Marine Le Pen verdict: Can France’s far-right survive without her?

“It’s a fatal day for our democracy,” said Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right National Rally, after she was convicted of embezzlement, which resulted in her being barred from seeking public office for five years. This ruling effectively dashes her 2027 presidential hopes.

Speaking to French TV channel TF1 in her first reaction to the verdict, Le Pen called the ruling a “political decision” aimed at preventing her from running in the 2027 presidential election and said that millions of French people “are outraged.”

The question that many are now asking is — what’s the future of her party and far-right politics in France? We try to get an answer to this.

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Marine Le Pen convicted and banned from public office

On March 31, 56-year-old Marine Le Pen , daughter of the late far-right totemic figure Jean-Marie Le Pen, faced her worst-case scenario when a court sentenced her to two years under house arrest while wearing an electronic ankle bracelet, and an additional two-year suspended sentence. Worse than all of that was the five years’ ineligibility for public office with immediate effect.

The ruling came as Le Pen and other National Rally party officials stood trial for having used money intended for European Union parliamentary aides instead to pay staff who worked for the party between 2004 and 2016, violating the 27-nation bloc’s regulations. The National Rally was called the National Front at the time.

The judge said Le Pen had been at the heart of a “system” that her party used to siphon off EU parliament money. Le Pen, who denied wrongdoing, has also been fined €100,000 (Rs 92 lakh).

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While Le Pen has said she will appeal the verdict, which she and her supporters have deemed as a “political decision”, she will be ruled out of the 2027 French presidential election. Speaking outside the court after the verdict was delivered, Le Pen said, “There are millions of French people who believe in me. For 30 years I have been fighting against injustice. It is what I shall continue to do right to the end.”

Support for Le Pen

Reactions to the verdict from her camp were swift. Jordan Bardella , the 29-year-old RN’s president, spoke of Le Pen as if she was a martyr. “Today it is not only Marine Le Pen who was unjustly condemned,” he declared. “It is French democracy that was killed.”

Éric Zemmour, another firebrand of the nationalist right and a former French presidential contender himself, struck a similar note. “It is not for judges to decide who the people must vote for,” he said, casting the verdict as a blow not just to Le Pen, but to the democratic process itself.

But support for Le Pen didn’t only come from the far-right corridors of France. Across Europe — from Madrid to Budapest — far-right leaders condemned the verdict, almost making it seem that she had been wronged.

Hungarian nationalist leader Viktor Orban wrote on X, “Je suis Marine,” (I am Marine).” “I back Marine,” was the message in French of Italy’s League leader, Matteo Salvini, posted on a picture with the French politician.

“I am shocked by the incredibly tough verdict against Marine Le Pen,” said Dutch firebrand Geert Wilders. “I support and believe in her 100 per cent and I trust she will win the appeal and become president of France.”

In Belgium, far-right Vlaams Belang leader Tom Van Grieken called the court’s decision “an attack on democracy” and pledged, “Le Pen can continue to count on our support.” While Spain’s Santiago Abascal, head of the hard-right Vox party, warned: “They will not succeed in silencing the voice of the French people.”

Elon Musk, ‘US First Buddy’, also echoed similar sentiments about Le Pen’s conviction. He said the move would “backfire, like the legal attacks against President Trump”.

Trump, the US president , himself reacted too to the news, comparing it to his many legal battles. “She was banned from running for five years and she was the leading candidate. That sounds like this country.”

An uncertain future

Many believe that Le Pen’s conviction marks the end of her political career — though she differs. However, the reality as of now is that she and her party, the RN, face an unclear future.

Some believe that the conviction is a personal dent to Le Pen’s image. The far-right leader, who took over in 2011, has over the years worked hard to make the National Rally more palatable for mainstream voters. She also presented the party as being honest and the alternative to old-school politicians with their hands in the till.

However, being found guilty of embezzlement goes against her own image as an anti-corruption crusader, who said in a TV debate in 2004, “Everyone has taken money from the till except the Front National … The French are sick of seeing politicians embezzling money. It’s scandalous.”

But other poll pundits note that Le Pen’s conviction will help, not hurt, her party. That’s because the hue and cry from her supporters almost paint her like a martyr and the narrative that is spinning that she has become the victim of the “system”. As CNN wrote in one report, for RN supporters the verdict plays into a belief that the system is rigged against them. Some see this as an assault on democracy with Le Pen framing the ruling as an attack on “the will of the people.”

This was also amplified by Elon Musk, who wrote on X, “When the radical left can’t win via democratic vote, they abuse the legal system to jail their opponents.”

The BBC also echoed similar sentiments in its analysis. It wrote, “Her “draconian” punishment —being banned from standing for the presidency — will be interpreted as a badge of honour: proof that she alone is standing up to the powers-that-be.”

However, the worry is that can the RN perform at the ballot without Le Pen. The 56-year-old is loved by her supporters and Jordan Bardella, the 29-year-old, can hardly fill her shoes. If Marine Le Pen is indeed unable to run in 2027, the RN loses much of its appeal.

Moreover, Le Pen’s exit from the presidential race could bolster other politicians to enter the race, such as her niece Marion Marechal or conservative heavyweights like current interior minister Bruno Retailleau, who boasts far more experience than Bardella.

There’s also a concern over the financial condition of the RN after Le Pen’s conviction. The court has fined Le Pen’s party €2 million (Rs 18.5 crore) — €1 million (Rs 9.25 crore) has to be paid while the other half would have to be paid in case of a repeat offence. Moreover, the party will also relinquish another million euros which were confiscated during the investigation. This could have an impact on the party’s accounts. An Associated Press report revealed that between 2013 and 2016 it was running a deficit of €9.1 million by the end of 2016.

We will have to wait and watch for what comes next, but one thing is certain: 2025 hasn’t been kind to Le Pen — first, her father’s passing and now her conviction.

With inputs from agencies