 "Jesus to return in 2025? The crypto market is placing its bets")
Cryptocurrency markets have long been associated with risk-taking and speculation, but a new wager on Polymarket has taken financial betting into uncharted territory — religion.
The decentralised prediction platform is currently hosting a bet on whether Jesus Christ will return to Earth by the end of 2025.
his contract, which assigns a 3 per cent probability to the Second Coming occurring within the next two years, has sparked curiosity and debate, blending the digital finance world with biblical prophecy.
Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction marketplace, is known for allowing bets on a range of real-world events, from political outcomes to economic decisions.
However, this particular contract moves beyond the usual speculative terrain into eschatology, attracting both sceptics and believers.
The bet, which has already seen $44,760 in trading volume, invites participants to stake money on an event that has been a cornerstone of Christian theology for centuries.
If Jesus returns before December 31, 2025, at 11:59 pm ET, those who wagered “Yes” will win. If He does not, the market will resolve in favour of those who bet “No.”
What are the theories behind the bet?
The wager is rooted in interpretations of biblical prophecies put forward by certain religious groups. One such group, the Church of God Ministry, believes in a 24-year “redeemed time” period that began in the year 2000 and will conclude in 2025.
Another group, Free Gift From God, draws on an alternate reading of the “Seventy Weeks” prophecy in the Book of Daniel, linking it to a 1535 Ottoman decree by Suleiman the Magnificent.
Some proponents of these theories even incorporate modern historical events, such as Cardinal George Pell’s 2018 conviction, into their calculations.
While these interpretations have gained traction in some circles, mainstream Christian theology rejects any attempt to predict the exact date of Christ’s return.
Biblical scholars often reference Matthew 24:36, which states, “No one knows the day or the hour.”
Despite this, Polymarket traders appear to be less concerned with theological accuracy and more interested in the financial implications of betting on such an unconventional event.
How will the bet be settled?
A key point of contention surrounding the bet is the mechanism for determining its outcome. According to Polymarket’s guidelines, the contract will be resolved based on a “consensus of credible sources.”
However, this raises the question: who determines what qualifies as a credible source when it comes to divine appearances?
Unlike political events, which can be verified through official declarations, or sports outcomes, which are determined by clear rules, the return of Jesus Christ is a concept deeply tied to faith rather than empirical evidence.
This ambiguity has led to speculation about potential disputes over the contract’s resolution. Similar issues have arisen in past Polymarket bets, such as one concerning US President Donald Trump’s involvement in Bitcoin policy .
The contract in question, which speculated on whether Trump would create a Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days in office , drew $14.2 million in trading volume but remains contested due to the unclear definition of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve."
Why is crypto fascinated with eschatology & extreme speculation?
This is not the first time Polymarket has hosted a prediction related to religious or apocalyptic themes. In 2021, a separate contract speculated on an apocalyptic event linked to the cessation of a “perpetual sacrifice,” demonstrating that even theological and esoteric subjects can be transformed into tradable assets.
This latest wager on Jesus’ return further illustrates how crypto markets thrive on sensational narratives, whether they involve politics, finance, or religion.
The trend of betting on unpredictable or unprovable events underscores a broader phenomenon within the crypto community — leveraging virality for financial gain. In some cases, the attention surrounding such bets is more valuable than the probability of the event itself occurring.
Decentralised finance is allowing anyone to participate in global speculation, merging the lines between historical religious doctrines and digital financial instruments. It also raises ethical and philosophical questions about the role of financial markets in addressing matters of faith.
One thing is clear: in a world where blockchain can track everything, even religious prophecy has become a tradeable commodity.
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