New face of Islamabad's military progress: Chinese planes with Pakistani nukes?

Pakistan appears to be arming (or at least testing out) its nuclear-capable Ra’ad missiles on the JF-17 jets, which are jointly developed by Pakistan and China.

The development comes after years of efforts to phase out Pakistan Air Force’s aging Mirage fighter aircraft from their nuclear striker role. In the context of the quickening arms race in Asia, this is also likely to be a cause of concern for India.

We take an in-depth look at all of this.

Replacing the aging Mirage III/Vs

For years, regional and global media outlets have reported on Pakistan’s intent to incorporate the dual-capable Ra’ad air-launched cruise missile (ALCM) onto the JF-17 jets. Islamabad appeared eager to do this in order to replacing the aging Mirage III/Vs in their nuclear strike role.

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Despite being over half a century old, Pakistan was still repairing and upgrading many of the Mirage planes from its fleet. That was largely the courtesy of budget constraints.

With the induction of the Sino-Pakistani JF-17, that situation was expected to change. However, whether the JF-17s would indeed replace the Mirage aircraft remained unclear. Until March 2023, that is.

In March 2023, an aviation photographer who goes by @RanaSuhaibphoto on X, captured an image that partially dispelled the uncertainty around the integration of nuclear capable missiles with the JF-17 platform.

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JF-17 THUNDER BLOCK-II with Taimoor ALCM missile.
Remember, Taimoor Missile can also be used with J-10CE.
.
.#PAF #PakistanAirForce #aviation #weapons #Pakistan #ranasuhaib #SnappersCrew pic.twitter.com/1fpMWHBiCM

— Rana Suhaib | Pakistan (@RanaSuhaibphoto) March 19, 2023

This photograph, taken during the rehearsals for the 2023 Pakistan Day Parade, seemed to show a JF-17 jet carrying a Ra’ad missile- a subsonic, standoff ALCM. This visual evidence aligned with previous reports and suggests that Pakistan is actively testing or even implementing the transition from Mirage III/Vs to JF-17s for their nuclear missions.

Still, there was no confirmation if the missile indeed was the nuclear capable Ra’ad.

The evidence: Nuclear-capable missiles on JF-17

Now, the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) has provided further clarity. They addressed this image of a JF-17 Thunder Block II jet equipped with what appeared to be a Ra’ad ALCM.

FAS compared this configuration to previous versions of the Ra’ad-I and Ra’ad-II missiles showcased in past Pakistan Day Parades (2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, and 2024). They observed that the fin arrangements of the missile on the JF-17 resembled the ‘twin-tail’ configuration of the Ra’ad-I, rather than the newer ‘x-shaped’ tail of the Ra’ad-II. Given that the older Ra’ad-II design is considered outdated, it is likely that Pakistan has made significant progress in equipping its JF-17s with Ra’ad-I missiles, possibly supplementing or replacing the Mirage III/Vs in the nuclear strike role.

Significance of this confirmation

This photo evidence suggests that the Pakistani military is on the path to make a significant strategic enhancement to its air force. The full integration, which may not be too far now, means that Islamabad will see its nuclear deterrence boosted.

This is also a reminder of the deepening defence cooperation between Pakistan and China. The JF-17, developed jointly by Pakistan Aeronautical Complex and China’s Chengdu Aircraft Industry Corp, is poised to take over the nuclear strike duties from the aging Mirage III and V aircraft. With over 130 operational JF-17s, Pakistan is on a path to modernising its air force with more advanced and versatile aircraft.

Broader regional context and implications for India

In Asia, there is an ongoing and deepening nuclear arms competition. The top players in the southern region of the continent are India, China, and Pakistan.

Pakistan is actively pursuing capabilities such as Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) with its Ababeel missile, while India is similarly advancing its MIRV technology for its Agni-P and Agni-5 missiles. China has already deployed MIRVs on several of its DF-5B and DF-41 ICBMs.

Additionally, Pakistan is developing other short-range, lower-yield nuclear-capable systems like the NASR (Hatf-9) ballistic missile, aimed at countering conventional military threats from India below the strategic nuclear level. These advancements, coupled with heightened regional tensions, raise concerns about an accelerated arms race and the potential for escalation in a conflict between India and Pakistan.

Islamabad currently holds 170 nuclear warheads as of 2024, and its nuclear warheads are stored separately from its missiles, assembling them only when necessary. This means that even if JF-17 jets are equipped with Ra’ad missiles, they are unlikely to carry nuclear warheads during patrols.

Pakistan’s nuclear posture remains focused on countering India’s conventional and nuclear capabilities. Unlike India, which has declared a No First Use policy, Pakistan emphasizes smaller, tactical nuclear weapons to counter India’s superior conventional forces. Pakistan’s warhead designs primarily use highly enriched uranium (HEU), produced at facilities in Kahuta and Gadwal, Punjab.