia’s Kazan — the first bilateral between the two leaders since 2019.
The meeting between the two leaders came just two days after both countries signed a new border pact , which ensured that the situation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC) would return to what it was in 2020 before the standoff at Galwan took place in Ladakh. Ties between New Delhi and Bejing nosedived after the clash, drawing India closer to the United States.
We take a closer look at the significance of the meeting between Modi and Xi and decode how the two countries may benefit from a thawing of ties.
Modi-Xi finally meet
On Wednesday (October 23), India’s Modi and China’s Xi met in Kazan on the sidelines of the Brics summit, with both stressing the importance of handling their disputes. In the meeting, both leaders agreed that India and China can have a “peaceful and stable” relationship by displaying maturity and mutual respect.
In the nearly 50-minute-long meet, PM Modi highlighted the importance of peace and tranquillity in border areas and maintained that mutual trust, respect and sensitivity should be the basis of relations. “India-China relations are important for the people of our countries, and for regional and global peace and stability. Mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual sensitivity will guide bilateral relations,” said PM Modi.
On his part, Xi said the people in the two countries and the international community are paying great attention to the meeting.
“It’s important for both sides to have more communication and cooperation, properly handle our differences and disagreements and facilitate each other’s pursuit of development aspirations,” he said.
Following the meet, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told the media that both leaders also instructed the revival of the stalled Special Representatives’ dialogue mechanism, adding that PM Modi also assured India’s full support to China’s SCO presidency in 2025.
Meet many years in the making
The meeting between Modi and Xi in Kazan is almost five years in the making. The last time the two met and had a sit down was in October 2019 in India’s southern town of Mahabalipuram.
They, however, have participated in several multilateral events in the subsequent years. Modi and Xi spoke briefly on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali in November 2022. They met again in South Africa’s Johannesburg for the Brics summit in August 2023 and even released their own versions of their conversation. However, the contrast in the versions released reflected the growing strain in the ties between the two Asian giants.
China’s Xi then skipped the G20 summit hosted by New Delhi in September of the same year, another sign that relations were dipping.
It is reported that Modi and Xi’s meet in Russia was the result of India Inc putting pressure on the Indian government to sit and resolve ties, as it was hurting New Delhi’s financial interests. Indian businesses increased pressure this year on Modi’s government to relax the restrictions on China. It became clear, they said, that the tough stance on China was backfiring on Indian companies and hurting Modi’s push to attract more high-end manufacturing, including chipmakers, reported Bloomberg citing unnamed officials.
A win-win for India and China
Many note that Wednesday’s talks between Modi and Xi are a significant development, which will only further improve ties between the two nations. As Manoj Joshi at the Observer Research Foundation was quoted as saying, “It marks a major step in trying to normalise ties between the two countries. Both countries are trying to lower the temperatures, but of course, there is still a long distance to go.”
Others also agree that the talks could signal a thaw in ties and reset the relations between the two.
This, if it happens, would be a boon for both nations, financially. Biswajit Dhar, a distinguished professor at New Delhi’s Council for Social Development, told Bloomberg, “The easing of India’s border problems with China is likely to rub off on the economic relations between the two countries. The stage is set for greater participation of Chinese companies in India, both as investors and suppliers of a large range of manufacturing products.”
Many in India note that a thaw in ties would favour New Delhi, which has one of the highest trade deficits with China. The trade deficit is at $85 billion in 2023-24; India’s exports stood at $16.65 billion, while imports were $101.73 billion in the last fiscal.
A reset in India-China ties will also help Beijing, which is struggling with its sputtering economy , which has been battered by a property crisis.
Moreover, if India and China move forward from this situation, it would benefit Beijing. In recent times, India has cosied up to the United States. However, a reset would help drive a wedge between Washington and New Delhi. Smoother relations with China will also leave India in a position straddling geopolitical forces within Asia.
The US has been increasing pressure on China, especially on issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea. However, a reset with New Delhi might change the dynamics. Xi Jinping hopes to weaken the US-led strategy.
It also helps Xi Jinping counter the Quad alliance, comprising India, the US, Australia and Japan. Though Quad is not a military alliance, Beijing views it as the Asian Nato. However, by strengthening ties with India, Xi hopes to weaken the alliance and counterbalance its influence.
Stable ties between the two countries will also have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity. As India’s Ministry of External Affairs in a statement noted, “Stable, predictable and amicable bilateral relations between India and China, as two neighbours and the two largest nations on Earth, will have a positive impact on regional and global peace and prosperity. It will also contribute to a multi-polar Asia and a multi-polar world.”
However, not everyone is optimistic that India-China ties will normalise. Michael Kugelman of Wilson Centre think tank’s South Asia Institute told Al Jazeera that one shouldn’t expect ties to change soon. “The agreement (border pact) is a confidence-building measure, and that’s a good thing for relations that sunk to low levels in recent years. But I don’t think we should see it as the opening salvo of broader efforts to get the relationship in a normalised position.”
With inputs from agencies