Pakistan elections 2024: How the military has bowled a bouncer to Imran Khan

The Pakistan elections are just two days away — it is scheduled for 8 February — but for all it seems the results are already in. And it doesn’t bode well for former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Once considered the blue-eyed boy of the Establishment, namely the Pakistan army, the 71-year-old has fallen from grace drastically, earning its full wrath, which has led to him and his party becoming irrelevant before the national polls. Analysts observe that the tactics being used are no different than those tried and tested in the past. In the run-up to the polls, we take a closer look at just how the Establishment has pushed Imran Khan out of the race and what led to this situation. The cases against Khan Since being removed from power in April 2022 – after a vote of no confidence widely acknowledged to have been orchestrated by the military – a litany of cases have been dumped on the former prime minister. Some say that over 190 cases ranging from rioting to terrorism have been registered against him. In the last week itself, the 71-year-old former Pakistan prime minister has been convicted in three separate cases and handed down lengthy jail terms. The first was the cipher case last Tuesday in which Khan was handed down a 10-year jail sentence on the charges of leaking state secrets. For the unaware, Khan was charged with making public a classified cable – a cipher – sent to Islamabad by Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington in 2022. The news was a blow to Khan, who is already serving a three-year prison term in Rawalpindi in a corruption case. Reacting to the sentence, Khan compared it to a “fixed match.” This is not a trial but a fixed match whose outcome was predetermined by the characters and planners of the London Plan and their seals. That is why I already know the decision of this case,” he wrote on X. [caption id=“attachment_13695152” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A supporter of former Prime Minister Imran Khan pastes a poster of the candidate on the entrance of a house during a door-to-door campaign, ahead of the general elections in Lahore. AFP[/caption] The next day (31 January), Imran Khan was dealt a second blow when he was sentenced to prison for 14 years in the Toshakhana case. Notably, his now ‘illegal wife’ Bushra Bibi was also handed down the same sentence in the case. In the Toshakhana case, it was alleged that Khan “deliberately concealed” details of the gifts he retained from the Toshakhana and their sales. At the time of the sentencing, Khan’s media team was quoted as saying: “Another sad day in our judicial system history, which is being dismantled.” And last Saturday (3 February), a local court sentenced Imran Khan and Bushra Bibi seven years each in a case related to their marriage, which it declared “un-Islamic”. Many observers stated that the timing of the three convictions is significant and an aim to make Khan, who still retains his popularity with the masses, as irrelevant in the elections. Disassembling the PTI Besides incarcerating Imran Khan, Pakistan’s military kingmakers have also taken other steps to ensure that the PTI has little to no chance of contesting the elections. Firstly, through the Election Commission, the authorities have dealt its biggest blow by stripping it of its famous bat symbol. In a country where illiteracy is a huge issue, a party symbol is the main way for people to recognise their candidates. However, with the party being banned from using the cricket bat, most PTI candidates have been forced to run as independents, each with their own specific poll symbol. By removing the poll symbol, analysts say that the military has made the PTI toothless. [caption id=“attachment_13695162” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A poster with a picture of Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan (top) reading “Revenge of oppression with vote” hangs on a tree outside his residence in the Banigala area of Islamabad. Authorities have clamped down heavily on his party members too, making it difficult for them to campaign ahead of the polls. Reuters[/caption] Moreover, as independents, these candidates don’t necessarily have to allay with the PTI after the win. They could align with any other party post the elections. The Pakistan police has also cracked down on PTI leaders and its supporters ahead of the polls. On 1 February, it was reported that 39 PTI workers had been arrested on charges of rioting, attacking a policeman, and ransacking official vehicles. Other senior leaders have also been arrested on various different charges, with Khan’s sister, Aleema Khan, charging that authorities have systematically repressed the party and its members. Off the airwaves In addition to all of this, in March last year, Imran Khan was also pulled off the airwaves, hurting his political chances of campaigning on behalf of his candidates. The Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority (PEMRA) banned his live speeches and reruns, alleging that Khan was “levelling baseless allegations and spreading hate speech… against state institutions and officers” which are “likely to disturb public peace”. However, Khan has made full use of social media and Artificial Intelligence to garner support for his party ahead of the polls. As Sabookh Syed, political analyst in Islamabad, told Nikkei Asia that social media is the last bastion for Khan’s party. “There is no coverage of PTI on TV media and hence they are left with social media to spread their political message.” [caption id=“attachment_13695172” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Supporters and activists of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party shout slogans demanding the release of PTI leader Imran Khan. After being banned on the airwaves, Khan has been using AI and social media extensively to reach out to his supporters. AFP[/caption] But the Pakistan authorities have caught on and are even causing social media disruptions, coinciding with the times that PTI holds an online rally. For instance, in late January, social media users across Pakistan experienced disruptions just as the PTI was holding a “virtual rally.” This was verified by Netblocks, an internet monitoring organisation. A similar disruption was noted on 7 January while the PTI was holding a virtual fundraiser. Imran Khan’s fall out with Pakistan army When Khan first came to power in 2018, he was then considered the golden boy of Pakistan’s powerful military establishment. In fact, at that time it was the former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif who had fallen out of grace with the military and found himself facing charges of corruption and being barred from office. But things have changed drastically for the cricketer-turned-politician. Many believe that the downfall in ties between the Pakistan army and Imran Khan came about when the establishment became frustrated with Khan’s failure to deliver good governance, particularly in Punjab, and may be at how they were being publicly blamed by the Opposition for propping him to power. He then had differences with the Pakistan army on various issues, including Russian invasion of Ukraine. Following Khan’s ouster from power through a vote of no-confidence, Imran Khan became sharper of his criticism of the Pakistan Army. In speeches and on social media, he blamed the military for orchestrating a “Western-backed conspiracy” to topple him. And in June 2022, in a veiled attack against Pakistan’s military, Imran Khan admitted that his government was “weak” and was “blackmailed from everywhere” as the power was not with him and “everyone knows where that is”. [caption id=“attachment_13695182” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] The 9 May 2023 protest carried out by Imran Khan’s supporters changed the dynamics between the PTI and the Pakistan military. File image/Reuters[/caption] He further alleged that that “some elements” in the powerful establishment who indulged in “bad practices” were responsible for his unceremonious ouster from power in April 2022. Perhaps, the worst came during the 9 May riots of last year following his arrest. His supporters did the unthinkable: they stormed the cantonment areas and showed the Pakistan public how the generals enjoyed a life of luxury and wealth. The army, as Pakistan political observers say, hasn’t forgiven Khan for it, and are still making him pay the price for it. With inputs from agencies