 "Americans protest the Israeli strikes on Iran and any potential US involvement in the conflict during a \"No War on Iran\" demonstration outside the White House in Washington, DC. US President Donald Trump said on June 18 that he was still deciding whether to join Israel's strikes on Iran, claiming Tehran now wants talks at the White House but may have waited too long. AFP")
Is Donald Trump in or is he out? That’s the question the whole world is asking as the Israel-Iran war enters Day 7 and he keeps offering mixed signals about his stance — he said on Wednesday that he was still deciding whether to join Israel’s strikes on Iran, claiming Tehran now wants talks at the White House but may have waited too long.
But while he continues to flip-flop on the Israel-Iran conflict publicly, reports have emerged that the US is preparing for the possibility of a strike on Tehran in the coming days. Moreover, the Wall Street Journal earlier reported that the US president had told aides he had approved attack plans for Iran , but was holding off to see if Iran would give up its nuclear programme.
All of this comes as Iran and Israel continue to trade military hostilities — on Thursday (June 19) early morning, the Israel Defense Forces said it was currently conducting “a series of strikes” in Tehran and other areas of Iran. Moreover, the Jewish nation has also issued an evacuation warning to residents in western Iran’s Arak and Khondab, saying: “Your presence in this area puts your life at risk.”
‘I may do it, I may not do it’
Ever since the military hostilities broke out between Israel and Iran, US President Donald Trump has been issuing mixed messages. On day one of the operation (June 13), he stressed that Iran still has “a second chance” to negotiate a deal with the US on its nuclear programme. “There is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end,” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
But gradually things began to change; on June 16, while at the G7 summit in Canada, Trump assured that Iran “basically is at the negotiating table. They want to make a deal. And as soon as I leave here we’re going to be doing something.”
However, a day later, Trump quickly shifted; he suggested his appetite for negotiating has waned. “They should have done the deal,” Trump said on Air Force One on his way back from Canada. “I told them, ‘Do the deal.’ So I don’t know. I’m not too much in the mood to negotiate.”
Then later on the same day, he issued what many perceived was his final push to the other side when he demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and issued threats against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
And on Wednesday, he took it further, saying, “I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do,” about the US joining Israel’s strikes on Iran, adding, “I can tell you this, that Iran’s got a lot of trouble, and they want to negotiate.”
He further stated that “the next week is going to be very big” when it comes to determining Iran’s fate.
The US president also stated that Iran was reaching out to try to strike a deal. “They want to come to the White House, I may do that,” Trump said. He added however that it was “very late to be talking… There’s a big difference between now and a week ago.”
However, Iran has denied it offered to send officials to Washington. “No Iranian official has ever asked to grovel at the gates of the White House,” Iran’s mission to the United Nations posted on X.
The signs to look out for
Those closely watching events unfold in West Asia believe that there are sufficient signs that show Trump is ready to join Israel’s strikes against Iran.
Firstly, Trump’s messages indicate his willingness to join the war. He also held a meeting with his advisors in the Situation Room wherein they discussed US options. Moreover, there are reports that Trump will hold another meeting in the Situation Room on Thursday.
Not only this; the US Embassy in Jerusalem also announced that it will remain closed from Wednesday through Friday. “As a result of the current security situation and ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the US Embassy has directed that all US government employees and their family members continue to shelter in place in and near their residences until further notice.”
Moreover, Washington has been has been redirecting military assets to West Asia. According to one US official, there are an estimated 40,000 US troops in the region with at least 30 US military planes being moved from bases in America to Europe. Also, the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier is sailing toward West Asia from the South China Sea, along with several guided missile destroyers. Other warships are positioned in the Gulf of Oman and Persian Gulf, and have already helped Israel shoot down Iranian missiles. Washington has also moved F-16, F-22 and F-35 fighter jets to bases in the Middle East, according to the Reuters news agency.
Perils of US wading into Israel-Iran conflict
But while Trump seems poised to join the campaign against Israel, not everyone thinks it’s the right decision for Washington. Many within his administration as well as his Maga (Make America Great Again) support base believe that entering the conflict would only prolong it further.
In fact, Iran has warned the US of directly entering the conflict with Deputy Foreign Minister Majid Takht-Ravanchi telling CNN, “If the Americans decide to get involved militarily, we have no choice but to retaliate wherever we find the targets necessary to be acted upon. That is clear and simple. Because we are acting in self-defence.”
Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, DC, also told CNN, “Any attack by the US will lead to full-scale attack by the Iranians against US bases in the region, and a full-scale war between the US and Iran.” He further added that while Tehran may not be able to sustain a long fight with the US, it won’t be an easy war for Washington either.
Ryan Crocker, a distinguished chair in diplomacy and security at RAND, also observed that the US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict could result in Tehran blocking the Straits of Hormuz , attacks on the energy infrastructure of the Arab Gulf, or attacks on US military and diplomatic targets in the region.
Dr Dara Conduit, a fellow and lecturer in political science at the University of Melbourne also echoed similar sentiments, saying the US involvement in the conflict between Israel and Iran is a “scary proposition”. US involvement “would completely change the way the war is being waged by Iran,” Conduit told BBC. “It would remove any ability for Iran to back down,” she said, adding that Iran would be forced into attacking US interests in West Asia.
It remains unknown what Trump’s next steps would be in regard to the Israel-Iran conflict. However, if public support is a sign that he may follow, then it seems that the US president may opt to steer clear of direct involvement — as an Economist/YouGov poll conducted over the weekend revealed that 53 per cent of voters who backed him in the 2024 presidential election do not want the country to join in Israel’s strikes.
With inputs from agencies