Let it snow: Why winters are becoming shorter and drier in Kashmir

There is hardly any snow in Kashmir. Ladakh is also witnessing dry winters. This, say locals, is a first. “This has never happened before in January. Not in my lifetime… Definitely not in Gulmarg,” Ishfaaq Ahmad Malik, a ski instructor in Kashmir told The New York Times. While weather forecasters are hopeful about some snowfall by the end of this month, for now, the situation remains grim. Until mid-January 2024, this winter has experienced a significant lack of precipitation, with an 80 per cent deficit in November, a 79 per cent deficit in December, and a 100 per cent deficit in January up to now, according to a report in India Today. The India Meteorological Department attributed it to the lack of active western disturbances this winter season. So, is it the climate change behind dry winters in Kashmir? How is it affecting the people there? How worried we should be? Let’s take a closer look. Consequences of global warming and climate change Over recent years, the winter duration in Jammu and Kashmir has shortened, shifting from October to March to now being confined to December and January. This change is attributed to global climate change and warming trends. Moreover, there is a noticeable shift in precipitation from snow to rain, contributing to a decrease in overall snowfall. [caption id=“attachment_13632802” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Until mid-January 2024, this winter has experienced a significant lack of precipitation, with an 80 per cent deficit in November, a 79 per cent deficit in December, and a 100 per cent deficit in January up to now. Image Courtesy: @ayesha17498/X[/caption] The absence of active western disturbances — weather systems that originate in the Mediterranean region and bring unseasonal rainfall to northwest India — is also the reason behind the blinding layer of fog persisting over the plains in the region since 25 December, the IMD said on Thursday. The precipitation deficit is likely to impact freshwater availability in the Himalayan region, further affecting horticulture and agricultural production, said Sonam Lotus, the head of the meteorological centre in Leh in Ladakh. ‘Very worrying’ “January is peak winter but surprisingly, it is so warm in Ladakh and Kashmir that crops are blooming early, and this is very worrying,” he said. Raihana Habib Kanth, dean (Agriculture) at the Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology of Kashmir said that the snowfall in the Chillai Kalan period (21 December to 29 January) is the only freshwater source for the region before the southwest monsoon sets in. “The prolonged dry spell has reduced the water level in the rivers and streams in the region,” she said. According to a report authored by IMD scientists Krishna Mishra, Naresh Kumar, and RK Jenamani, maximum temperatures have been below normal by five-eight degrees Celsius over the northern plains since 29 December, with a respite on 7-8 January due to a western disturbance. Minimum temperatures have been below four degrees Celsius at many stations in the region from 12 to 17 January. **Also Read: Forget snow, there is a water shortage in Kashmir. What is going on?** Also, very dense fog has been persisting over the plains of northwest India since 25 December, reaching its maximum intensity and duration on 14 January when visibility dropped to zero metres over the entire northern plains from Amritsar to Dibrugarh across Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar. This severe weather over north India is primarily due to the lack of active western disturbances over northwest India during December and January. Generally, five to seven western disturbances impact the region during these months. The region has not seen any strong western disturbance this winter so far, the scientists said. [caption id=“attachment_13632792” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] A large number of tourists, who arrived in Gulmarg on New Year’s Eve in the hope of enjoying skiing and other snow-related activities, had to go back disappointed due to the lack of snowfall. PTI[/caption] Two western disturbances affected the country, one in December and another in January, but their impact remained confined to Gujarat, north Maharashtra, east Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, they said. “As a result, the western Himalayan Region has received very little precipitation (rain/snow) during the month of December, roughly about 80 per cent less than normal. Similarly, there has been almost nil precipitation in the region in January so far,” the report read. This severe weather is mainly due to three reasons: lack of active western disturbances over northwest India, prevailing El-Nino conditions, and a strong jet stream, the scientists said. Kumar said, “Fog formation requires three conditions: weak low-level winds, moisture, and overnight cooling. Strong western disturbances, characterised by strong winds and precipitation, disrupt these conditions.” Strong jet streams — which are bands of strong wind that generally blow from west to east all across the globe and impact weather — have been prevailing over north India for the last five days." “It is leading to subsidence of cold air and enhancing cold wave/cold day conditions over the region. These conditions are likely to continue over the next five days,” he added. **Also Read: Disappearing Act: Why Kashmir’s Gulmarg is snowless this winter** The lack of active western disturbances can also be attributed to the prevailing El-Nino conditions and abnormal warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean. During El-Nino years, there are fewer cold wave days over north India during December and January. Mukhtar Ahmed, the head of the IMD Centre in Srinagar, mentioned that continued present conditions may bring some snowfall in the next seven to eight days, as reported by India Today. Not just Kashmir Similar conditions are observed in Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and even in the higher altitude areas of the Annapurna range. Well-known international ski destinations are grappling with a scarcity of snow. Rijan Bhakta, a Professor at Kathmandu University, told India Today about the minimal winter precipitation in Nepal, citing a weak western disturbance leading to limited snowfall in the Himalayas. He warned of a hydroecology crisis and predicted a negative impact on winter crops due to delayed snowfall. No snow, no tourism A prolonged dry spell in Kashmir and other Himalayan regions of northern India is causing concern among farmers and posing a threat to lucrative tourism and skiing industries, which contribute millions of dollars annually. “No snow essentially means no tourism this time of year,” Javed Rehman, a tourism official in Kashmir told The New York Times. “It is a stark contrast to 2023, when the resort extended the ski season by 15 days, to 15 April, because of an influx of people,” he added. Thousands of people rely on a snowy Gulmarg for their livelihood. Last year, more than a million tourists took the cable car from the bowl-shaped valley to Gulmarg’s top. “For the whole year, our only expectation is a good two months of work,” said Imtiaz Khan, a ski instructor from Tangmarg in northern Kashmir. Mohammad Asadullah Hajam, a hotel manager in Gulmarg, stated that every hotelier was having a similar difficulty, with more guests cancelling their reservations with each passing day. “About 50 per cent of cancellations are being done by foreign tourists,” he was cited by New York Times as saying. “That is where most of our revenue comes from.” With inputs from PTI