Mahayuti’s ‘Maha’ dilemma: What are the chances of Devendra Fadnavis becoming CM?

After a decisive victory in the Maharashtra Assembly elections, the Mahayuti faces a conundrum: Who should lead the state — Devendra Fadnavis or Eknath Shinde? Two days to the results, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led alliance is yet to announce its Chief Ministerial pick for Maharashtra.

The Mahayuti has stormed back to power in the western state, with the BJP emerging as the single-largest party with 132 out of 288 seats. Its allies – the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar’s Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) – bagged 57 and 41 seats respectively. The opposition, Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), won just 46 seats in total.

In the wake of the BJP’s stellar performance, Fadnavis is seen as a frontrunner for the Maharashtra CM job. However, reports say, Shinde is not ready to let go of the top post.

Let’s take a closer look.

Mahayuti’s dilemma: Fadnavis vs Shinde?

Many BJP leaders have called for Fadnavis to be chosen as Maharashtra’s CM after the party’s impressive performance in the polls.

He is believed to have scripted the BJP’s big victory in the Assembly polls after the dismal performance in the Lok Sabha elections.

While Fadnavis is the obvious choice, it is not a done deal. Shinde, the incumbent chief minister, seems to be in no mood to give up the post – yet.

The Shiv Sena leaders argue that Shinde should continue as the CM as the state went to polls with his face. They also credit the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana, a scheme providing financial assistance to poor women, for Mahayuti’s win.

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As per CNN-News18 sources, Ajit Pawar’s NCP has backed Fadnavis for the CM post, after a meeting on Sunday (November 24).

Sources added that the Mahayuti government will continue with the formula of a CM and two deputy CMs.

Who will be Maharashtra CM after NDA's mega victory? BJP MLAs root for Devendra Fadnavis, Shiv Sena backs Eknath Shinde

News18's @kotakyesha and @mayuganapatye get latest updates @SakshiLitoriya_ | #MaharashtraElection2024 #Maharashtra #MaharashtraElectionResults pic.twitter.com/6FDNVGnvGl

— News18 (@CNNnews18) November 25, 2024

There are reports that Fadnavis, Pawar, and Shinde are likely to meet Union Home Minister Amit Shah in Delhi today. Discussions about rotational chief ministership could also come up, reported NDTV.

Shiv Sena candidate Sanjay Shirsat said, “There are chances that the Mahayuti leaders will head to Delhi on Monday. Every party worker wants their party leader to be the chief, but the final decision lies with Ekanth Shinde, Devendra Fadnavis and Ajit Pawar."

Maharashtra BJP chief Chandrashekhar Bawankule on Sunday said that the party leadership and Mahayuti leaders will take a call on the Maharashtra CM pick.

What are Fadnavis’s chances to be Maharashtra’s CM?

There is growing sentiment within the BJP for Fadnavis to stake claim to the chief ministership, which many believe he had to sacrifice in 2022 for Shinde.

He also enjoys support from the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) for the top job. After the Lok Sabha poll debacle in Maharashtra, Fadnavis had approached the RSS seeking help in countering the MVA’s narrative that the BJP opposed the Constitution and alleged consolidation of votes on caste and religious lines against the saffron party, reported Indian Express.

The RSS, the ideological parent of the BJP, led sustained voter mobilisation efforts this time.

A senior RSS/BJP functionary, on the condition of anonymity, told Indian Express, “The RSS’s concern is that Maharashtra, with such a massive mandate now, should have an able administrator and visionary who can lead the state with a firm hand.”

During the campaigning, Union Home Minister Shah had said that the Mahayuti partners will sit together to decide the next CM. However, he also mentioned that the people wanted the “return of the Mahayuti and Fadnavis”.

Still, Fadnavis’ road is not clear as the BJP leadership also has to keep in mind its “coalition dharma”.

As per reports, some in the party support retaining Shinde as chief minister for now, while accommodating Fadnavis at the national level as the BJP national president.

A senior BJP leader told Indian Express that the party’s “image” as a coalition partner could suffer if Shinde is replaced after the alliance went to polls with him as the CM. “Prime Minister Narendra Modi has always believed in ensuring that alliance partners trust the BJP despite it being the larger party. So we will think twice before we decide. The BJP leadership will certainly not do anything to create mistrust or lose the goodwill of its partners in the

National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as we are a coalition government at the centre,” this leader added.

Fadnavis’ Brahmin identity could also be a factor in deciding the CM face. In this case, he could lose to Maratha leader Shinde.

While Marathas comprise 30 per cent of the state’s population, Brahmins account for around 10 per cent.

Shinde, who is reluctant to leave the CM post, argues that his continuance in the top job could benefit Mahayuti in the upcoming local body polls, including the key Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections, sources told Times of India (TOI).

Even if the BJP goes ahead with Fadnavis as the CM face, upsetting Shiv Sena, the party has the mandate to do so. It only needs the support of one of its allies to form the government.

However, it is more likely that the BJP will assuage Shinde through Cabinet posts rather than isolating him.

With inputs from agencies