Why Joe Biden might be forced to talk tough with Israel

A top United States diplomat is in Israel to press the West Asian country for “humanitarian pauses” in the Gaza war. US secretary of state Anthony Blinken met Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Tel Aviv on Friday (3 November) on his second trip to West Asia in a month. His visit comes after US president Joe Biden recently said that there should be a humanitarian “pause” in Israel’s war with Hamas. “A pause means give time to get the prisoners out,” he said at a fundraiser in Minnesota, reported Associated Press (AP). Ahead of his trip to Israel, Blinken said he would discuss “concrete steps” to protect civilians in the conflict. “We’ve seen in recent days Palestinian civilians continuing to bear the brunt of this action, and it’s important that the United States is committed to making sure everything possible is done to protect civilians,” NBC News quoted him as saying. While Blinken tries to convince Israel of “pauses” in the fighting, the Israeli troops have surrounded Gaza City, which the West Asian nation says is the centre of Hamas military infrastructure. Moreover, after offering its unfettered support to Israel during the initial days of the war, why has the US changed its tone now? Let’s understand. US’ initial response to Israel-Hamas war After Hamas’ surprise attack on the West Asian nation on 7 October, the US emphasised on Israel’s “right to defend itself”. “We stand with Israel. And we will make sure Israel has what it needs to take care of its citizens, defend itself and respond to this attack,” Biden said at the time, adding that “if the United States experienced what Israel is experiencing, our response would be swift, decisive and overwhelming.” On the other hand, his call for protecting Palestinian civilians in the conflict was muted. America also said it was “surging” its military support to Israel, providing the Jewish nation with air defense capabilities and munitions. The US dispatched an aircraft carrier equipped with guided-missile cruisers to the waters near Israel to deter other countries or militant groups in West Asia from joining the war. As casualties escalated in Gaza due to unrelenting retaliatory airstrikes by Israel, US president Biden even cast doubt on the reported number of Palestinians killed. [caption id=“attachment_13344222” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] US secretary of state Antony Blinken meets with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Tel Aviv on 3 November. AP[/caption] While the US government vowed unwavering support for Israel, the divided opinions on the conflict were visible across universities in the country. As per AP, there are fears that anti-Israel sentiment is growing in the US, especially in universities, amid increasing casualties and worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Hamas’ initial attack on Israel killed 1,400 people, mainly civilians. Over 9,000 Palestinians, mostly women and minors, have died in Gaza in Israel’s retaliatory bombardment, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. Electoral concerns Arab American voters have criticised Biden’s unfettered support for Israel. Biden got the support of about 59 per cent of Arab Americans in 2020, which has now declined to just 17 per cent, Foreign Policy reported citing a recent poll. But more on this later. Rabbis and Jewish leaders in US’ South Florida have been encouraging the community members to call on lawmakers to back Israel to the hilt as it ramps up its offensive, reported AP. Former US president and Republican leader Donald Trump notched up Florida in the 2020 presidential elections. While on the national level, 30 per cent of Jewish voters supported Trump, about 43 per cent of Florida’s Jewish voters backed him, as per AP VoteCast. “If Florida is to regain its status as a perennially competitive state, how Jewish voters perceive Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war will be critical,” according to AP. Michigan, which was among the key states that ensured Biden’s White House victory in 2020, is also an electoral concern for the US president ahead of the 2024 presidential elections. As per a report in AP, democrats in Michigan have warned the White House that Biden could damage his support within the crucial Arab American community due to his handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Michigan is home to the most number of Arab Americans in the US, with 310,000 residents having West Asian or North African roots. Many among this key voter base threaten to unite against Biden’s reelection campaign unless he demands a ceasefire in the war, reported AP. So far, the US president has been unwilling to do that. White House national security spokesman John Kirby clarified that America was endorsing a “temporary, localised” pause and not a general cease-fire. As per Foreign Policy, the Biden administration has no plans to abolish its plan to supply more arms to Israel either. ALSO READ: How Biden’s ‘quiet diplomacy’ on Israel and Palestine has backfired Internal dissent Biden’s response to Israel has some administration officials concerned that the US would become “more and more isolated” on the international stage, reported NBC News. According to a Foreign Policy report, objections to Biden’s Israel policy are rising among officials of the State Department, National Security Council, and other agencies. The internal dissent was highest in the first two weeks of the war in the State Department, the report added. David Miller, a scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and former State Department expert on Arab-Israeli negotiations, told Foreign Policy, “In 25 years working at the Department of State … I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s as if the administration is mediating its own internal Israel-Palestinian conflict.” Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement recently: “It’s time for Israel’s friends to recognise that the current operational approach is causing an unacceptable level of civilian harm and does not appear likely to achieve the goal of permanently ending the threat from Hamas,” reported NBC News. [caption id=“attachment_13344322” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Palestinian woman wounded in Israeli bombardment of the Gaza Strip arrives at a hospital in Khan Younis on 3 November. AP[/caption] Current and former officials told Foreign Policy they were unsure how much the internal dissent among diplomats and security officials has shaped the change in tone of the Biden administration. But many agree that the footage and pictures of devastation coming out from Gaza, along with alarms raised by humanitarian groups and condemnation from other regional powers has brought on a shift in the US policy “at the margins”, leading to vocal advocation for humanitarian relief. As the end of conflict remains evasive, some senior US officials believe the rift between the Biden administration and Israel over military actions would grow amid America’s worries that the war could trigger a wider conflict in West Asia “while derailing Biden’s other foreign policy efforts, especially when it comes to America’s Arab allies”, reported NBC News. With inputs from agencies