 "Union Home Minister Amit Shah, Jammu and Kashmir BJP President Ravinder Raina, Union Ministers Jitendra Singh and G Kishan Reddy and others release the party's election manifesto ahead of the state Assembly elections, in Jammu, September 6, 2024. File Photo/PTI")
After skipping all three Lok Sabha seats in the Kashmir Valley, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has decided to contest only 19 of the 47 Assembly seats in the region. The saffron party has fielded candidates on all 43 Assembly seats in Jammu, which is its stronghold.
“The BJP has finalised its list of candidates for the Kashmir region. Out of 47 seats, the BJP will contest 19 in the Kashmir Valley,” the BJP said. “No new list of candidates will be announced,” the party confirmed in an official release on Wednesday (September 11) evening.
Jammu and Kashmir will go to polls in three phases, with voting on September 18, September 25, and October 1, to elect 90 members. Results will be declared on October 8.
Why is the BJP not contesting all seats in Kashmir? What are the challenges and advantages for the party? Let’s take a look.
BJP skips 28 seats in Kashmir
The BJP’s announcement to not field candidates for 28 seats in the Valley comes after Union Home Minister Amit Shah regretted the decision to skip contesting all three Lok Sabha seats in the region while interacting with party leaders in Kashmir.
He had declared the BJP would contest all 90 Assembly seats in J&K, asking the party leaders and workers to start preparing for the polls. The saffron party won two seats in these Lok Sabha elections in the Jammu province.
The BJP insiders told Indian Express that the saffron party was not “expecting any miracles” in Kashmir, calling it a “tactical” move not to field candidates on all seats in the Valley.
“Our leadership knows that the BJP does not have a serious chance of winning a seat in the Valley except one Srinagar seat. So all the candidates who have been fielded are kind of dummy candidates… The party’s focus is on the Independents and some political parties that could help it come to power,” a BJP leader was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
Rafiq Wani, the party’s candidate from Anantnag in South Kashmir, has reportedly openly admitted that the new regional political parties and Independents in the Union Territory were “ours”. “Engineer Rashid is ours, Sajad Lone too, Altaf Bukhari is also ours, and Nabi Azad (Ghulam Nabi Azad) also. The Independent candidates also belong to us,” he said at a party meeting, as per Indian Express.
The BJP’s rivals in J&K – the National Conference (NC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) – have made similar claims of the saffron party promoting “proxy” Independent candidates and small parties to dent their votes.
As per India Today, the BJP hopes the votes in the Valley will be split among the NC, PDP and smaller parties.
What works for BJP in J&K polls
The BJP has strong chances in Hindu-majority Jammu. The saffron party has an added advantage in the Assembly elections due to delimitation.
In Jammu, six more seats have been added by the delimitation commission, taking the total tally to 43. One seat was increased in the Muslim-majority Kashmir Valley, increasing the total number to 47.
The proportion of Assembly seats in Jammu has jumped from 42.5 per cent to 47.8 per cent, while it has declined in Kashmir from 52.9 per cent to 52.2 per cent, reported India Today.
This could benefit the BJP in the upcoming polls for the UT. Over the years, the saffron party has improved its performance in the five Muslim-majority districts of Jammu — Doda, Poonch, Rajouri, Kishtwar and Ramban, noted India Today.
In February, the Central government passed the “Scheduled Tribes Order amendment bill” for J&K, which accords scheduled tribe status to Pahari, Padari, Koli and Gadda Brahmins – most of whom are from the Jammu region. As per a Moneycontrol report, the J&K BJP expects this will work in favour of the party in the elections.
The new act of the UT allows the J&K Lieutenant Governor (LG) to nominate five members to the Assembly who will have voting rights. This is another advantage for the BJP, the report noted.
These polls are significant as Assembly elections are being held in J&K after a decade, and five years after Article 370 was abrogated. These are the first elections after J&K’s statehood was withdrawn and it was split into two Union Territories – Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.
If the BJP can come to power in J&K, with the help of smaller parties, it will be “seen as a mandate in favour of the revocation of Article 370,” as per Moneycontrol.
What are the disadvantages?
The BJP has hardly any chances in Kashmir. So far, the saffron party has failed to open an account in the Kashmir Valley in Assembly polls.
If Lok Sabha polls are any indication, the saffron party’s popularity in the UT has plunged. The BJP’s vote share declined from 46 per cent in 2019 to 24.4 per cent in 2024.
The question of statehood is a big one as J&K votes in the coming days. People’s grievances over the withdrawal of statehood could dampen the BJP’s prospects, as per Moneycontrol.
The infighting within the party could also hurt its chances. Senior BJP leaders are already irked with the party leadership over ticket distribution for the polls. The saffron party has fielded Congress and the PDP turncoats in the election, angering the party’s old guard.
Former BJP Jammu district president, Kashmira Singh, and senior party leader, Chander Mohan Sharma, resigned over ticket distribution.
Speaking to Indian Express, a senior BJP leader in Srinagar said, “Many of us are already hurt and angry. We have given crucial years of our lives to the BJP. We have stood for the BJP when no one would (in the Valley). When it was time to reward us, the party didn’t trust us. They either skipped the seats or fielded candidates who are new to the party.”
While the BJP is expected to win most seats in Jammu, the recent surge in militant attacks in the region could pose a challenge. However, Rekha Chowdhary, author and former political science professor at Jammu University, believes otherwise. She told Hindustan Times, “There is concern about the rising militant attacks in Jammu, but this is not an ’election issue’ for the public. The attacks won’t affect the political landscape here, though there’s been a shift in militant activity.”
With inputs from agencies