 "Moscow concert hall shooting: Why would Islamic State target Russia?")
Russia witnessed its deadliest attack in years over the weekend. As many as 137 people were killed and over 180 others injured after four khaki-clad men armed with automatic weapons opened fire at the auditorium in Crocus City Hall in Moscow on Friday (22 March) night, leading to a stampede.
An affiliate of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) took responsibility for the brutal attack, a claim that the United States has confirmed. However, Moscow expressed doubts on Monday (25 March) about the US’ assertion. Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, questioned the claim that Islamic State was behind the attack, saying that Washington was spreading a version of the “bogeyman” of the militant group to cover its “wards” in Ukraine, according to Reuters.
On Saturday, Russian president Vladimir Putin tried to blame Ukraine for the “bloody, barbaric terrorist act.” However, Kyiv has denied any involvement.
According to The Conversation, the modus operandi of the Moscow assault is in line with previous attacks by the Islamic State.
But, why would Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K), a branch of the Islamic State, target Moscow? Let’s take a closer look.
ISIS-K claims responsibility for Moscow attack
Following the Friday attack, Islamic State’s Amaq news agency in a statement on Telegram said its fighters struck on the outskirts of Moscow.
As per the statement, they killed and wounded hundreds, “causing great destruction to the place before they withdrew to their bases safely”, reported ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation).
Earlier this month, the US had warned that ISIS-K “extremists” had planned to target Moscow. However, Russia had rejected the warnings, as per The Conversation.
What could be ISIS-K’s motive?
Impact Shorts
View AllISIS-K has long declared its intent to target Russia, as per The Conversation article. The militant group, which emerged in eastern Afghanistan in late 2014, had claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing at the Russian embassy in Kabul in September 2022, killing at least six.
“ISIS-K has been fixated on Russia for the past two years, frequently criticising Putin in its propaganda,” Colin Clarke, with the Soufan Center, an independent foreign policy research centre, told ABC.
ISIS-K opposes Moscow over its military occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s and its alleged crackdowns on Muslim communities in Russia, The Conversation article noted.
Speaking to ABC, Michael Kugelman of the Washington-based Wilson Center said ISIS-K “sees Russia as being complicit in activities that regularly oppress Muslims”.
Putin’s intervention in the Syrian civil war in 2015 supporting President Bashar al-Assad also irked the Islamic State. Putin had sent Russian troops to back al-Assad’s regime and fortify Russian influence in the region, much to the chagrin of ISIS.
The Islamic State, which had seized large parts of Syria and Iraq by 2013 after the war began in 2011, lost 95 per cent of its territory by the end of 2017, reported ABC.
Russia was a target of the Islamic State multiple times from 2016–19. Its other attacks were foiled from 2021–23.
Several ISIS-K militants arrested in Europe, including in Russia, over the past two years have been Russian nationals and people from Central Asia with connections to Russia, reported The Conversation. Militants from Central Asia have had their own resentments against Russia.
Just last month, two Russian nationals allegedly having Islamic State links were arrested in Poland and Turkey in separate incidents.
The Islamic State has also hired fighters from Russia and other parts of the former Soviet Union for long. A branch of ISIS operates in the Caucasus, mostly in Russia’s Muslim-dominated North Caucasus region, noted ABC.
The southern Russian republic of Chechnya has previously seen an Islamist insurgency, resulting in armed conflict between Moscow and militants from 2007 to 2017. The region is currently under the control of Ramzan Kadyrov, a leader picked by Russia.
Several jihadist groups, including those affiliated with Islamic State, are present in Chechnya.
What would Russia do next?
Putin has vowed to punish the perpetrators behind the dastardly Moscow attack.
“All the perpetrators, organisers and those who ordered this crime will be justly and inevitably punished. Whoever they are, whoever is guiding them. We will identify and punish everyone who stands behind the terrorists, who prepared this atrocity, this strike against Russia, against our people,” the Russian president said on Saturday in a televised address, as per Reuters.
The attack is a reminder of the terrorism threat posed by groups like the Islamic State.
As per The Conversation article, it is unclear whether the Kremlin will continue to blame Ukraine or the West for the attack or hold the Islamic State responsible.
However, the attack is likely to just be the beginning of violence. Russia could launch a crackdown on its Muslim minority communities in the North Caucasus region and beyond, The Conversation article noted.
All eyes are now on Russia’s response.
With inputs from agencies
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