 "GDP growth, inflation and more: The key takeaways from Economic Survey tabled by Nirmala Sitharaman")
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has tabled the Economic Survey 2024-2025 in Parliament.
The annual document, which is presented in Parliament the day before the Union Budget, summarises the state of the economy.
It also predicts the path ahead when it comes to the economy.
“I rise to lay on the table a copy in English and Hindi of the Economic Survey 2024-25 along with the statistical appendix,” Sitharaman said.
But what are the key takeaways of the 2024-2025 Economic Survey prepared by Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswarana and his team?
Let’s take a closer look:
On GDP
The Economic Survey stated that India’s real GDP is estimated to grow at 6.4 per cent in the 2025 Financial Year.
It said it expected growth in 2026 Financial Year would be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent.
“The fundamentals of the domestic economy remain robust, with a strong external account, calibrated fiscal consolidation and stable private consumption. On balance of these considerations, we expect that the growth in FY26 would be between 6.3 and 6.8 per cent,” the survey stated.
On inflation
The survey said retail headline inflation as per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has come down from 5.4 per cent in FY24 to 4.9 per cent in April-December 2024.
It chalked up the decline to a 0.9 percentage point reduction in core inflation (non-food, non-fuel) between FY24 and April-December 2024.
It noted that inflation rates across economies have been on a steady downward trajectory.
“This has been the result of tighter monetary policy regimes across the globe and supply chains adapting to higher levels of economic uncertainty,” the Economic Survey noted.
“India’s food inflation was driven by factors such as supply chain disruptions, extreme weather conditions, and consequent reduced harvests in key food items like vegetables and pulses. Extreme weather events such as heatwaves and unseasonal rainfall have affected food production and supply chains,” the Economic Survey stated.
It said food inflation is likely to ‘soften’ in the FY25 due to seasonal easing of vegetable prices and Kharif harvest arrivals.
“Good Rabi production is likely to contain food prices in the first half of FY26,” the survey stated.
On unemployment
According to the Economic Survey 2025, the unemployment rate has dropped to 3.2 per cent in 2023-2024 compared to 6 per cent in 2017-2018.
“The government has implemented measures to boost employment, foster self-employment, and promote worker welfare. The recently launched PM-Internship Scheme is emerging as a transformative catalyst for employment generation,” it stated.
On formal sector
It said that there has been significant growth when it comes to the formal sector in India.
It noted that Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) subscriptions over doubled in the 2024 Financial Year – from 61 lakh to 131 lakh.
This included 95.6 lakh subscriptions from April to November – mostly by youth.
Workers between the ages of 18 and 25 years contributed to 47 per cent of the net payroll additions.
‘Construction a standout’
The survey noted how construction has proved a standout since mid-FY 21 – spiking 15 per cent above the pre-pandemic period.
It chalked up this to robust infrastructure development and housing demand.
“The utilities sector, including electricity, gas, water supply, and other services, reached its pre-pandemic trend by the end of FY23 and has consistently stayed above these levels. Manufacturing, while steadily recovering, remains slightly below its pre-pandemic trajectory. Meanwhile, mining continues to operate below its pre-pandemic trend,” the survey stated.
On agriculture and food
“The agriculture sector remains strong, consistently operating well above trend levels,” the Economic Survey noted.
The survey added that total Kharif food grain production is estimated at a record 1647.05 lakh metric tonnes (LMT) for the 2024-2025 Economic Year.
This is 5.7 per cent higher than 2023-24 and 8.2 per cent higher than the average food grain production over the past five years.
“The estimated increase is mainly on account of the rise in rice, maize, coarse grains and oilseeds output. A normal southwest monsoon in 2024 has improved the water levels in reservoirs, ensuring sufficient water for irrigation during the rabi crop production,” it noted.
Trade and exports
The survey noted that total exports (merchandise and services) registered a steady growth in the first nine months of FY25 – touching $602.6 billion (6 per cent).
It said growth in services and goods exports, excluding petroleum and gems and jewellery, was 10.4 per cent.
Total imports during the same period reached $682.2 billion, registering a growth of 6.9 per cent on the back of steady domestic demand.
“… Historically, India’s export growth has been a high beta play on global export growth. This means domestic growth levers will be relatively more important than external ones in the coming years,” the preface to the survey said.
“Navigating global headwinds will require strategic and prudent policy management and reinforcing the domestic fundamentals,” the survey said.
“The evolving global trade dynamics, marked by gradual shifts towards greater protectionism, require assessing the situation and developing a forward-looking strategic trade roadmap. By adapting to these trends and leveraging its strengths, India can accelerate its growth and enhance its presence in global trade,” the survey read.
Foreign Direct Investment
The survey noted that gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows increased 17.9 per cent year-over-year in April-November 2024.
It stated that gross FDI inflows during April- November in FY25 are higher than the levels witnessed in the corresponding period of any previous year except FY21. Net FDI declined over this period, primarily on account of the uptick in repatriation, which is higher by 33.2 per cent YoY after a growth of 51.5 per cent in FY24.
“The rise in repatriation through the channels of secondary sales and Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) by multinational companies amid strong stock market performance points to investor confidence in profitable exits for direct investors,” it said.
Foreign exchange
It pegged India’s foreign exchange reserves at $634.6 billion as of 3 January, 2025.
“India’s forex reserves are sufficient to cover 90 per cent of external debt and provide an import cover of more than ten months,” the survey stated.
Remittances
The Economic Survey noted that India is the top recipient of remittances in the world.
It chalked up this to an uptick in job creation in OECD economies.
“These two factors combined to ensure that India’s current account deficit (CAD) remains relatively contained at 1.2 per cent of GDP in Q2 FY25,” the Economic Survey stated.
NPAs
The Economic Survey quoted the RBI’s Financial Stability Report (FSR) in December 2024 as stating that gross non-performing assets in banking have declined to a 12-year low of 2.6 per cent of gross loans and advances.
“Macro stress tests suggest that banks’ overall capital levels would stay above the regulatory minimum even in adverse scenarios,” the survey stated.
‘India to be third-largest economy by 2030’
The survey noted that in 2014, India was ranked as the tenth-largest economy in the world. Now, in less than a decade, India has leapfrogged into fourth place.
“She is poised to be the third largest economy by 2030, after the USA and China. By 2030, she will have a growing working-age population and healthy manufacturing sector. The country’s demographic trend highlights the growing potential for a demographic dividend. The currently young population, with a median age of around 28 years, compared to the ageing population of developed countries, is the key driver of the growth potential,” the Economic Survey 2025 stated.
With inputs from agencies
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