Did PM Modi really promise Trump to stop buying Russian oil?

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him India would end its purchases of oil from Russia — a significant claim in Washington’s ongoing efforts to restrict Moscow’s energy earnings amid the continuing war in Ukraine.

“So I was not happy that India was buying oil, and he [Modi] assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia,” Trump said at a White House event.

“That’s a big step. Now we’re going to get China to do the same thing.”

The statement comes as the United States intensifies bilateral pressure on major energy importers, aiming to cut off a crucial source of revenue that has sustained Russia since sanctions took hold after its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

India and China, which together account for the bulk of Russian seaborne crude exports, have benefited from discounted oil prices that emerged after European markets withdrew.

Trump’s announcement aligns with his broader approach of using personal engagement and trade leverage to push key countries to reduce ties with Moscow.

How Trump has been going after India

In recent months, Trump has specifically turned his focus to India, criticising its continued reliance on Russian crude and imposing tariffs to discourage such purchases.

Earlier this year, Washington levied a 25 per cent duty on Indian exports to the United States after both sides failed to conclude an initial trade agreement.

When New Delhi continued to import Russian oil, the administration added another 25 per cent tariff, effectively doubling the rate on several categories of Indian goods.

These measures, according to US officials, were designed not only to penalise Indian exports but also to create incentives for India to realign its energy sourcing. India, however, has long defended its purchases, citing energy security and affordability as national priorities.

During the same event, Trump mentioned that India would not be able to halt oil shipments “immediately,” noting that it was “a little bit of a process, but that process will be over soon.”

The development follows the nomination of Sergio Gor as US ambassador to India. Gor, a close associate of Trump, recently met Modi in New Delhi, where the two leaders discussed trade, defence, and technology cooperation.

His appointment has been interpreted as an effort to strengthen US-India ties even as Washington continues to pressure New Delhi on its Russian energy imports.

What the data reveals

While Trump’s remarks suggested a major diplomatic breakthrough, trade and energy data from September 2025 show that India remains deeply connected to Russia’s oil market.

The Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a European research institute, reported that India was still the second-largest global buyer of Russian fossil fuels that month, trailing only China.

According to CREA’s estimates, India imported fossil fuels worth EUR 3.6 billion (about Rs 25,597 crore) in September, of which crude oil accounted for 77 per cent (EUR 2.5 billion).

The remaining share included coal (EUR 452 million) and oil products (EUR 344 million).

India’s crude imports from Russia totalled around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in September — a figure that represented roughly one-third of the country’s total oil purchases.

Though this marked a decline of around 9 per cent month-on-month, Russia remained India’s top supplier.

CREA’s findings are supported by data from commodities and shipping tracker Kpler, which pegged India’s total crude imports in September at over 4.5 million bpd, an increase of about 70,000 barrels per day from August but slightly below the same period in 2024.

Of that, Russian crude made up 34 per cent of total shipments.

Despite a 10 per cent dip in overall imports during the first eight months of 2025, India continues its reliance on Russian oil.

What refinery adjustments and price advantages show

India’s expanded relationship with Russian oil since 2022 can be traced to both price incentives and refinery compatibility. Western sanctions drastically reduced European demand, forcing Russia to offer crude at discounts that reached USD 18-20 per barrel below global benchmarks.

For a price-sensitive importer like India — the world’s third-largest oil consumer — these reductions represented significant savings.

Even as the discounts narrowed to USD 5.13 per barrel against Brent in September 2025, Russian oil remained cost-effective compared with supplies from other regions.

Additionally, the composition of Russia’s Urals blend — heavy and sulfur-rich — closely resembles the grades that Indian refineries traditionally process from West Asia.

This technical compatibility allowed Indian refiners to integrate Russian crude with minimal operational changes.

According to CREA, the discount on Urals crude widened by 39 per cent month-on-month in September, contributing to sustained purchases despite falling overall prices.

Shifts within India’s refining sector

While India’s overall Russian imports have declined modestly since mid-2025, the adjustment has not been uniform across its refining sector.

Kpler’s analysis indicates that state-owned refineries reduced their Russian crude imports by over 45 per cent between June and September, reaching their lowest levels since May 2022.

However, this reduction was partially offset by private refiners, which continued to purchase discounted barrels for both domestic use and re-export.

Industry observers say these shifts were not directly caused by US tariffs or diplomatic pressure but were instead shaped by market forces.

The narrowing of discounts, weaker diesel demand during India’s monsoon season, and emerging arbitrage opportunities from West Asian, African, and US suppliers all contributed to the decline.

In addition, some Indian refiners have begun processing Russian crude into refined fuels such as petrol and diesel for export to Europe and G7 nations.

This practice technically complies with sanctions, as refined products are not classified as Russian-origin once processed in another country.

How Opposition has reacted

Trump’s announcement that Modi had pledged to stop Russian oil imports triggered strong responses from opposition leaders in India, who questioned both the claim and the government’s silence.

Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi accused the Modi administration of letting Washington dictate India’s foreign policy.

“PM Modi is frightened of Trump. 1. Allows Trump to decide and announce that India will not buy Russian oil. 2. Keeps sending congratulatory messages despite repeated snubs. 3. Canceled the Finance Minister’s visit to America. 4. Skipped Sharm el-Sheikh. 5. Doesn’t contradict him on Operation Sindoor,” said Gandhi.

Priyanka Chaturvedi, a Shiv Sena MP, voiced similar criticism, suggesting that Trump’s statements amounted to exaggerations.

“These delusions need to be debunked. Silence is betrayal in such a situation - He stopped the India Pak ‘war’ with a 200% tariff threat - 7 jets were shot down - PM Modi has assured that no more Russian Oil purchase,” she said.

New Delhi has repeatedly pointed out that its energy policies are guided by “national interest,” not foreign pressure, while continuing to engage with both sides diplomatically.

The big question: Can India really halt Russian imports?

Since 2022, India’s share of Russian crude in its total imports has risen from under 1 per cent to nearly 40 per cent.

Energy analysts note that completely eliminating Russian crude from India’s import basket would be logistically and economically challenging. With Russian oil still meeting roughly one-third of its demand, India would need to secure comparable volumes from other suppliers, likely at higher prices.

While falling global oil benchmarks could cushion the transition, the impact on India’s trade balance and inflation could be significant.

If India were to eventually phase out Russian crude, it would represent one of the most consequential developments in global energy markets since 2022.

Russia would lose its largest non-Chinese customer, forcing it to redirect supplies to smaller Asian and African buyers or cut production. Meanwhile, West Asian and American producers could benefit from the reallocation of Indian demand.

For the United States, convincing both India and China to limit their purchases would significantly tighten Moscow’s financial position.

How Trump is expanding pressure to other allies

Trump’s administration has also reached out to Japan, one of Washington’s closest allies in Asia, urging it to reduce its Russian energy imports.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X that he discussed the issue with Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato in Washington.

“Minister Kato and I also discussed important issues pertaining to the US-Japan economic relationship and the Administration’s expectation that Japan stop importing Russian energy," Bessent wrote.

Tokyo has yet to confirm whether it intends to comply with this expectation.

The Japanese government has maintained limited energy trade with Russia, citing its participation in the Sakhalin projects, which are critical to its domestic energy supply.

With inputs from agencies