How Myanmar’s conscription law could trigger mass exodus of youth

Myanmar’s military junta has activated mandatory military service, triggering a backlash in the country, especially among youth. While the conscription law was originally brought in 2010 under previous military regime, it was not enacted until now.

The conscription law has led to concerns of a mass exodus in the conflict-ridden country. Myanmar has been in turmoil since the military-led coup in 2021.

What is the mandatory conscription law? Why is the youth in Myanmar worried? What are other concerns triggered by the law? Let’s understand in detail.

Myanmar’s conscription law

The conscription order, known as the People’s Military Service Law, states that all men aged between 18 and 35 and all women in the 18-27 age group have to serve up to two years in the military.

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For some vocations such as doctors and engineers, the upper age limit for men is 45 and for women is 35 with the term of service being three years, as per CNA.

The service term can be extended to five years during a state of emergency. Evading conscription is punishable by three to five years in jail and a fine, reported CNN.

Those with a medical reason, civil servants, students and carers have been granted temporary deferments. Members of religious orders are exempt.

According to VOA, Myanmar’s military said the conscription was necessary amid the conflict with rebel groups. Ethnic armed groups have seized hundreds of strategic border towns, key military positions, and important trade routes since launching coordinated attacks last October in the Southeast Asian country.

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Major General Zaw Min Tun, spokesperson for the Myanmar junta, reportedly said that at least 13 million men and women are eligible for military service. Mynamar ’s population was reported at 55 million in 2021.

He said although the military government wants to recruit 60,000 people every year, it cannot “call up more than 50,000 per year” due to budget constraints, VOA reported.

The junta spokesman said each recruitment batch would include 5,000 conscripts, with the first group being called up in mid-April after Myanmar’s new year holiday – Thingyan.

He said the implementation of conscription law is intended for young people to “understand the responsibility of national defence.”

After public backlash, the military government on Tuesday (20 February) exempted women from mandatory military service for now, with Zaw Min Tun saying: “At present, there are no intentions to include women in the conscript pool”, reported Nikkei Asia.

Will youths leave Myanmar?

Youths are already looking to flee Myanmar after the military’s announcement to enact the conscription law.

As per CNN, footage shared on social media showed people standing in long queues outside the Thai Embassy in Myanmar’s biggest city Yangon to get visas.

The French news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported that over 1,000 people lined up outside the Thai embassy in Yangon last week.

On Monday, two women were killed in a stampede outside a passport office in Mandalay.

Speaking to CNN, youth in Myanmar expressed fear that recruits would be sent to the frontlines without proper training. “People know for sure that no matter what is written in the conscription law, they will have to go to the front lines. That is one thing that every person in the country is sure of,” Kyaw Naing, 28, a teacher from Yangon region who used a pseudonym, said.

Neighbouring Thailand could be the choice for those seeking to escape the junta’s military service law.

“This law is impossible to accept. There are proper procedures for military conscription. But in this case, we can just be arrested on the street and forced to join,” a 27-year-old man living in Yangon was quoted as saying by VOA.

“We have no choice but to leave; it’s extremely frustrating,” he said when asked about his plans if he fails to comply with the military conscription.

Maung Nyein, a 32-year-old resident of Yangon, told CNN he is afraid of being forced to fight and kill his compatriots. “In other countries, this law is to train you in case of another country’s invasion, but here there is civil war going on. This is to force you to kill each other.”

Miemie Winn Byrd, a former US Army lieutenant colonel and Myanmar-US military relations expert, told VOA that the military conscription will trigger a “mass exodus” in Myanmar.
“You’re going to see a mass exodus of young people, especially those who can afford to leave. So, then you have a brain drain. A lot of the businesses and other groups are not going to have enough workers or qualified workers,” she stated.

Can the law be misused?

Analysts say the conscription law could force young people to fight their own people and might be misused to justify human rights abuses.

Khin Ohmar, founder and chairperson of Progressive Voices, a Myanmar human rights research and advocacy organisation, told CNN the law will “provide the junta legal cover for abusive forced recruitment practices — grabbing young men and women, especially the disenfranchised and impoverished including minors, from bus stops and factories in the cities.”

The possible mass exodus could also fuel instability in the region as Myanmarese flee to neighbouring countries. There are also concerns that the law can lead to corruption, with military officers accepting bribes from wealthy families wanting their children to evade conscription.

“Middle-class families have been selling their properties so that they can send their kids abroad and evade this conscription law,” Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security think-tank’s executive director Min Zaw Oo was quoted as saying by CNA.

Some experts also say that conscription is a “desperate” effort by the military to ramp up troops hit by casualties, desertions and defections.

“While wounded and increasingly desperate, the Myanmar military junta remains extremely dangerous. Troop losses and recruitment challenges have become existential threats for the junta, which faces vigorous attacks on frontlines all across the country. As the junta forces young men and women into the military ranks, it has doubled down on its attacks on civilians using stockpiles of powerful weapons,” Tom Andrews, United Nations Special Rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, was quoted as saying by CNN.

With inputs from agencies