 "Jars of Nutella spread produced by Italian confectionary maker Ferrero are displayed at a supermarket's shelf in Subang Jaya, Malaysia, April 14, 2022. File Image/Reuters")
The world’s appetite for Nutella may soon come with a heavier price tag — and the reason lies in Turkey’s hazelnut-growing heartland.
A rare spring frost in April has damaged a significant portion of the country’s hazelnut crop.
Given Turkey’s dominance in hazelnut production and its importance to Ferrero, the Italian confectionery giant that manufactures Nutella and Ferrero Rocher, price increases on these products now appear almost inevitable.
Hazelnut prices soar in Turkey
In April, Turkey experienced what its agriculture minister described as “one of the largest agricultural frost events in our history since the major agricultural frost event in 2014.”
The frost hit during a sensitive phase in the agricultural cycle, severely affecting hazelnut orchards, particularly in high-altitude areas.
According to Bloomberg, wholesale prices for Turkish hazelnuts have surged by approximately 30 per cent since the frost occurred. Data from agricultural intelligence company Expana suggests this trend may persist as the supply deficit continues.
Turkey’s hazelnut exporters have revised this year’s expected yield downward by about 20 per cent, with projections now sitting at 609,000 tons for the August–September harvest.
Cem Senocak, president of the National Hazelnut Council, confirmed that some farmers in mountainous zones have suffered near-total losses, stating they had lost between 50 per cent to 100 per cent of their crops, reported Bloomberg.
Ferrero’s global sourcing vs Turkey’s market weight
While Turkey’s contribution to the world’s hazelnut supply is unmatched — accounting for roughly 65 per cent of global output — the ripple effects of reduced harvests stretch far beyond its borders.
The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council, a leading body in the sector, noted that disruptions in Turkey’s supply and pricing structure affect the entire global market.
Smaller suppliers in countries like Italy, Chile and the United States offer some relief, but their volumes are insufficient to replace Turkey’s shortfall.
This is particularly concerning for Ferrero SpA, which depends on Turkey for about 25 per cent of its hazelnut needs, reported Bloomberg_._
The company, which produces millions of Nutella jars annually, also uses hazelnuts in other confections such as Ferrero Rocher chocolates. In a public statement, Ferrero acknowledged that “weather events… can have an impact” on Turkish hazelnut availability.
However, it reassured stakeholders that supply disruptions were unlikely in the short term due to diversified sourcing from other producing countries.
Despite this assurance, the fundamental issue remains: hazelnuts constitute a key ingredient in Nutella, making up roughly 13 per cent of its content, and any sustained increase in raw material costs will eventually affect production economics.
Was climate change behind Turkey’s frost?
Although no single weather event can be definitively attributed to climate change, experts are warning that the frequency and severity of such events are becoming more common as global temperatures rise.
A 2021 letter published in the scientific journal Nature explained that “both the frequency and the severity of damage due to [late spring frost] may be amplified by the climate crisis.”
In Turkey, agricultural professionals have echoed this concern. The head of the Turkish Agricultural Engineers Association explained that increasingly warmer winters are causing fruit-bearing trees to awaken prematurely from dormancy.
“In recent years, especially due to climate change, temperatures have been high in the winter months and fruit trees have been waking up early,” he said, as reported by Turkish media.
“Therefore, early spring frosts, which we did not talk about much in previous years, have now started to pose a major risk for fruit growing.”
The consequences extend beyond hazelnuts. From olive oil and cocoa to coffee, staple and luxury food commodities across the globe have been disrupted by unusual weather.
Heatwaves in southern Europe have damaged olive groves, and severe droughts in Brazil have disrupted multiple harvests, underscoring a broader fragility in the global food chain.
What this means for Turkey’s hazelnut farmers
The hazelnut industry supports the livelihoods of around 450,000 families, most of whom are based in the northern Black Sea region — a stronghold of political support for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
Traditionally, the Turkish government — through the state grain board — announces a fixed purchasing price for hazelnuts each season.
This price plays a pivotal role in rural voting behaviour, and there have been instances where dissatisfaction with these rates has translated into lost electoral support.
With this year’s reduced yields, expectations for favourable government compensation are running high.
Turkey’s central bank, in its latest inflation outlook, has warned that the crop failure could contribute to further food price inflation.
The country is already battling a 35 per cent inflation rate, and additional price pressures on a critical export commodity like hazelnuts may further complicate fiscal stabilization efforts.
Investors eye opportunity
The disruption in hazelnut supply is not going unnoticed in the financial world. Finnish asset management firm Evli recently added Turkish hazelnut processor Balsu Gida Sanayi ve Ticaret AS to its Emerging Frontier fund, reported Bloomberg.
The firm anticipates that the wholesale price of hazelnuts could multiply significantly over the coming year.
Evli’s investment advisers, Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev, wrote in a recent blog post: “There simply is no place to get these missing hazelnuts from at scale until the next year’s harvest in Turkey in August 2026.”
Their outlook is based on data modeling the impacts of previous frost events and an uptick in pest infestations affecting hazelnut groves.
If their prediction holds, consumers and manufacturers alike will face heightened costs throughout 2025 and into 2026, with few short-term alternatives to offset the pressure.
What this means for Nutella fans worldwide
While Ferrero has attempted to reassure the public with statements about diversified sourcing, it is clear that Turkey’s outsized role in hazelnut production makes price volatility hard to avoid.
Given the product’s popularity — with Nutella once reaching 30 million fans on Facebook and maintaining its place in homes around the world for nearly eight decades — any rise in price is likely to be felt widely.
The product has long held cultural and culinary significance, particularly in countries like the United States, where it is a common fixture on breakfast tables and in lunchboxes.
As of now, there is no immediate shortage on store shelves. However, the cost to produce Nutella is rising, and unless market conditions stabilise, that increase will eventually be passed on to consumers.
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With inputs from agencies