 "Soldiers take part in the first day of the annual Han Kuang military drills at an abandoned amusement park in Taoyuan, Taiwan, July 22, 2024. File Image/Reuters")
Taiwan’s military is facing a critical shortage of personnel, a challenge exacerbated by growing cross-strait tensions with mainland China.
Legislative data reveals a troubling rise in early discharges among volunteer soldiers and officers, with 1,565 personnel opting to leave the service in 2024, compared to just 401 in 2020.
Despite the financial penalties imposed on those leaving early, this trend continues to gain momentum, raising serious concerns about Taiwan’s defence readiness.
Volunteer soldiers form the backbone of Taiwan’s armed forces, receiving more extensive training compared to conscripts who serve only one year. The steady decline in these trained professionals has left Taiwan’s military operating at just 78.6 per cent of its capacity in 2024, significantly below the generally accepted minimum operational standard of 85 per cent.
KMT legislator Wan Mei-ling described the situation as “alarming,” warning that Taiwan’s defences are increasingly vulnerable amid escalating military threats from China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
What is contributing to this crisis?
The Taiwanese defence ministry attributes the personnel shortfall to multiple factors, including a declining birth rate, a competitive civilian job market, and insufficient benefits for military service members.
Observers also point to heightened operational pressures stemming from near-constant PLA fly-bys and drills, which have fuelled resignations among service members.
The ministry has announced several measures to address these challenges, such as relaxing management policies, easing recruitment restrictions, and increasing salaries. However, these efforts may not be enough to reverse the downward trend.
Between 2022 and mid-2024, the number of volunteer personnel shrank by 12,000, reaching a six-year low of 152,885 in June 2024.
Professor Alexander Huang of Tamkang University was quoted by The Eurasian Times who highlighted the gravity of the situation, noting that the legislative budget centre projected
Taiwan’s active-duty force could drop to approximately 145,000 troops in 2025 if current trends persist. This would represent a significant reduction from the 164,000 personnel recorded in 2021.
What could be the solution?
In light of these challenges, Taiwan is exploring unconventional strategies to bolster its military ranks. One such proposal involves creating a “foreign legion” to enlist foreign nationals, drawing inspiration from similar models in other countries.
KMT legislator and retired Admiral Richard Chen Yeong-kang suggested that foreign volunteers could be granted citizenship after completing a designated period of service, reported The Eurasian Times.
However, this idea remains in its infancy, with lawmakers and security experts stating the need for thorough discussions at multiple levels of government.
Taiwan is home to approximately 950,000 foreign residents, including 750,000 foreign workers, predominantly from Southeast Asia. If implemented, the proposal could help address the manpower shortage, but its feasibility and public acceptance are yet to be determined.
Why is this crisis coming at a bad time?
Taiwan’s military challenges come at a time of heightened tensions with China. The PLA has intensified its activities around the island, conducting a record number of military drills and fly-bys in 2024.
These actions are widely viewed as preparations for a potential invasion, a threat that Chinese President Xi Jinping has not ruled out.
Former Taiwanese armed forces head Admiral Lee Hsi-min categorised the PLA’s strategies into four escalating phases: intimidation through gray-zone warfare, coercive blockades, punitive missile attacks, and full-scale invasion.
In recent years, Taiwan has experienced daily incursions into its air defence identification zone (ADIZ), with over 3,000 PLA aircraft entering the zone in 2024 alone.
Adding to the island’s vulnerabilities, Chinese ships have allegedly damaged undersea communication cables vital for Taiwan’s connectivity. Such tactics are expected to be a precursor to any major offensive, aimed at disrupting communication and coordination.
What next for Taiwan and its military?
To strengthen its defence capabilities, Taiwan has already extended mandatory military service from four months to one year and increased its defence spending.
The island has also drawn lessons from Ukraine’s response to Russia’s invasion, enhancing its civil defence efforts. Despite these measures, experts caution that more comprehensive and immediate actions are necessary to address the evolving security environment.
KMT legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin highlighted another critical issue — unmet expectations among recruits. “Many recruits feel misled about the benefits of volunteer service. After three or four months, they realise the reality does not match the promises and decide to leave,” she said.
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With inputs from agencies