 "1 year, 10 months & counting: Why Israel can't bring its war in Gaza to a close")
Israel is on the brink of launching another major offensive, this time in famine-stricken Gaza City.
The international community, along with nearly all Palestinians and many Israelis, wanted the war to end a long time ago — and a ceasefire seemed possible as recently as last month. So why is the conflict set to become even bloodier, nearly two years after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack?
Critics of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accuse him of prolonging the war for political reasons. Netanyahu blames Hamas, which still holds around 20 living hostages, and says criticism of Israel’s wartime conduct is only making the militant group more intransigent.
US President Donald Trump says he wants the war to end and the hostages to come home. But his envoy, Steve Witkoff, walked away from ceasefire talks last month, blaming Hamas, and the president has exerted no public pressure on Israel to change course since it ended a ceasefire in March that he helped broker. It’s unclear if the US is pursuing a different strategy behind the scenes.
Hamas said last week that it accepted a ceasefire proposal that mediators described as being nearly identical to one Israel had approved. The US and Israel have yet to respond publicly. It’s unclear if the allies, which have recently hinted at seeking a comprehensive deal, are working on something behind the scenes.
Here’s a closer look at why the war continues with no end in sight.
Netanyahu isn’t interested in ending Gaza war
Israelis have joined mass protests calling for a ceasefire that would bring the hostages back. They say the war continues because Netanyahu is trying to stay in power.
Netanyahu’s governing coalition depends on far-right parties that want to continue the war until Hamas has been annihilated, facilitate the mass relocation of Palestinians to other countries, and rebuild Jewish settlements that Israel dismantled in 2005.
Impact Shorts
More ShortsThey have threatened to bolt if Netanyahu ends the war short of total victory. Opposition parties say they will step in and preserve his government if he reaches a hostage deal, but that would still leave Netanyahu severely weakened ahead of elections next year.
Losing office would leave the Israeli leader far more vulnerable to long-standing corruption charges and to public inquiries into the failures surrounding the October 7, 2023, attack.
Netanyahu denies any such motives. He says the war must continue until all the hostages are returned and Hamas is defeated, and that any agreement leaving the militant group intact and armed would allow it to eventually rebuild and carry out another major attack.
ALSO READ: Why has UN declared a famine in Gaza City now? How bad is the situation?
Hamas unlikely to surrender
Netanyahu says the war could end tomorrow if Hamas releases the hostages and lays down its arms.
But he has also said Israel will maintain open-ended security control over Gaza and facilitate what he calls the voluntary emigration of much of Gaza’s population.
Palestinians and many others say that would amount to forced expulsion — and it’s a nonstarter for Hamas.
The militant group has said it is willing to release the remaining 50 hostages — less than half believed by Israel to be alive — in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, a lasting ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal. It has also said it would hand over power to other Palestinians.
But it has ruled out laying down its arms or going into exile.
Even if Hamas were to agree to disarm, it would be difficult to verify. Other armed groups might soon replace Hamas at the vanguard of what many Palestinians — even opponents of Hamas — see as legitimate armed resistance to military occupation.
That’s what happened when the Palestine Liberation Organization, the leading militant group of its day, agreed to go into exile in Tunisia after Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Hamas burst onto the scene in Gaza at the start of a Palestinian uprising five years later.
From Hamas’ perspective, giving up arms would leave Palestinians defenceless in the face of Israel’s ongoing military rule and expansion of settlements on lands they want for a future state. In their eyes it would all but doom that national aspiration.
Trump doesn’t seem to press Israel for ceasefire
In June, Trump sealed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after ordering Netanyahu — by phone and social media post — to call off a wave of airstrikes. The stunning intervention in an ongoing Israeli military operation was a powerful demonstration of the United States’ leverage over its close ally.
There has been no sign of that with the war in Gaza.
Trump has demanded that Hamas release the hostages while exerting no public pressure on Israel to halt or even curtail its operations — as former US President Joe Biden tried to do with limited success.
Beyond providing billions of dollars worth of arms to Israel, the United States has shielded it from UN calls for a ceasefire, sanctioned international judges pursuing Israeli officials, cracked down on campus protests, and even threatened Canada with higher tariffs over its stance on the West Asian conflict.
The influence of other countries over Israel, including the more than 30 Western-aligned nations that have called for the war to end, pales in comparison.
Any pullback in US support would alarm Israelis and might force Netanyahu to make concessions leading to a ceasefire — but there’s no sign of that. And it’s unclear what further pressure could be brought to bear on Hamas in Gaza after nearly all of its top leaders and thousands of fighters have been killed in one of the deadliest and most destructive military onslaughts since World War II.
On Monday, Trump told reporters there might be a “conclusive ending” in Gaza in the next two to three weeks, without elaborating.
“I think we’re doing a very good job,” he said. “But it does have to, it does have to end.”
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