All-out war or fight from the shadows? How will Iran respond to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination?

The world is on tenterhooks after Hamas’ top political boss, Ismail Haniyeh, was assassinated on Wednesday (July 31) while he was in Tehran for the swearing-in ceremony of new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

Hamas and Iran have both blamed Israel for the assassination while the latter has chosen to remain silent on the issue. Shortly after the news broke that Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne projectile”, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said revenge was “our duty” and that Israel had “prepared a harsh punishment for itself”.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard warned Israel will face a “harsh and painful response from Iran and its allies in the region.

The assassination and the ensuing rhetoric have raised the spectre of an all-out war between Iran and its arch-rival, Israel.

We take a closer look at how Iran could respond and what it means for the region and its stability.

How was Ismail Haniyeh assassinated?

On July 31, Haniyeh , who is the top political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the wee hours while he was residing in a building in Tehran, which is reserved for Iranian military veterans.

Iranian state media reported that an “airborne projectile” struck the building where Haniyeh was staying, killing him and his bodyguard, later identified as Wasim Abu Shaaban.

Haniyeh was in Tehran for the inauguration ceremony of moderate President Masoud Pezeshkian and hours before he was killed was seen warmly embracing Pezeshkian on the floor of the parliament following his oath of office, as lawmakers and officials chanted slogans in support of the Palestinian cause.

Notably, hours before the news broke of Haniyeh’s killing, Israeli warplanes bombed a residential building in a southern suburb of Beirut, targeting Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr . At least three people, including the Hezbollah commander, were killed and more than 70 others were injured.

How have Iran and allies reacted?

Haniyeh’s assassination drew widespread anger and condemnation from Iran and its allies, targeted at Israel. The new Iranian President Pezeshkian said his country would defend its territorial integrity and honour, and make the “terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly action”.

Hamas’ armed wing threatened “enormous consequences” for the whole region. The group said in a statement that Israel “miscalculated” by killing resistance leaders and violating the sovereignty of Iran and Lebanon. “The criminal assassination of leader Haniyeh in the heart of the Iranian capital is a watershed and dangerous event that takes the war to new levels and will have enormous consequences for the entire region,” the group said

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Israel had provided the grounds for “harsh punishment for itself” and it was Tehran’s duty to avenge Haniyeh’s death.

Other nations such as Qatar and Egypt were also critical of the killing. Both have been playing a mediating role in the negotiations for a cease-fire and the release of hostages.

“Political assassinations and continued targeting of civilians in Gaza, while talks continue, leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?” Qatar Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on social media.

How will Iran retaliate?

Haniyeh’s assassination has prompted heavy rhetoric, but will it extend beyond words? Geopolitical experts say it will.

The New York Times, citing three Iranian officials, two of which in the Revolutionary Guards, has reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has already “issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’ leader, Ismail Haniyeh”.

According to the report, the order was given during “an emergency meeting of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council on Wednesday morning.”

This raises fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran, plunging the region of West Asia into a deeper abyss.

Experts also note that Iran will definitely retaliate, but it will be interesting to see how far they will go. Retired US Marine Colonel Stephen Ganyard, a former deputy assistant US Secretary of State, told ABC News, “Now will Iran go to war over a Hamas leader that was killed on its soil? They will have to retaliate in some way because, obviously, they’re humiliated by Israel’s ability to take out a leader on their own soil.”

However, the real challenge for Iran is how far it is going to go because Haniyeh was not “one of its guys”, noting that Hamas is a Sunni organisation and the leadership of Iran is Shia. “So are you really going to start an all-out war with Israel based on somebody from one of your proxies, but not even a co-religious [person]?” Ganyard said.

Iran could retaliate the way it did in April in response to the Israeli airstrike in Damascus, Syria , that killed seven people, including a top Iranian commander — Mohammad Reza Zahedi and his deputy. Then Tehran launched 300 drones and missiles toward targets in Israel. However, Israel said 99 per cent of the drones and missiles fired by Iran were intercepted by the country’s Iron Dome defence system.

Regional analyst Avi Melamed, in a USA TODAY report, said that Iran could also use its proxies, including Hezbollah, to target Israel in retaliation. Likely targets would be significant Israeli military installations rather than civilians or civil infrastructure, he said.

“The calculation against a direct response likely includes the understanding that a direct attack on Israel could potentially reinitiate the US-led defensive coalition,” Melamed said. “Iran is walking a tightrope in needing to respond without sucking itself and Israel into a broader pattern of escalation that brings a significant Israeli response to its homeland.”

Analysts also note that an Iran response is necessary if the country wants to maintain its image. Moreover, they state that an Iran action would also serve as a deterrence against Israel killing other powerful enemies, like Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, or General Ismail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Forces who oversees the militant groups outside Iran.

What could be the impact of Iran’s response?

Iran’s response, either direct or indirect, could be disastrous for the West Asian region. Experts note that the assassination of Haniyeh and any likely retaliation would complicate the Gaza ceasefire talks , despite the catastrophic humanitarian situation and growing international pressure to stop it.

However, despite it all, analysts say it is not in Iran’s interest to throw itself into all-out war with Israel. Joost Hiltermann, Middle East programme director at the International Crisis Group, told AFP that Iran would “unleash its allies only when its vital interests have been harmed, and this is not the case”.

But as CNN notes, it is a mess that grows, and with it surges the chance of the unexpected.

With inputs from agencies