Pakistan elections: Who are the key players? What’s at stake?

Pakistan is all set to go to polls on 8 February. The South Asian nation of nearly 250 million people will vote next week to elect the national government and members of the National Assembly, Pakistan’s lower house of Parliament.

While Nawaz Sharif is expected to return as Pakistan’s PM, his main rival Imran Khan is out of race and behind bars on corruption charges. The general elections come amid a crackdown on Khan’s party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and allegations of military interference.

According to Radio Pakistan, more than 120 million registered voters will cast their franchise to elect members to the national and provincial assemblies. A total of 5,121 candidates are in the fray, including 4,807 men, 312 women and two transgender persons, for the parliamentary election.

Who are the key players in Pakistan elections? What’s at stake? Let’s take a closer look.

Key players in Pakistan elections

Nawaz Sharif is hoping to return to office for the fourth term. While he has served as Pakistan’s PM thrice, he has never completed his five-year tenure.

His third stint came to an end in 2017 when Pakistan’s Supreme Court barred him from politics for life over graft charges related to the Panama Papers scandal. In 2019, Sharif left for London seeking medical treatment and stayed there in self-imposed exile before returning to Pakistan just last October.

Sharif’s party Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) formed a coalition government in 2022 led by his brother Shehbaz Sharif after Imran Khan was booted out of office.

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It is widely believed that the 74-year-old politician is favoured by the powerful military as Pakistan’s next prime minister. Since his return last year, corruption charges against Sharif have been dropped by courts and his lifetime ban lifted, paving the way for him to contest elections.

Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan is out of the election race. Despite being in jail, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party leader is still the most popular politician nationally, BBC reported citing a Gallup poll. There are questions about the fairness of elections in the country as many PTI leaders are behind bars or have defected. His party has been stripped of its electoral symbol, the cricket bat, forcing its candidates to run as independents.

Khan’s legal woes also seem unending. He has been disqualified because of his graft convictions. In his fourth conviction on Saturday (3 February), the former PM and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were sent to seven years in prison by a court that ruled that their 2018 marriage violated the law. Earlier this week, Khan and Bibi were sentenced to 14 years in jail for corruption.

Despite all these obstructions, Khan and the PTI enjoy vast popular support across the country.

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari is the chairman of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The party headed by him and his father, Asif Ali Zardari, is vying to return to power for the first time since 2008. PPP was part of the coalition government led by Shehbaz Sharif, with Bilawal serving as Pakistan’s youngest-ever foreign minister.

Analysts believe the 35-year-old will sit in the opposition this time. “Bilawal knows that he is unlikely to be the next prime minister, so he is getting ready for an opposition role after the elections,” Abdul Jabbar Nasir, a Karachi-based election analyst, told Nikkei Asia.

Maryam Nawaz, daughter of Nawaz Sharif, is believed to be the former PM’s heir apparent. According to the Nikkei Asia report, Nawaz is paving the way for her to take over the reins of the party and continue his political legacy. If the PML-N and its allies come to power, she is expected to get a major role in the next government.

Jahangir Tareen, once a close aide of Imran Khan, is fighting the 2024 general elections with his newly-formed Istehkam-i-Pakistan Party (IPP). The 70-year-old sugar baron has promised his party, which comprises mostly PTI leaders after a crackdown on Khan’s party led to defections, has promised to transform Pakistan “into a beacon of progress on the world stage”, as per Dawn.

According to Tahir Malik, a professor of international relations at the National University of Modern Languages (NUML) Islamabad, Tareen will be a “kingmaker by attracting the PTI candidates contesting as independents to form a government," reported Nikkei Asia.

What’s at stake?

Pakistan’s next PM will face several hot-button issues, including a battered economy and security challenges.

The new government will have to ensure to secure financial aid and investments much-needed by the country grappling with economic crises. Reducing soaring inflation and creating jobs would be a tough task in a country marked by political instability.

The crucial elections will also be watched by India, Pakistan’s arch-rival, China and the United States.

With inputs from agencies