The election of many firsts: Why Jammu and Kashmir Assembly polls matter

Jammu and Kashmir is holding Assembly elections after a decade. The first phase of the polls is being held today (September 18), with the remaining two phases on September 25 and October 1.

Of the 90 Assembly constituencies in J&K, voting will be held on 24 seats on Wednesday – 16 in the Kashmir province and eight in Jammu. The main parties in the fray are the National Conference (NC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP).

Let’s take a look at what the election means for Jammu and Kashmir.

First Assembly polls in 10 years

J&K is holding Assembly elections after about 10 years. The last polls were held in 2014 when a voter turnout of 65.5 per cent was recorded.

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Mehbooba Mufti’s PDP and the BJP had joined hands to form a government at the time. The alliance collapsed in 2018 when the saffron party withdrew support over differences.

While J&K saw the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, 2019 and 2024, the last Assembly elections were conducted in June 2014.

Jammu and Kashmir recorded the highest voter turnout in a Lok Sabha election in 35 years this time. The overall turnout for the five Lok Sabha seats of the Union Territory was 58.46 per cent.

People in J&K have been waiting for 10 years to vote for a new government. With these polls, that wait is finally over. All eyes will be on the voter turnout for the Assembly elections.

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“The most important message that the Assembly election sends out is that India continues to cement its hold over Jammu and Kashmir,” Lt Gen (Rtd) Syed Ata Hasnain told India Today TV.

First election since Article 370 abrogation

The Assembly elections assume all the more significance as these are the first polls since the Centre revoked Article 370 , which gave special status to Jammu and Kashmir, in 2019.

The erstwhile state was also bifurcated into two Union Territories – J&K and Ladakh. These are the first Assembly elections in the J&K since it was stripped of statehood.

The PDP and Omar Abdullah’s NC have promised to restore Article 370 and statehood to J&K. In its election campaign, the Congress – which is fighting the polls in an alliance with the NC – vowed to bring back J&K statehood but remained silent about the UT’s loss of special status.

The BJP has also promised to reinstate J&K’s statehood, which is a big issue in these elections.

The Assembly polls are expected to bring much-needed political stability to the region after years of turmoil.

The participation of even separatist leaders in the polls shows the shift in the political narrative in Kashmir. Tooba Punjabi, a researcher, told BBC, “There has been a complete overhaul of traditional political narratives. Earlier, public boycotts defined elections. But now, it’s a means of putting the right party in place to undo [the] damage.”

As per a Deccan Herald article, the Assembly elections are a way for people, especially in Kashmir, to “reclaim” a political identity that has “felt diminished” since the erstwhile state was split into two Union Territories.

The electors will go to the ballots to choose their representatives who can listen to their grievances and be accountable to them.

Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) chairman Ghulam Nabi Azad said after the polls were announced, “The troubles that people have faced for the past 10 years will end after this election”.

First polls after delimitation

These are also the first Assembly elections in J&K after the delimitation exercise in 2022.

The process consisted of redrawing the boundaries of parliamentary and Assembly constituencies based on the 2011 population data. The delimitation commission has added six more Assembly seats to Jammu and one to Kashmir, taking the total tally to 43 and 47, respectively.

While Jammu has been a stronghold of the BJP, it has limited influence in Kashmir. It will be known after the results whether the delimitation exercise worked in favour of the saffron party.

Road to statehood?

People in J&K want its statehood back. With the erstwhile state downgraded to the UT, the powers of the elected government would be limited. Many key areas, such as law and order and land issues, are under the Centre’s control.

“The elections are significant and non-significant at the same time. They are significant because they are being held after a long time and people will get to elect their representatives, and also because this will serve as a message of how people are angry and rue the changes,” Professor Noor Muhammad Baba, a regional political analyst, told DW.

However, he warned that the government will have “little power.”

With all major political parties promising to restore statehood, J&K is likely to soon get its statehood back.

“I am very positive that statehood is the next step, which is not very far away,” SY Qureshi, former Chief Election Commissioner, told India Today TV.

With inputs from agencies