Why low voter turnout is not just a 2024 problem

India has completed three out of the seven phases of polling for the Lok Sabha elections. According to the figures available on Tuesday (7 May) night, 64.4 per cent voter turnout was recorded during the third phase of voting in 93 constituencies across 11 states and Union Territories.

This is a 2.9 per cent dip in the voting figures as these constituencies had recorded a turnout of 67.33 per cent in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, noted Indian Express. The first two phases of the general elections also saw a plunge in voter turnout data compared to 2019.

But why is this happening? Let’s understand better.

Voter turnout figures in first two phases

The Election Commission of India (ECI) data reveals that the final voter turnout for the first phase, wherein 102 constituencies went to polls, held on 19 April was 66.14 per cent, a drop from 69.4 per cent in the 2019 polls.

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As per the poll body, 66.71 per cent of the electorate in 88 seats cast their votes in the second phase on 26 April, a decrease of about three percentage points from 2019 when 69.2 per cent voter turnout was recorded.

The EC shared these figures on 30 April – 11 days after the first phase of polling, and four days after the second phase ended.

Is low voter turnout a problem just in 2024?

No.

The poll body’s data shows that Lok Sabha elections in India have been marked by poor voter turnout.

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According to the ECI, India’s first general election, conducted between October 1951 and February 1952, saw a national voter turnout of 45.67 per cent.

Since then, voter turnout has increased but has not crossed the 70 per cent mark yet.

In fact, as per the ECI figures, the highest voter turnout was recorded in the 2019 general elections – 67.4 per cent. However, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Uttarakhand, Telangana, Gujarat, Punjab, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir and Jharkhand had a voter turnout below this national average, as per the Election Commission.

In 2014, the final voter turnout was 66.44 per cent for all 543 Lok Sabha seats, an 8.23 per cent rise from 2009 (58.21 per cent).

Why is voter turnout low in 2024?

The final voter turnout for phase 3 could surge but whether it would surpass the figures reported in 2019 remains to be seen.

So far, the turnout has been lower for the first two phases compared to the last Lok Sabha elections.

One of the reasons can be the apathy of urban voters. The voter turnout in urban seats was poor in the first two phases of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Not only that, it further fell this time.

Uttar Pradesh’s Ghaziabad, which logged 55.88 per cent turnout in 2019, reported 49.88 per cent voting figures in 2024. In Karnataka, Bangalore Central saw a turnout of 54.06 per cent, compared to 54.31 per cent in the last general elections.

From 53.69 per cent in 2019, Bangalore South witnessed a marginal drop to 53.17 per cent this time.

The Election Commission expressed disappointment with voters’ apathy in metros for the lower turnout in the first two phases.

“Commission is disappointed with the turnout level in some metropolitan cities in phase 2 polls, a pointer to the rigid levels of apathy in India’s high-tech city. Cities in NCR have fared no better. ECI last month assembled many metro Commissioners in Delhi to work out a strategy to fight urban apathy. An exclusive action plan has been taken up. The Commission hopes that urban centres going to polls in next phases turn the tide. Commission will constantly follow up with concerned city administrations,” the poll body said in a statement last week, as per Indian Express.

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This urban apathy was also visible in the 2019 general elections. Of the 50 constituencies that recorded the lowest turnout, 17 were in metropolitans or major cities, as per the poll body.

In 2019, when India’s voter turnout had reached a record high, 30 crore electors did not cast their ballots, including a big chunk of migrant workers. The voter turnout was lower in states with larger immigration rates and populations in the last general election, according to the statistics report of the EC, News18 reported.

“The voter turnout in General Elections 2019 was 67.4 per cent and the Election Commission of India is concerned about the issue of over 30 crore electors not exercising their franchise and also differential voter turnout in various States/UTs,” the poll body reportedly said in its report.

“Inability to vote due to internal migration (domestic migrants) is one of the prominent reasons to be addressed to improve voter turnout and ensure participative elections,” it added.

Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar noted that Uttar Pradesh has India’s largest voter base but one of the lowest voter participation, reported News18.

The cost of travelling to their hometown to vote, unpaid leave and wage loss are some of the factors hampering migrants from exercising their franchise. Remote voting for migrants could be a way to address this issue and increase voter turnout.

Extreme heat could also be a reason for voters not turning up at polling booths. Temperatures in some parts of India have already crossed 40 degrees Celsius.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that heatwaves lasting 10 to 20 days, unlike the normal four to eight days, are expected between April and June. The polling will continue till next month amid the intense heat, with the seventh and last phase on 1 June.

What does low voter turnout indicate?

Historically, lower voter turnout has often suggested troubles for the ruling party, but experts say this is not always true.

“It is difficult to read voters’ minds if the turnout is low. The thumb rule is if the voting percentage is low by up to 5 per cent we perceive people do not want change and there is a lack of inertia. In that scenario, local issues play an important role resulting in sometimes astounding results. Kuch bhi ho sakta hai (anything can happen),” Nomita P Kumar of Giri Institute of Development Studies told Moneycontrol.

With inputs from agencies