One week into Israel-Iran conflict, which country holds the advantage?

The decades-old conflict between Israel and Iran that was never quite “cold”, intensified last Friday (June 13) when the Jewish nation launched Operation Rising Lion, a wide-ranging aerial offensive that targeted nuclear and military sites deep within Iranian territory.

Today, seven days later (June 20), the hostilities continue and there’s fear that the United States will join in — though we shall only now know in two weeks’ time after Donald Trump gave a new deadline to Tehran.

The question that people are now asking a week into the hostilities is — who has the upper hand in this conflict? Has Iran run out of options in this battle?

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Damage inflicted by Israel and Iran

An assessment of the destruction of military and civilian site is one of the ways to gauge who has the edge in this conflict. And both sides have caused significant damage to one another. However, it seems that Israel holds the edge — causing significant damage to Tehran’s nuclear facilities as well as military sites.

On Thursday, Israel attacked Iran’s Arak heavy water reactor, one of the country’s largest nuclear facilities, located 250 kilometres southwest of the capital Tehran. In addition to Arak, Israel has also struck Natanz — Iran’s largest uranium enrichment centre. The UN nuclear watchdog initially reported that the strikes had damaged only the aboveground part of the enrichment plant. It later revised its assessment to confirm “direct impacts” on underground enrichment halls.

Israel also struck Iran’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Furthermore, at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed since the attacks began, according to multiple sources in the region. The Israeli military said nine of them were a “key element” in Tehran’s pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

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However, Fordow and Bushehr have remained largely unaffected by Israel’s strikes.

Israel’s strikes have also degraded Iran’s missile capabilities. Several Israeli strikes targeted a missile base in Kermanshah, where missile storage buildings can be seen with damage in a satellite image taken on June 15.

On Thursday, Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Kan public broadcaster that at least half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed. The Israel Defense Forces also echoed similar comments saying 40 per cent of Iran’s launchers had been destroyed.

In addition to military targets, Israel has also targeted Iran’s energy infrastructure. The Jewish nation has struck Tehran’s main gas depot and its central oil refinery, according to a statement from Iran’s oil ministry. The ministry said Israel had also targeted a section of one of the world’s largest gas fields. Video posted to social media even showed a large fire burning at the Shahran oil depot, north of Tehran.

Israeli aircraft also struck the headquarters of Iran’s state broadcaster in Tehran causing a live broadcast to be briefly interrupted. The Israeli military said it targeted a “communications centre of the Iranian regime”.

In return, Iran has also extracted its pound of flesh; it has hit residential areas in the Jewish nation, decimated Israel’s ‘crown jewel of science’, the Weizmann Institute of Science, and even struck the Soroka Hospital in Beersheba.
According to Iranian media, on Saturday, Iranian missiles landed just 300 metres (984ft) from the Israeli Ministry of Defence headquarters (the Kirya) in Tel Aviv. Also, another strike hit the Weizmann Institute of Science, one of Israel’s leading research centres, located in Rehovot, south of Tel Aviv. The institute is reported to have collaborated with the Israeli military, making it a significant target.

Several metropolitan areas have also been damaged by Iranian strikes. In Ramat Gan, a city adjacent to Tel Aviv, missiles struck several towers and residential complexes, causing significant damage and forcing evacuations. Local authorities reported that nine buildings were destroyed.

The nearby city of Petah Tikva was also hit by missile strikes that damaged both residential and commercial areas while in Bnei Brak, a religious school was destroyed. Bat Yam, which is south of Tel Aviv, has also witnessed significant damage.

In northern Israel, Iranian missiles struck Haifa’s Bazan petrochemical complex, the country’s largest oil refinery, forcing a shutdown of operations. Haifa suffered a second missile strike, which hit several residential buildings in the Neve Sha’anan neighbourhood.

And on Thursday, Iran also took aim at a hospital in the Israeli town of Beersheba, forcing the staff of Soroka Medical Centre to move most of its patients to other hospitals. The strike shattered windows, hurling glass across the hospital, brought ceilings crashing down, destroyed medical equipment and left corridors in disarray.

“It’s so sad, I never thought something like this could happen. Never. It’s only medical professionals here, and patients… and look what happened to us,” Wasim Hin, an ophthalmologist at Soroka Medical Centre, told AFP. “Here we have new equipment, everything was destroyed.”

Deaths keep mounting

On Thursday, a body of an Ukrainian woman was recovered from a building struck by an Iranian missile four days earlier, Israeli officials said. Maria Peshkarova, 31, is the ninth victim of the Sunday hit in the city of Bat Yam, taking the overall death toll in Israel to 25 since the war began, according to authorities.

Meanwhile, Iran said Sunday that Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people, including military commanders, nuclear scientists and civilians. Authorities have not issued an updated toll since.

Iran has lost several high-ranking officials including Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami and Ali Shadmani, Iran’s wartime Chief of Staff during Israel’s Operation Rising Lion. In fact, Shadmani was appointed to the chief of staff position after the death of Mohammad Bagheri on Friday.

In addition to Shadmani and Bagheri, Israel has also eliminated commander-in-chief of the IRGC, Hossein Salami, deputy commander-in-chief of the armed forces and the head of the IRGC’s Khatam-al Anbiya Central Headquarters Gholamali Rashid and commander of the IRGC’s Aerospace Force Ali Hajizadeh to name a few.

Israel has also threatened to eliminate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei with Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, declaring on Thursday that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “can no longer be allowed to exist”.

Israel takes control of Iranian skies

The other aspect where Israel seems have an edge over Iran is that it has declared aerial supremacy over Tehran. Four days into its ferocious air campaign, the Israeli military said that it could now fly over the country’s capital, Tehran, without facing major resistance after crippling Iran’s air defences in recent strikes, enabling Israel to hit an expanding range of targets with relative ease.

According to military analysts, such control over Iran’s skies is not just a tactical advantage but also a strategic turning point. Air supremacy gives Israel the freedom to escalate its bombing campaign, look for additional targets, and possibly redraw the rules of deterrence in a region where missile salvos and proxy wars have long defined the limits of conflict.

But how did Israel achieve this aim? By using US-supplied planes such as the F-15 and F-16 as well as the customised F-35 stealth fighter jet. Moreover, Israel has also the Iron Dome and Iron Shield systems, with an interception success of over 90 per cent for short-range rockets and missiles.

But there are reports that Israel is depleting its supply of long-range missile interceptors. The Wall Street Journal citing a source said that Israel can maintain its missile defence for 10 or 12 more days if Iran maintains a steady tempo of attacks. “The system is already overwhelmed. Soon, they may have to choose which missiles to intercept,” the source said.

But Iran could still turn the tide

While Israel awaits Donald Trump’s response to joining the strikes, all isn’t lost for Iran. As Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute who specialises in Iranian security affairs, told TIME, “Iran has turned out to be much weaker than we had assumed, and yet it’s still standing.”

Interestingly, Iran’s proxies — which include Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis and Shiite militias — haven’t waded into the conflict yet. On Thursday, Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem pledged “all forms of support” to Iran in its fight against Israel and the United States, saying Iran’s nuclear programme is peaceful and aims to serve its people.

In a speech on Thursday night, Qassem said, “It does not harm anyone in the slightest way; rather, it represents a great scientific contribution to the advancement of Iran and the region, relying on its own capabilities without foreign tutelage.”

He also accused the world of opposing Iran not because of its nuclear programme, but because it stands for “faith, knowledge, and freedom” and benefits “the oppressed”. Reaffirming Hezbollah’s alignment with Tehran, Qassem urged support for Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. “We call on all free people, the oppressed, the resistance fighters, scholars, and those with sound opinions to raise their voices loudly and demonstrate strength, courage, and support by rallying around the noblest and most honourable leadership of Imam Khamenei,” he said.

Moreover, Yemen-based Houthis also said that the group will intervene to support Iran against Israel like it did in support of Palestinians in Gaza. Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi movement’s political bureau, also reiterated to Al Jazeera Mubasher TV that the group is coordinating with Tehran during its ongoing military escalation with Israel.

Besides Iran’s proxies, Iran could also call on its international allies, namely Russia and China, to put pressure on Israel. Russia has already called on the US to not enter the war, saying such a move would be “extremely dangerous” and could lead to “unpredictable negative consequences.” The Kremlin has already called for a ceasefire in the hostilities, saying that diplomacy, not force, should be used to end the violence.

China has also condemned Israel’s attack and has called on both sides to de-escalate. A wider, regional conflict would raise China’s risk-to-benefit calculus as it would threaten its regional economic, namely energy, interests.

With inputs from agencies