Israel-Hamas war: Could Russia benefit from conflict?

Iran isn’t the only one standing to benefit from the war between Israel and Hamas. The conflict could also benefit Russia which is currently entangled in a ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. This, even as defence secretary Lloyd Austin on Wednesday announced that the United States would provide a new $200 million military assistance package for Ukraine. The package includes air defence munitions, artillery and rocket ammunition and anti-tank weapons, among other items, the US defence chief said. But how could the Israel-Hamas war help Russia? Let’s take a closer look: The conflict could distract the West’s focus from providing Ukraine with weapons and funding. Bloomberg quoted two people in the know, speaking on condition of anonymity, saying that the Kremlin knows what the war in Israel will be of service to Russia. Though Moscow is itself concerned about the war further intensifying, the Kremlin says it might at a minimum take away the West’s attention from the situation in Ukraine. Washington has committed more than $43 billion in military assistance to Kyiv since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022 – more than half of all international security assistance for Ukraine.

Zelensky himself has expressed concern about support for Ukraine possibly waning.

“I want to be honest with you, of course it is a dangerous situation for people in Ukraine,” Zelensky was quoted as saying by The Guardian. Zelensky, who visiting NATO headquarters, added, “If there are other tragedies in the world, there is only a certain amount of military support to share, and Russia hopes that support will be divided.” Though the United States has already begun delivering munitions to Israel, Ukraine need not worry about their supply of weapons being interrupted – for the moment at least. [caption id=“attachment_13194412” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed concern that the Israel-Hamas war could distract the West’s attention from Ukraine. PTI[/caption] Experts say there is little overlap between weapons needed by both countries to fight their wars. However, Israel launching a ground invasion of Gaza could result in the depletion of its arms and ammunition. Mark Cancian, a former US Marine colonel who is now an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, told Bloomberg, “That’s when they’ll start using munitions in a big way—precision munitions—and they’ll probably use a lot of them” “They may not have enough for a long campaign,” Cancian added. Though Israel needs precision weapons to deal with the urban warfare setting rather than unguided munitions, Ukraine also needs sophisticated arms to hit Russian bases behind enemy lines. “The problem is we can’t manufacture any more in a short period of time,” Cancian added. He mentioned that US inventory of such munitions has already been depleted and that shipments to Ukraine, while not halting may slow down. TASS earlier quoted Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov as saying Vladimir Putin’s objectives would be attained quicker if fewer Western weapons found their way to Ukraine. Lavrov added that the tasks would be “accomplished in any case”. It could also boost Russia’s coffers thanks to an increase in oil prices. “As oil prices go up, this enables them to continue spending on arms production and it also helps them cover some budget deficits,” Ann Marie Dailey, a policy researcher at Rand Corporation was quoted as saying by Bloomberg. “Russia absolutely gains an advantage from this in the short-term.” What do experts say? Euronews quoted the Institute for the Study of War as saying Russia could use the Israel-Hamas war to further its narratives including that Western support for Ukraine will inevitably decline. Russia already seems to be hard at work doing so. A piece in The Telegraph pointed out that the Kremlin is already pushing the line that the West is responsible for the Israel-Hamas war. It noted Russian Security Council chairman Dmitry Medvedev’s social media post that the West should have been focusing on the Israel-Palestinian issue rather interfering in Russia’s affairs. A piece in The Conversation noting that Washington’s attention has been refocussed diplomatically, noted that the flow of weapons being stymied to Ukraine would be a great gift for Putin. “The conflict could also divert military equipment to the Middle East rather than to Ukraine. How large the diversion of arms is depends upon whether Israel chooses to try to reoccupy Gaza or not,” the piece noted. [caption id=“attachment_13239002” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Smoke rises from an explosion caused by Israeli airstrikes on the border between Egypt and Rafah, Gaza Strip. AP[/caption] The piece also contended that the conflagration in Israel may also reduce the willingness of Ukraine’s friends to keep spending big to support it. “It might do so because the implications of a wider Middle Eastern conflict, or China opportunistically attacking Taiwan, would outweigh the consequences of continued hostilities in Ukraine,” the piece added.

It also stated that Putin will not be upset if the conflict further devolves in the weeks and months ahead.

A Politico article said the Russian president would be happy to add fuel to the fire. “The Kremlin’s crowing propagandists are already spreading a narrative that a Middle East war is a win for Russia and the money for Ukraine will dry up,” the piece stated. A piece in The Telegraph UK noted that part of Putin’s strategy is to drain Ukraine of Western support and sow discord in its allies. “Moscow sees violence in the Middle East as an effective way to divert US political bandwidth from the Ukraine war, as well as military resources,” the piece noted. The US, meanwhile, has insisted it “will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes” as Opposition from hardline Republican lawmakers puts future aid for Kyiv in doubt. “I’m proud that the United States will announce its latest security assistance package for Ukraine, valued at $200 million,” Austin said alongside President Volodymyr Zelensky at the opening of a meeting of Kyiv’s international supporters in Brussels. This is the first package announced since Congress dropped new funding for Kyiv earlier this month from a bill to avert a US government shutdown – a move that called into doubt Washington’s continued commitment to aiding Ukraine’s fight against invading Russian forces. The Politico piece stated that the conventional wisdom in Washington is that the Hamas attack coupled with the race to succeed Kevin McCarthy as Speaker will take away the US’ attention from Ukraine. “The race to succeed McCarthy is unfolding now, making it more difficult for the Biden administration to gain congressional approval for any additional aid it may want to give Israel,” the piece noted. [caption id=“attachment_13220442” align=“alignnone” width=“640”] Republicans vying to replace Kevin McCarthy as House Speaker have struck a dour note on funding for Ukraine. Reuters File[/caption] Zelensky himself seemed to strike a more downbeat tone. “There will be challenges with the American elections, and I talked to our partners and they said the support will stay, but who can tell that the support will stay, nobody knows,” he was quoted as saying by The Guardian. “Am I scared assistance will decrease? There are risks because of all those reasons you described, but that’s not just a risk for Ukraine,” he said. “If you don’t help Ukraine, Russia will gain power and the war will not end, Russia will move forward in EU countries. The cheapest option for everyone is stop warfare in our country and to get them out of our territory,” he added. Zelensky claimed Russia would make use of the Israel war to achieve its goal of “permanent destabilisation” and “decreasing assistance to Ukraine”. Others say the US may be forced into a stark choice in the future. “Given a choice between Israel and Ukraine, the US would—in a heartbeat—choose Israel,” Chatham House CEO Bronwen Maddox told Bloomberg TV. “I can understand why President Zelenskyy might be worried—and he was already battling to retain American attention.” Then there’s the ‘X’ factor – Trump being re-elected in 2024. The Conversation piece astutely noted that a new president taking office, along with Republican leadership raising a furore about backing Ukraine monetarily and Washington’s focus on Israel will all be factors in how the Ukraine war plays out. “If the war in Ukraine is still raging in 2025, it will be Russia with the upper hand," the piece predicted. With inputs from agencies