Why the dominance of Japan’s ruling party won't end after Sunday's vote

As Japan heads into a pivotal election this Sunday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) face their biggest electoral challenge in over a decade.

Plagued by corruption scandals and dwindling popularity, the LDP could struggle to hit its goals, raising questions about Ishiba ’s future just weeks after he assumed office.

But even if Ishiba takes responsibility and steps down as party leader and prime minister, it won’t topple the LDP’s hold on power. Here’s why.

The rise of LDP

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) emerged in 1955 from the merger of two major conservative forces — the Liberal Party and the Japan Democratic Party —just as left-wing groups unified under the Socialist Party. Together, they shaped Japan’s postwar politics, with conservatives aiming to prevent the spread of communism in the US-occupied nation.

The LDP’s rule has only been interrupted twice, first from 1993 to 1994 and again from 2009 to 2012, each time following bribery scandals. Many credit the party with steering Japan’s remarkable postwar recovery, ultimately transforming the country into one of the world’s leading economies by the 1980s.

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Over time, the LDP’s dominance became the norm, overshadowing its smaller rival, the Socialist Party, whose ambition to govern gradually faded, earning it the label of “perennial opposition.”

In 1994, the LDP joined forces with the Socialists in a trilateral coalition, which lasted until the LDP reclaimed sole control in 1998. The Socialist Party has since rebranded as the Social Democratic Party.

The LDP’s brief loss to an eight-party coalition led by the Japan New Party, following major bribery scandals, prompted reforms to the electoral system. This new system aimed to encourage two-party competition and curb pork-barrel politics.

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Changes in leadership

Japan’s current electoral system combines single-seat districts with proportional representation, meaning LDP candidates only face opposition rivals, not internal competition. This system allows the LDP to focus its political resources on one candidate per district, strengthening its hold in key areas.

LDP lawmakers are loosely unified by shared conservative values, a commitment to strong defence policies, and a common goal to revise Japan’s US-drafted, war-renouncing constitution.

Rather than ideological divides, recent LDP divisions have largely stemmed from in-party factions vying for funding, influence, and key government roles. This factional competition has resulted in frequent leadership changes and a succession of short-lived prime ministers. However, Tomoaki Iwai, a politics professor at Nihon University those government changes are meant to regenerate the party.

This trend continued when Shigeru Ishiba replaced his unpopular predecessor, Fumio Kishida , who resigned amid public backlash over a slush fund scandal. As leader, Kishida dissolved most formal LDP factions and revised a political funding law, though many voters and critics found these measures insufficient.

Today, only one of the LDP’s six original factions remains formally intact. However, influential figures like Kishida and his former faction members unified behind Ishiba in the recent party leadership vote.

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Weak opposition

The main opposition is the liberal-leaning Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, but the party has struggled to build momentum despite the LDP scandals. Its newly elected leader, centrist former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, is pushing a conservative shift for the party to attract swing voters, saying that “a change of government is the most effective political reform.”

Media analysts expect his CDPJ to significantly gain ground in Sunday’s elections, but not enough to change the government. That’s because the opposition groups are too fractured.

“I plan to vote, but the opposition won’t be my choice,” said Kanako Ojima, 48. “I don’t think I want to let the opposition take the helm again. … I think after all it is the LDP that has a long-term vision."

The defunct Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which Noda once led, toppled the LDP in 2009, but lasted only three years, struggling through the 2011 triple disaster of a massive earthquake, tsunami and nuclear meltdown in Fukushima.

The DPJ’s inexperience and shaky handling of the crises disappointed the public and paved the way for the LDP’s big comeback in 2012. Since then the LDP has not faced serious challenges.

Unlike 2009, there is little voter interest in getting rid of the LDP. In fact, it has has built its juggernaut of support through a network of bureaucrats, businesses and regional leaders.

It also enjoys strong support among older conservatives, especially in rural areas, industry organisations, fisheries, agricultural cooperatives and religious groups.

Taizo Yoshida, a 45-year-old office worker, said he doesn’t want a change of government and hopes to see Ishiba push through reform. “I don’t think the opposition has the ability to run the government,” he said, though he’d like to see a viable opposition in Japan.

“This party has more of a track record of getting things done,” Rintaro Nishimura, a political analyst at the Asia Group, a strategy and business advisory organization, said of the LDP.

With younger people increasingly unhappy about the lack of LDP policies addressing their worries, there may be future changes, but not any time soon. “There is still too much of uncertainty over what the opposition can do."

With inputs from AP