Israel-Hamas Gaza ceasefire: What happens after phase 1 ends?

The initial phase of the ceasefire that halted 15 months of intense conflict between Israel and Hamas is set to conclude on Saturday, leaving uncertainty about what comes next.

Both sides were expected to begin negotiations weeks ago on a second phase, in which Hamas would release all remaining hostages from its October 7, 2023, attack — an event that triggered the war — in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire, and a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

However, these negotiations have yet to start, apart from preliminary discussions. The first phase itself has been marred by a series of disputes.

During the six-week ceasefire ending on March 1, Hamas released all 25 living hostages agreed upon in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

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Additionally, it returned the bodies of four captives and is expected to hand over the remains of four more between late Wednesday and early Thursday.

That would leave 59 captives still in Hamas’ custody, of whom 32 are believed to be deceased. Israel is set to release over 600 Palestinian prisoners, most of whom were due for release last weekend. However, it delayed the process in protest over the way hostages were publicly paraded upon their release.

Israel is reportedly seeking to extend the first phase in an effort to secure the freedom of additional captives, though negotiations for the second phase are expected to be even more contentious.

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The second phase presents the biggest challenge

This next phase was always anticipated to be the most difficult, as it forces Israel to weigh two competing priorities — ensuring the hostages’ safe return and eliminating Hamas.

Despite being weakened, Hamas remains in control of Gaza with no internal challengers. In exchange for releasing the remaining hostages — its most significant bargaining chip — it is demanding a lasting ceasefire and a full Israeli military withdrawal.

A third phase would focus on exchanging the remains of deceased captives and beginning Gaza’s reconstruction, a process expected to take years and cost billions.

Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s Middle East envoy, told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday that he hoped to extend Phase 1 to allow time for discussions on the second phase.

However, Egypt, a key mediator, has insisted that talks on Phase 2 must begin before it will consider an extension of Phase 1, according to two Egyptian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to brief the media.

A source familiar with the negotiations stated that the mere initiation of Phase 2 talks would ensure the truce remains intact, per the agreement’s terms, reported AP. This would mean a continued cessation of hostilities and ongoing aid deliveries to Gaza, though no further hostage releases beyond what has already been negotiated.

One of the Egyptian officials also indicated that Egypt is demanding Israel complete its withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor, located along Gaza’s border with Egypt, before advancing to the next phase.

The agreement stipulates that this withdrawal should begin over the weekend and conclude within eight days.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has not yet disclosed his plans for the weekend. He is facing mounting pressure from hardline coalition partners to resume military operations against Hamas, while also contending with public outcry over the condition of the freed hostages, which has intensified calls for the return of those still held.

Witkoff stated that Netanyahu remains committed to securing the release of all hostages but has drawn a “red line” that prevents Hamas from having any role in Gaza’s governance after the war.

Netanyahu has also rejected the involvement of the Western-backed Palestinian Authority, which is dominated by Hamas’ rival, Fatah.

Hamas has expressed willingness to transfer control of Gaza to other Palestinians.

However, the group — which does not recognise Israel — would still retain a strong presence in the region. It has maintained that it will not disarm unless Israel withdraws from the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem — territories captured in the 1967 Middle East war that Palestinians seek for a future state.

Hamas has also dismissed Israel’s suggestion that its leadership in Gaza go into exile.

Phase 1 remains unfinished

The first phase of the ceasefire is still incomplete and has only deepened animosity on both sides.

Israelis were appalled by footage of captives — some appearing frail — being paraded before crowds upon their release, with some forced to smile, wave, make statements, and, in one instance, kiss a masked militant on the head. Upon returning to Israel, several hostages reported enduring harsh treatment while in captivity.

Last Thursday, Hamas presented coffins containing what it claimed were the remains of Shiri Bibas and her two young children, stating they had been killed in an Israeli airstrike. Israel’s forensic investigation determined, however, that the children had been killed by their captors.

The third body in the coffin was found to be someone else. Hamas later handed over another body, which was confirmed to be the mother.

On Saturday, Hamas filmed two hostages being forced to watch the release of others and pleading into a camera for their own release. The move, widely seen as another public spectacle, angered Israel and appeared to contribute to its decision to delay the release of Palestinian prisoners.

Hamas has accused Israel of violating the ceasefire by killing dozens of people whom the Israeli military said had approached its forces or entered restricted zones.

The group also accused Israel of stalling the entry of mobile homes and rubble-clearing equipment, which were only allowed into Gaza late last week. Additionally, it alleged that Palestinian prisoners were beaten and abused prior to their release.

Meanwhile, Israel has launched a significant military operation in the occupied West Bank, which the United Nations says has displaced approximately 40,000 Palestinians. Israel insists the operation targets militants who threaten its security, while Palestinians view it as an effort to entrench Israel’s decades-long control.

Trump sends mixed signals

United States President Donald Trump has taken credit for the ceasefire, which Witkoff helped finalise after more than a year of negotiations spearheaded by the Biden administration, Egypt, and Qatar.

However, Trump’s messaging on the deal has been inconsistent.

Earlier this month, he set a strict deadline for Hamas to release all hostages, warning that “all hell is going to break out” if they failed to comply. But he later stated that the decision ultimately rested with Israel, and the deadline passed without consequences.

Adding to the confusion, Trump suggested relocating Gaza’s approximately two million residents to other countries and proposed that the US take control of Gaza to develop it.

Netanyahu welcomed the idea, but it was unanimously rejected by Palestinians and Arab nations, including close US allies. Human rights organisations argued that such a move could violate international law.

Trump reiterated his stance during a Fox News interview over the weekend but clarified that he was “not forcing it.”

With inputs from AP