Israel-Hamas war: Will attack on US bases by Iran proxies in Syria widen West Asia conflict?

A number of drone attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq, coming in the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas war, are raising fears about a war breaking out across the region. According to the Pentagon, 21 servicemen have reported minor injuries and one civilian contractor died of a heart attack in attacks from Iran-backed groups that began on 17 October. On Friday, the US hit back by striking weapons and ammunition facilities in Syria used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and militia groups after an order from President Joe Biden. Let’s take a closer look at how tensions are raising fears of war breaking out in the region. What happened? Iran-backed groups are continuously attacking US and coalition troops in Iraq and Syria. The White House on Monday said the US had recorded “an uptick in rocket and drone attacks by Iranian-backed proxy groups against military bases housing US personnel in Iraq and Syria”. It added that it is “deeply concerned about the potential for any significant escalation of these attacks in the days ahead”. Iran backs a number of outfits in the region including Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and Hezbollah.

According to Reuters, there have been at least 19 attacks on bases.

NBC News quoted Pentagon press secretary Brigadier General Pat Ryder as saying the strikes were a “mix of one way attack drones and rockets.” The 21 US military personnel suffered minor injuries, but all have since returned to duty. Time Magazine reported that the Islamic Resistance in Iraq put up a number of videos on Telegram of drones flying into the desert sky. The videos are accompanied by texts that warn of more strikes and asking the public to keep away from military bases. While the outlet could not confirm the veracity of the videos, it cited metadata as showing that the videos matched the days when US bases were attacked. While the Pentagon has no proof Iran directly ordered the attacks, a senior official told Time Magazine, “It’s fair to say when you see this uptick in activity and attacks by many of these groups, there’s Iranian fingerprints all over it.” [caption id=“attachment_13305972” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Pentagon spokesman Air Force Brigadier General Patrick Ryder speaks at the Pentagon on Thursday, AP[/caption] While the number of groups backed by Iran in the region remains unclear, Time Magazine quoted experts as saying it falls between 10 and 20. “There’s at least 10 or 20, if not many more groups between the Iraq-Syria border alone,” Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran expert at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told the outlet. A source told CNN that Tehran’s influence over the groups cannot be denied but that whether these groups are acting on their own remains an open question. The US, which has backed Israel but called for humanitarian aid for Gaza, has warned of more strikes if the Iran-backed groups don’t halt their attacks. ‘Unacceptable and must stop’ The US air strikes took place at roughly 4:30 am on Friday near Abu Kamal, a Syrian town on the border with Iraq, and were carried out by two F-16 fighter jets using precision munitions, a US defence official said. “These precision self-defence strikes are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups that began on 17 October,” US defense secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement. “These Iranian-backed attacks against US forces are unacceptable and must stop,” Austin said. Biden has sent a rare message to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning Tehran against targeting US personnel in West Asia, the White House said earlier on Thursday. “My warning to the ayatollah was that if they continue to move against those troops, we will respond, and he should be prepared,” Biden was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera.

The US president added that it has “nothing to do” with Israel.

“There was a direct message relayed. That’s as far as I’m going to go,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters, declining to say how it was delivered. “What we want is for Iran to take very specific actions, to direct its militias and proxies to stand down,” a senior US defence official said. The United States did not coordinate the air strikes with Israel, the official added. Austin also sought to distance the strikes against facilities used by the IRGC in Syria from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas members in Gaza. “These narrowly tailored strikes in self-defence were intended solely to protect and defend US personnel in Iraq and Syria,” he said. “They are separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and do not constitute a shift in our approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict,” he added. The United States has sent warships and fighter aircraft to the region over the last three weeks. On Thursday the Pentagon said about 900 more US troops have arrived in West Asia or are heading there to bolster air defences for US personnel. Iran, meanwhile, has said it cannot stand idly by while Israel bombs Gaza. [caption id=“attachment_13199122” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei on Tuesday claimed that Israel has “suffered an irrevocable defeat both in terms of military and intelligence. Reuters[/caption] Iran’s foreign minister Hossein Amirabdollahian warned at the United Nations on Thursday that if Israel’s retaliation against Palestinian militants Hamas in the Gaza Strip doesn’t end then the United States will “not be spared from this fire.” CNN quoted Amirabdollahian as saying that the region is currently a “powder keg.” “Any miscalculation in continuing genocide and forced displacement can have serious and bitter consequences, both in the region and for the warmongers,” Abdollahian warned. “If crimes against humanity do not stop immediately, there is the possibility at any moment that the region will go out of control,” he added. What do experts say? That Washington is walking a tightrope. Speaking to The Guardian, Charles Lister, director of the Syria and countering terrorism and extremism programmes at Washington’s Middle East Institute said: “The US has now had two dozen soldiers injured. In any other conditions it would have responded but its hands are tied because it does not want to be blamed for escalating. The US government is very concerned that we are walking into a regional crisis.” “The attacks show that Iran has an extensive network of well-armed, aggressive and well-coordinated proxies across the region which it has established for exactly this scenario. They are currently testing redlines but not pushing too hard. They are putting the onus on the US to respond.” Tobias Borck, a senior research fellow in Middle East security studies at London’s Royal United Services Institute, warned that Iran was “literally playing with fire”. “What we are seeing is the next level out from the Gazan war. This is all carefully calibrated to show solidarity. Iran is saying: we see the aircraft carriers but we are not scared and we can hurt you too. It is incredibly dangerous,” Borck added. “A lot of people want to understand it as Tehran pulling the strings but … actually these are partners who share a worldview and ideology. One element is claiming the mantle of leading the opposition to a western-imposed order in the region.” Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at the Naval Postgraduate School, told Time Magazine, “You don’t launch rockets and missiles and armed drones into populated areas such as bases without a willingness to kill.”

“And if you’re going to commit lethal attacks, the escalatory ladder or dynamic that follows is never a sure thing.”

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Ryder warned that things might get worse. “What we are seeing is the prospect for more significant escalation against US forces and personnel across the region in the very near term coming from Iranian proxy forces, and ultimately from Iran,” Ryder was quoted as saying by NBC News. “We always reserve the right to defend ourselves and we will never hesitate to take action when needed to protect our forces and our interests overseas,” he added. With inputs from agencies