Is Naveen Patnaik’s BJD set to return to the BJP-led NDA fold after 15 years?

A formal alliance between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Odisha’s ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD) is likely on the cards. Top leaders of both parties went into a huddle on Wednesday (6 March) to chart the course of a possible coalition.

If a deal is reached, the BJD led by Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik will return to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) fold after 15 years. The speculations about a coalition between the two rivals in Odisha gathered momentum after the BJD backed Union minister Ashwini Vaishnaw to get him elected to the Rajya Sabha in the recent elections.

What happened in the meetings on Wednesday? Why did BJD leave the BJP-led NDA bloc? How will the alliance help both parties ahead of crucial polls this year? Let’s take a closer look.

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BJD, BJP leaders hold separate meetings

Senior BJD leaders flocked to Naveen Niwas, the residence of Odisha CM Patnaik in Bhubaneswar, to deliberate on the alliance. The chief minister reportedly took feedback from his party’s leaders on joining the NDA in a meeting that lasted for three and a half hours.

“In the discussions, it was resolved that since by 2036, Odisha will complete 100 years of its statehood and the BJD and the Chief Minister have major milestones to be achieved by this time, therefore the BJD will do everything towards this in the greater interests of people of Odisha and the State,” BJD vice-president Debi Prasad Mishra in a statement, as per The Hindu.

VIDEO | Here's what Biju Janata Dal vice president Debi Prasad said on the possibility of his party's alliance with BJP in Odisha.

"BJD, as a regional party under the leadership of Naveen Patnaik, is propelling Odisha to new heights. Therefore, for the betterment of the people… pic.twitter.com/QOr5UjpJAg

— Press Trust of India (@PTI_News) March 6, 2024

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BJP national president JP Nadda met the saffron party leaders from Odisha at the party headquarters in Delhi.

Former Union tribal affairs minister Jual Oram, who attended the meeting, said the Odisha BJP unit suggested fighting the elections alone. However, the central leadership would decide whether to forge an alliance or not.

“Since the BJP is a national political party, the final decision lies with the central leadership. Whatever decision the central leadership takes, it will be binding for all. There were discussions about the alliance in the meeting,” he was quoted as saying by Indian Express.

BJD leader VK Pandian, who is believed to be a close aide of CM Patnaik, also convened multiple meetings with the BJP central leaders, reported Indian Express.

The buzz about a likely alliance between the two parties has been going on for some time. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has visited Odisha twice since February. Addressing public gatherings both times, he did not attack the Odisha government even though the BJP has emerged as the BJD’s prime opponent in the state in recent years.

Instead, the PM referred to the Odisha CM as his “mitra (friend).” In his recent visit to the state this week, Modi called Patnaik a “Lokpriya (popular)” CM and hinted that the BJD will play a key role in the NDA’s target of 400 seats in the summer’s Lok Sabha polls.

The Odisha CM also lauded Modi, saying, “The Prime Minister has set a new direction for India. He is taking India on an accelerated drive to make it an economic powerhouse. India is now the fifth largest economy marching forward to be the number three in a few years,” The Hindu reported.

When BJD tied up with BJP 15 years ago

Formed in 1997, the BJD forged an alliance with the BJP the next year. The two parties fought their first Lok Sabha polls together in 1998, winning 16 out of 21 seats in Odisha and securing 48.7 per cent combined vote share.

In the 1999 Lok Sabha polls, the BJD-BJP alliance scripted a thumping victory in Odisha bagging 19 seats, with a vote share of 57.6 per cent.

The BJP and the BJD fought the Odisha Assembly elections together for the first time in 2000, with Naveen Patnaik becoming the CM for the first time. They won 106 out of 147 seats with a 47.6 per cent vote share. Out of the 84 contested seats, Patnaik’s party bagged 68, while the BJP clinched a victory on 38 out of 63 allocated seats.

The alliance’s success continued in 2004. In the Lok Sabha polls, they won 18 out of Odisha’s 21 seats, despite the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coming to power at the Centre.

In the 2004 Assembly polls held simultaneously, the combine secured 93 seats and a 44.5 per cent vote share. With the same seat-sharing formula, the BJD won 61 seats and the BJP got 32.

The alliance fell apart following the 2008 anti-Christian riots in Odisha that left 38 dead. The BJD severed ties with the BJP just ahead of the 2009 elections.

The BJP contested solo on 145 out of 147 Assembly seats in 2009 but won just six with a 15.5 per cent vote share. It could not gain even a single Lok Sabha seat from Odisha that year.

On the other hand, the BJD won 103 of the 129 contested seats, securing 38.9 per cent of the votes in the 2009 Assembly elections. It won 14 seats in the Lok Sabha polls with a vote share of 37.2 per cent.

The BJD continued to maintain its sway in Odisha even when the Modi wave took over the country in 2014. Patnaik’s party won 20 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha, with a 44.8 per cent vote share. The BJP could manage to secure the remaining seat, with a 21.9 per cent vote share.

In 2019, the BJP’s fortunes improved in Odisha, with the party increasing its tally in both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls. The saffron party won eight seats in the Lok Sabha polls, while the BJD’s tally fell to 12. One seat was taken by Congress.

In the Assembly polls, the BJP emerged as the main Opposition party to the BJD, winning 23 seats and 32.8 per cent vote share. Patnaik became the Odisha CM for a record fifth time with his party claiming victory in 113 seats.

How the alliance benefits both parties 

The BJP and the BJD have maintained cozy ties since 2019. Patnaik’s party has supported the NDA at the Centre in crucial issues, including the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, GST, demonetisation, Delhi services bill, and so on.

The alliance favours both parties. While PM Modi is aiming to return for a third straight term at the Centre, Patnaik wants to consolidate his position as the longest-serving CM in India’s history, noted The Hindu.

As per reports, the tie-up between the two parties could be announced on Thursday (7 March). According to Indian Express sources, the BJP could fight more seats in the Lok Sabha, while the BJD could contest in more than 100 of the total 147 Assembly seats.

The alliance would be a big boost for the BJP, which is seeking to return to power at the Centre in the upcoming Lok Sabha polls. The party aims to win 370 seats in the lower house on its own and has set a target of 400-plus for the NDA.

“The alliance will be a win-win for both parties as the BJP is more concerned about returning to power at the Centre with a record margin. With the BJD seeking a sixth straight term in Odisha, a tie-up with the BJP, the main opposition party, will also ensure it a smooth victory,” a senior BJD leader told Indian Express.

The alliance would also help the BJP raise NDA’s tally in the Rajya Sabha where the bloc does not enjoy a majority yet. The BJD has nine MPs in the Upper House.

“As the BJP has already established its political and electoral dominance in the Hindi heartland states, the leadership wants to see the party grow in the eastern and southern states too. This would be one major leap in its journey towards it,” a senior party leader was quoted as saying by Indian Express.

With inputs from agencies