 "Pakistan polls: How PTI-backed 'Independents' could be a gamechanger")
Results have slowly begun trickling in for the Pakistani polls. And it looks like ‘Independent’ candidates backed by Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) are running ahead of candidates from Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Sharif, the former prime minister, was widely expected to return to the power after seemingly being backed by the establishment. Imran, meanwhile, is languishing in prison after being convicted in multiple cases. A party must win 133 seats out of 265 in the National Assembly being contested to form the next government. But what is the status of the ‘Independent’ candidates in the polls? And could they be a gamechanger? Let’s take a closer look: PTI candidates take lead Provisional results released by the Election Commission of Pakistan show that thus far ‘Independent’ candidates backed by the PTI have won 29 seats. PTI candidates are running as Independents after they were not allowed to use the party symbol of a cricket bat. Meanwhile, the PML-N and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) have won 27 and 18 seats respectively. PTI leader barrister Gohar Ali Khan won NA-10 in the Buner area of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa with 110,023 votes, according to the ECP. He defeated Awami National Party candidate Abdul Rauf who came second with 30,302 votes.
PTI’s former speaker National Assembly Asad Qaiser also won.
Qaiser has won the NA-19 from Swabi with 115,635 votes, while JUI-F’s Fazal Ali came second with 45,567 votes. PTI-backed candidate Shahid Ahmad Khattak won the NA-38 seat from Karak. PTI-backed candidates Zulfiqar Khan and Yousif Khan have won the NA-34 and NA-36 seats from Nowshera II and Hangu/Orakzai respectively. PTI-backed candidate Mujahid Ali has won the NA-21 seat from Mardan I. PTI-backed candidate Shahrah Khan Tarakai has won the NA-20 seat from Swabi II. [caption id=“attachment_13706272” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Members of polling staff count the votes after the polls closed for parliamentary elections, in Peshawar, Pakistan, 8 February 2024. AP[/caption] Takai, who received 122,965 votes, easily defeated Awami National Party’s Waris Khan who got 47,535 votes. Meanwhile, JUI-F’s Abdur Rahim Khan came third with 19,528 votes. PTI-backed candidate Ali Asghar Khan has won the NA-16 seat from Abbottabad I. PTI-backed candidate Sahibzada Sibghatullah has won the NA-5 seat in Upper Dir with 37,484 votes. PTI-backed candidate Mehboob Shah won the NA-7 seat in Lower Dir with 20,346 votes. PTI-backed candidate Junaid Akbar has won NA-9 in Malakand with 113,513 votes. PTI-backed Muhammad Nawaz Khan wins NA-13 seat from Battagram. PTI-backed candidate Sheikh Waqas Akram has won from Jhang’s NA-109 constituency, while Muhammad Arshad Sahi, also a PTI-affiliated hopeful, won the NA-111 seat from Nankana Sahib. PTI-backed candidate Usman Ali has won the NA-142 seat in Sahiwal II. PTI-backed Independent candidates Saleem Rehman and Suhail Sultan have won NA-3 and NA-4 in Swat respectively. PTI-backed independent candidate Anwar Taj won the NA-24 seat from Charsadda. Syed Shah Ahad Ali Shah, another PTI-backed Independent, beat PTI-Parliamentarians’ Pervez Khattak to win from Nowshera’s NA-33. PTI-backed independent candidate Amjad Ali Khan has won the NA-2 seat in Swat-I. PTI-backed candidate Muhammad Atif has won NA-22 in Mardan II. PTI-backed candidate Fazal Muhammad Khan has won NA-25 Charsadda II. PTI-backed candidate Waseem Qadir clinched victory in NA-121 Lahore V. PTI-backed candidate Fazal Khan also won NA-25 Charsadda. PTI-backed independent candidates Muhammad Abdul Salam and Sultan Room have won their seats from PK-58 Mardan and PK-9 Swat. The Election Commission of Pakistan announced the winners of two seats for the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial Assembly. The commission said that Independent candidate Samiullah Khan won 18,888 votes, while Independent candidate Fazal Hakeem Khan took 25,330 votes. Independent candidate Ali Shah won Swat’s PK-4 constituency. PTI-backed candidate Sher Ali Afridi won in Peshawar’s PK-77 constituency. PTI-affiliated candidate Shandana Gulzar won in Peshawar’s NA-30. PTI-backed Independent candidate Riaz Khan has won Buner’s PK-25 constituency. PTI-backed independent Hameedur Rahman prevailed in Bajaur’s PK-19 constituency. PTI-backed candidate Ali Khan Jadoon took the NA 17 Abbottabad seat. PTI-backed independent Zubair Khan emerged triumphant in PK-34 Battagram. PTI-backed candidate Saleem Rehman was victorious in Swat’s NA-3. PTI-backed Independent candidate Iftikharullah Jan won in PK-64 Charsadda III. Meanwhile, Rehana Dar claimed the returning officer in her constituency was not letting her enter the polling station. PTI-backed candidate Basharat Raja in Rawalpindi’s NA-55 constituency claimed a difference between Form 45 and Form 47 results. He claimed he won by a margin of 50,000 seats and that his opponent “did not win from any polling station in the entire constituency”. Khan in a statement also claimed that the PTI has won over 150 National Assembly seats and is in a position to form governments in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces. He urged the ECP to announce all results without any further delay. Meanwhile, ex-PTI leader and defence minister Pervaiz Khattak lost his seat. What about PML-N and PPP? For the PML-N, Sharif defeated PTI-backed Independent Dr Yasmin Rashid by a massive margin of 56,000 votes.
Sharif received 171,024 votes compared to Rashid’s 115,043 votes.
Sharif’s younger brother and ex-premier Shehbaz Sharif also won. Sharif’s son Hamza Shehbaz won NA-118 in Lahore-II with 105,960 votes. Hamza defeated Aliya Hamza Malik a PTI-backed Independent candidate, by 5,000 votes. Sharif’s daughter Maryam Nawaz emerged victorious in the NA-119 seat in Lahore. [caption id=“attachment_13701182” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Former Pakistan prime minister Nawaz Sharif was the favourite to win the polls.[/caption] Maryam, who received 83,855 votes, defeated PTI-backed Shehzad Farooq who got 68,376 votes.
All four family members scored victories from Lahore, their home and party’s stronghold.
Meanwhile, PPP leader and former president Asif Ali Zardari has won the NA-207 seat from Shaheed Benazirabad with 146,989 votes. Zardari defeated PTI-backed Independent candidate Sardar Sher Muhammad Rind Baloch, who got 51,916 votes. Zardari’s son and PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto has won the NA-196 seat in Qamber Shahdadtkot-I with 85,370 votes. Could this be a gamechanger? NDTV quoted PTI’s chief organiser Omar Ayub Khan as saying that Independent candidates could form their own government if they get a two-thirds majority.
“Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf-backed independent candidates have the ability to form the next federal government with a two-thirds majority,” he said in a video statement released to media.
The outlet said Independents can also ally with one of the other parties to form a coalition regime.
The Economic Times noted that a new government could also challenge Imran’s jail terms and void his ban on holding office and take part in future polls.
PML-N leader Ishaq Dar, an aide to Sharif, is perhaps already considering a unity government. Dar said his party may form a coalition government with Independents, as per Geo TV.
“I am confident that we will form a government,” Dar said.
He added that his party would step aside if any clear winner emerged.
Experts say this has thrown up a surprise.
“There was a sense of certainty about the outcome,” Sarah Khan, an assistant professor of political science at YaleUniversity, told AFP. “That sense of certainty got upset very early on,” she added. “It’s definitely not the foregone conclusion that anybody thought it might be.” Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington, told AFP the delay “suggests that the powers that be are trying to create an environment that allows them to more easily be involved in the electoral process”.
“Vote tampering and rigging fears are rife, and for good reason,” he said more bluntly on X.
Analysts have also predicted there may be no clear winner, adding to the woes of a country struggling to recover from an economic crisis while it grapples with rising militant violence in a deeply polarised political environment.
“A timely announcement of the results, leading to a smooth formation of a new government will reduce policy and political uncertainty,” Moody’s Investors Service said. “This is crucial for the country that is facing very challenging macroeconomic conditions.” More than 650,000 army, paramilitary and police personnel were deployed to provide security on Thursday. [caption id=“attachment_13708752” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan, who is currently languishing in jail, could receive a reprieve if candidates backed by the PTI prevail. AP[/caption] There were a total of 51 attacks nationwide, the army said, killing a dozen people including 10 security force members — fewer than in 2018, when dozens were killed. Thursday’s election had a similar air to that poll, but with the tables turned. Then, it was Sharif who was disqualified from running because of a string of convictions for graft, while Khan swept to power with the backing of the military, as well as genuine support. The history of Pakistan’s elections is checkered with allegations of rigging but also favouritism, said Bilal Gilani, executive director of polling group Gallup Pakistan. “It’s a managed democracy that the military runs,” he said. ‘Results delayed to rig outcome’ PTI claimed that it won the elections while alleging that results were being delayed to rig the outcome. In a statement on X from the PTI official handle, the party stated that it won more than 150 NA seats out of 265 open for contest as per the data received in Form 45s, which are the primary source of election results at the lowest level and show the votes for each candidate at each polling station. “Copies of these forms have been collected by PTI candidates’ polling agents, which show them winning by a large majority. According to independent reports, PTI has won well over 150 National Assembly seats & is in a solid position to form government in Federal, Punjab & KP (Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa), with a clear majority,” it stated. “However, manipulation of the results in the late hours of the night is an utter disgrace & a brazen theft of the nation’s mandate. The people of Pakistan vehemently reject the rigged results. The world is watching,” it asserted.
In another statement, PTI alleged that its mandate was being stolen.
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View All“Let the world know that the clear and overwhelming mandate of the people of Pakistan is being stolen. Despite unprecedented pre-poll rigging & oppression, there was a record, massive turnout on polling day,” it stated The party said that every independent candidate backed by it was winning by a landslide. It also said that Returning Officers are now manipulating the results using Form 47, which is a summary of Form 45 from each polling station. “Furthermore, there are reports of the polling agents getting abducted & forced to sign fake Form 45s,” it said. It also referred to unspecified reports to claim that “PTI nominated candidates (were) losing suddenly in various constituencies now, after they had already won by a clear majority”. In another statement, the party asked PML-N leader Sharif, who was the favourite to win as he was backed by the powerful Army, to concede defeat. “Show some grace @NawazSharifMNS, accept the defeat! The people of Pakistan will never accept you. This is a golden opportunity to regain some credibility as a Democrat. Daylight robbery is going to be rejected massively by Pakistan!” it said in a statement on X. The ECP has remained mum despite the PTI’s claims. PML-N stakes claim to single-largest party However, the PML-N has staked its claim to victory. Party leader Dar said, “Based on data compiled in PMLN Election Cell and results already in the public domain, PMLN has emerged as the single largest political party in the National Assembly and a clear majority party in Punjab Assembly.” He also said that “premature and biased speculations” must be avoided as the country awaits the official complete results from ECP. [caption id=“attachment_13701642” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A party must win 133 seats out of 265 in the National Assembly being contested to form the next government. AP[/caption] The caretaker interior ministry has said that it had reviewed the media and the public’s concerns about the late processing of the results and attributed it to “lack of communication, which was the outcome of mobile services suspension taken to ensure a peaceful election process.” It said the situation was now satisfactory and results would be announced accordingly.
The long delay in the announcement of results by the ECP created a lot of confusion.
Karachi, the biggest city in Pakistan, witnessed the most confusion where the Muttahida Qaumi Movement claimed it had already won 18 out of the 22 National Assembly seats from the city but this is yet to be verified. Their rival parties the Jamaat-e-Islami and PPP both negated the MQM claim. The excruciating delay in announcing the results pushed parties to the edge, with allegations of fraud being hurled along with demands for early results. PML-N leader Maryam Aurangzeb said that the results are changing as they come in, stressing that preliminary results cannot be relied upon to say who’s winning from a said constituency. “We were in the lead [when] suddenly the results stopped coming in,” she said while calling on the ECP to announce the results as soon as possible. Separately, the estranged PML-N leader and ex-premier Shahid Khaqan Abbasi said that the “people of Pakistan have spoken” and warned that any attempt to “manipulate their mandate will result in unsustainable chaos”. “The heat of the electoral process has passed; it is time to allow the country to heal…The political leadership — Mian Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, Imran Khan, Maulana Fazlur Rehman and others — must rise above petty politics and work together to confront the immense challenges our country is facing; they need to recognise that history is not kind to selfish politicians,” he urged. The cellphone and internet services suspended before elections were gradually restored during the night. In total 266 National Assembly seats were up for grabs in Thursday’s election out of 336, but polling was postponed on at least one seat after a candidate was killed in a gun attack in Bajaur. Another 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minorities and are allotted to the winning parties based on proportional representation. Another 593 seats of the four provincial assemblies, out of a total 749, were also open for contest but the ECP delayed polls on at least three seats, two in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and one in Punjab, after two candidates died and one was killed. With inputs from agencies
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