PM Modi in Brazil: How wars, climate change, Trump will dominate G20 Summit

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro to attend the all-important G20 Summit, which will be held today (November 18) and tomorrow (November 19). Modi’s visit to Brazil comes after he wrapped up an important and “productive” visit to Nigeria where he held bilateral talks with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and interacted with the Indian community.

Announcing his arrival in the Brazilian city, the Ministry of External Affairs in a post on X wrote, “Prime Minister Narendra Modi lands in the vibrant city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, to attend the G20 Brazil Summit.” Interestingly, Modi was welcomed at the airport with Sanskrit chants.

Modi will join other world leaders such as US President Joe Biden, China’s Xi Jinping and others at the international forum, where differences over wars in West Asia and Ukraine, and implications of Donald Trump’s White House return loom large.

More from Explainers

How ChatGPT is becoming everyone’s BFF and why that’s dangerous This Week in Explainers: How recovering from Gen-Z protests is a Himalayan task for Nepal

Modi at G20

PM Modi’s presence at the G20 Summit in Brazil is significant as India is a member of the G20 Troika, alongside Brazil and South Africa. He will also be looking to build on India’s successful presidency last year during which it mainstreamed “the priorities of the Global South ”. It was also during India’s presidency that the African Union’s permanent membership was secured and a leaders’ declaration was created despite challenges, including deep divisions over the Ukraine conflict.

This G20, PM Modi is expected to focus on the issues of hunger and poverty. It is also likely that he will push for the restructuring of international institutions such as the United Nations Security Council. New Delhi believes that the UN reflects the world of 1945 and must include more permanent members than the present five — USA, Russia, China, Britain and France. India, Brazil, Germany and Japan are all candidates for permanent member seats when the restructuring does happen.

Prime Minister Modi will also reiterate the importance of peace and talks as the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel continues its war against Hamas. Brazil, the host country of the G20, has said that India can play a significant role in putting the conflicts to an end, considering its position and the influence it wields.

Editor’s Picks

1

G20 in Brazil: Why is it crucial in today's changing geopolitics? 2

The Cost of Being Rich: Is a global tax for billionaires coming?

Earlier, Modi in his departure statement said, “This year, Brazil has built upon India’s legacy. I look forward to meaningful discussions in keeping with our vision of ‘ One Earth, One Family, One Future ’. I will also use the opportunity to exchange views on furthering bilateral cooperation with several other leaders.”

On the sidelines of the G20 Summit, PM Modi is expected to meet several leaders, officials said. However, there’s no confirmation as to who will he meet, though there are reports that he is likely to hold a meeting with new UK PM Keir Starmer.

PM Modi, as per some reports, may also have another sit-down with China’s President Xi Jinping — a second in less than a month. The PM and the Chinese president had met in a bilateral format just last month on the sidelines of the Brics summit in the Russian city of Kazan after five years following the recent India-China pact on patrolling along the LAC.

Wars loom large over G20

With the world seeing two wars — Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas — being fought simultaneously, it is natural that the issues will be at the forefront of the G20 Summit too.

While Russian President Vladimir Putin will not be in attendance owing to the International Criminal Court warrant out against him, for Russia’s actions in Ukraine, his representative — the foreign minister will represent Russia in Rio.

“We are negotiating with all the countries on the final declaration’s passages about geopolitics… so that we can reach consensual language on those two issues,” Brazil’s chief diplomatic official for the G20, Mauricio Lyrio, was quoted as telling AFP.

Those conflicts will be “the elephant in the room,” Flavia Loss, international relations specialist at the School of Sociology and Politics of Sao Paulo (FESPSP), told AFP.

Climate change on G20’s mind

Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is expected to use his hosting duties to champion the fight against climate change. Notably, the G20 is occurring at the same time as the COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan.

The Brazilian president had earlier said that he would like to focus on climate change rather than the wars, “Because if not, we will not discuss other things which are more important for people that are not at war, who are poor people and invisible to the world,” he said.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has also called for G20 members, who account for 80 per cent of global emissions, to show “leadership and compromise” to facilitate a deal. A Brazilian diplomatic source told AFP that fast-developing nations like China were refusing pressure from rich countries to join them in funding global climate projects but added that he was hopeful of progress at the summit.

At the last G20 in India, leaders called for a tripling of renewable energy sources by the end of the decade, but without explicitly calling for an end to the use of fossil fuels.

Biden’s swansong

This G20 summit will also be US President Joe Biden’s final world international meet before Donald Trump assumes presidency after winning the US presidential election on November 5. Experts note that Biden will face a tough task at G20: reassuring world leaders that America remains committed to staying engaged in the world as his successor champions a go-it-alone approach.

‘Biden will want to convey the message that America’s engagement with the world, American values, American interests are enduring,” Evan Medeiros of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, who led Asia policy in the Obama administration, told NPR.

“But obviously that’s going to be exceptionally difficult to do because the rest of the world is now going to be looking to hedge the United States — in other words, reduce involvement — because America is unreliable and a risky partner,” Medeiros said.

A tax on billionaires

At this G20, Brazilian President Lula will try to progress plans to tax the world’s richest billionaires. Devised by French economist Gabriel Zucman, the plan would introduce an annual tax of two per cent on the total net worth of extremely wealthy individuals — not just their annual income. This would include real estate assets, corporate shareholdings and other investments. Zucman has estimated that the top 0.01 per cent of the population pay an effective tax rate of just 0.3 per cent of their wealth.

The tax collected could then be used to tackle growing global inequalities, especially among heavily indebted low-income countries, including many in Africa.

However, Lula may find it difficult to push this proposal through, as the rise of national populism in many G20 countries is increasing scrutiny about how public money is spent, with many believing that international aid and development funds could be better deployed at home.

“Most of the G20 countries are having a hard time balancing their budgets,” Maria Antonieta Del Tedesco Lins, an economist and associate professor at the University of Sao Paulo, told DW. “While extra taxes would help, it’s very hard to juggle national pressures with new international or multilateral obligations.”

With inputs from agencies