Modi in Kyiv: Will India be peacemaker in Russia-Ukraine war?

“It is India’s firm belief that no problem can be solved on the battlefield. In any crisis, the loss of lives of innocent people has become the biggest challenge for the whole of humanity,” said Prime Minister Narendra Modi on August 22 in a media interaction following talks with his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk in Warsaw.

With these remarks, Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrapped up his two-day visit to Poland and is now making his way to Ukraine , via train , where he will meet President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This visit is unprecedented; it is Modi’s first since the Russia-Ukraine war broke out and the first ever by an Indian leader since the modern formation of the country following the breakup of the Soviet Union.

As Modi makes his way to the war-torn country, all eyes are on him, as many believe that he could play a role in pushing the two sides towards talks. But is that possible? We explore why the PM could be the right person for this almost impossible task.

Is the timing right?

Modi’s visit to Ukraine — it is expected to be seven hours long — comes at a very tricky time. The Independent notes that Modi’s visit to Kyiv coincides with Ukraine’s National Flag Day, commemorating its independence from the Soviet Union.

Moreover, it also comes just over a month after the prime minister met V ladimir Putin in Moscow , inviting criticism from Western capitals as well as Zelenskyy, who called it “a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal on such a day”. It is important to note that on the same day, Modi and Putin were meeting, Russian forces carried out missile strikes across Ukraine that reportedly killed at least 42 people, including several children.

There’s also the recent incursion by Ukraine into Russia’s Kursk, where it claims to have grabbed 1,250 sq km of territory. This action by Kyiv has tilted the scales in the war, with many experts noting that it has embarrassed Vladimir Putin and put him on the backfoot within his own country. At such a juncture, analysts say that the Russian strongman’s willingness to come to the negotiation table would be low. Furthermore, Putin has vowed a firm response, with Russia’s foreign minister even adding that there was no possibility of any talks with Kyiv at the moment.

Amid this escalation in the war, it would be very difficult, almost impossible, to get both sides to sit down and hold a dialogue, say diplomatic experts, with an ambassador from a European Union nation telling Al Jazeera: “It is not safe for him (Modi) after the escalation of war between the two countries.”

Why is Modi the right person for the job though?

Many analysts believe that if there is a leader who can bring Putin and Zelenskyy to a negotiation table it is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. India enjoys good relations with Putin and Russia — it is Moscow’s top oil buyer in July and also shares defence ties since the Cold War. On the other hand, New Delhi also shared a good rapport with the US, Ukraine’s principal backer.

PM Modi has also constantly and throughout the war reiterated that dialogue and discussion are the only way out and that this isn’t the era of war — he made this utterance for the first time in 2022 to Russia’s Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the SCO summit in Samarkand.

Even in Poland, in his discussions with Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Modi said that India is ready to work with friendly countries to provide all possible support for the early restoration of peace and stability in Ukraine.

Just before leaving for the trip, Modi also said he would “share perspectives” on a peaceful resolution of the war. “As a friend and partner, we hope for an early return of peace and stability in the region,” he said.

But others argue that not much can be expected of the visit. Gulshan Sachdeva, professor of European Studies at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, told Al Jazeera that he does not expect much from Modi’s trip and that Russia and the West are capable of talking with each other directly.

Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior research fellow for South Asia at Chatham House, also shared similar views. “I am sceptical of India’s ability to play the role of a mediator as its self-interest in Russia raises questions about whether it has the means and motivation to play the role of some sort of mediator or peace builder, particularly given its long-standing and close relationship with Russia,” he told The Independent.

At most, he added, India could serve as a conduit to relay messages between Moscow and Kyiv and potentially offer a back channel for the West to communicate with Russia.

Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in the UK, also concurred. “Expectation of India playing a role in mediation is too exaggerated,” he was quoted as saying by The Independent. “In my view, India has been able to do a balancing act between all these different parties. It has been able to do it reasonably successfully. But that is the extent. Mediation means going far beyond this.”

But what is the purpose of Modi’s visit then?

For PM Modi and India, this visit is significant. It is a display of India’s strategic autonomy — it shows the world that New Delhi doesn’t and won’t choose a side in the war.

Some believe that Modi’s visit will provide New Delhi an opportunity to build on its relations, be it trade or otherwise, with Ukraine. India imports Ukrainian grain and agricultural goods and this would provide the two countries to deepen this tie. Also, several Indian naval vessels rely on Ukrainian engines and spare parts.

However, there are some geopolitical pundits who note that this is India’s attempt of placating Western powers. Harish Khare, Indian political analyst and former adviser to Manmohan Singh, told Al Jazeera: “No substantive results should be expected from the visit,” he said. “He is going there to appease his Western friends.”

For Ukraine, this visit also marks a big “diplomatic win”. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, Dmytro Kuleba earlier noted, “It’s important to have diplomatic evidence that the picture is more complicated, and these players also respect Ukraine and engage with Ukraine under these circumstances.”

He stated that the visit is a success in its effort to push neutral nations to show balance in their relations with the warring countries.

But as the New York Times said in one report the mere presence of the Indian leader in Kyiv is perhaps the most significant development.

With inputs from agencies