 "Israel-Hezbollah conflict: Is Lebanon on the brink of a new war like in 2006? What happened then?")
The border between Israel and Lebanon has once again erupted into conflict, with Hezbollah and Israeli forces exchanging fire in what has been described as a dangerous escalation.
The situation worsened dramatically this month, when Hezbollah confirmed that its leader, Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike last week.
The Israeli military claimed the building targeted was above Hezbollah’s headquarters, and the strike also resulted in the deaths of Ali Karki, the commander of Hezbollah’s southern front, and several other senior commanders.
Israel has since intensified its airstrikes, hitting dozens of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley and southern regions.
The ongoing air campaign followed a deadly attack on September 17, when thousands of pagers belonging to Hezbollah operatives across Lebanon exploded, injuring about 2,800 people, most of whom were Hezbollah members, and killing dozens, including three civilians. Hezbollah has blamed Israel for the attack and vowed retaliation.
This escalating confrontation follows nearly a year of rising tensions. Since October 2023, Hezbollah has been launching attacks on Israel in response to its war on Gaza, which has killed over 41,500 people.
The region is now on the brink of a full-blown war, marking the most serious conflict between Israel and Hezbollah since the 2006 Lebanon War.
What happened the 2006 Lebanon War?
The last major war between Hezbollah and Israel occurred in the summer of 2006 and lasted 34 days. Known as the July War in Lebanon and the Second Lebanon War in Israel, it began on July 12, 2006, when Hezbollah fighters launched a cross-border raid into Israel, killing three Israeli soldiers and capturing two others.
Israel responded with a large-scale military operation, aiming to rescue the abducted soldiers and dismantle Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in southern Lebanon.
Israel’s military campaign in 2006 included a massive air and artillery bombardment, targeting Hezbollah positions and Lebanese civilian infrastructure, including Beirut’s airport, bridges, and roads.
Hezbollah retaliated by firing thousands of rockets into northern Israel. Despite Israel’s superior air power, the conflict quickly escalated into a ground war, with Israeli forces entering southern Lebanon.
During the war, approximately 1,200 Lebanese people were killed, most of them civilians. Human Rights Watch reported that 43 Israeli civilians were killed by Hezbollah rocket fire, while 120 Israeli soldiers died in combat.
More than 4,400 Lebanese were wounded, and hundreds of thousands of people were displaced on both sides of the border, with about a million Lebanese fleeing their homes and up to 500,000 Israelis being evacuated from the north.
What was behind the 2006 Lebanon War?
Israel entered the 2006 conflict with four key objectives: to secure the release of the captured soldiers, weaken Hezbollah, prevent further Hezbollah incursions into Israeli territory, and press the Lebanese government to exercise greater control over Hezbollah.
However, by the time a United Nations-brokered ceasefire went into effect on August 14, 2006, Israel had failed to achieve a decisive military victory.
The conflict was widely considered a military failure for Israel. The Winograd Commission, established by the Israeli government to investigate the war, harshly criticised the military and political leadership, stating, “Israel initiated a long war, which ended without its clear military victory. The government’s most senior civilian and military leaders failed completely to understand and internalise the fact that they had signed up, in effect, for a full-fledged war, not just a retaliatory operation.”
The commission also pointed out that Israel’s heavy reliance on airstrikes failed to stop Hezbollah’s rocket attacks, which continued throughout the war. Ground forces were eventually deployed, but the report criticised their lack of preparedness, noting that the military’s ground operations were poorly coordinated and ineffective in achieving the war’s goals.
How did the 2006 Lebanon War end?
The war ended with the passing of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, and the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in southern Lebanon.
By early October 2006, most Israeli troops had withdrawn from Lebanon, though they continued to occupy the border-straddling village of Ghajar for some time.
The ceasefire brought an end to the immediate hostilities, but it did not resolve the underlying issues. Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon continued to grow, and its leadership claimed victory in the 2006 war, despite the heavy casualties and destruction.
Similarly, Israeli leaders also claimed strategic success, though the Winograd Commission and many military experts disagreed. The ceasefire created an uneasy peace, but it did not disarm Hezbollah or eliminate the threat of future conflict.
How has Hezbollah grown since the 2006 Lebanon War?
Since the 2006 war, Hezbollah has strengthened its political and military position in Lebanon. The group entered Lebanese parliamentary politics in 1992 and held significant influence, controlling 62 of the 128 seats in Lebanon’s parliament at the time.
It also runs extensive social programs in the areas where its support is strongest, such as the Bekaa Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut. Hezbollah’s close ties with Iran and its involvement in regional conflicts, particularly in Syria, have only increased its battlefield experience and military capabilities.
In 2009, Hezbollah updated its manifesto, reaffirming its opposition to Israel and maintaining its role as a resistance movement while committing to integration into Lebanon’s political system.
Hezbollah’s military engagement in the Syrian civil war, where it supported the regime of Bashar al-Assad, further bolstered its strategic position and strengthened its ties with Iran.
Will the current conflict surge into a new war in Lebanon?
The current conflict between Hezbollah and Israel is a stark reminder of the unresolved tensions from the 2006 war. Both sides have been preparing for years for the possibility of renewed hostilities.
Israel’s assassination of senior Hezbollah commanders and continued airstrikes on Hezbollah positions have only fueled the group’s determination to retaliate, with Nasrallah’s killing marking a potential turning point.
Also Watch:
The ongoing violence, displacement, and casualties echo the events of 2006, but with the stakes even higher given the broader regional context. Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, its growing military capabilities, and the tense situation in Gaza all contribute to the increasing possibility of another full-scale war.
Both Israel and Hezbollah have claimed that they do not want a war, but the events of recent weeks suggest that both are rapidly being drawn into one.
With inputs from agencies
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